Agreed.

I always sell too early but will take a hit rather than average down.

DH = David Horgan,MD PET

mclellan - 23 Oct'07 - 11:51 - 10686 of 10690


here is Steve B's take on possible events

"Tomgiles, Fiona, my prediction on order of play:

- S&L: will be pre HCL at this rate, as already initimated by the MOU, and maybe consolidation rather than rsa at this stage subject to terms and HCL passing, etc

- Block 6 - dependent on HCL law passing, and subsequent negotiations to improve terms in line with new law, important signal to the sunni minority and will help general consensus methinks

- Merjan - seismic well underway, I asked DH at the AGM whether Merjan was bigger than the 760m published numbers, he said much bigger, they just weren't sure how big

- Halfaya - DH kept emphasizing that he was being pointed in this direction by the MOU / government, this could surprise everyone as there will be a push for big developments on the bacl of the new law, this could queue jump, wouldn't surprise me, only issue is that DH sais nothing is signed on this yet, Petrel has announced Dhufraya ahead ofanything on Halfaya, so still some way to go, relatively.

- Dhufraya - looking at pace of developments on Merjan, could be six-nine months away to any risk sharing

Let's see waht happens, any one from 5 would be very nice indeed!

Keep the faith,"

Lex1000 et al - many thanks for all your comments - only just had time to check in again v briefly this evening.

I am learning to be more patient, and to think about which shares are a long-term hold. It's just that sometimes I have had a lovely profit and then it's turned back into the red - hence my reaction to sell when I see a good profit, before it all slips away! But I can see now that some companies can continue to keep growing for the foreseeable future, and that the odd dip here and there should not faze me. It's a learning curve - the sort of steep one that I love to see in the sp!

jecs - 23 Oct'07 - 20:27 - 10797 of 10812


INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Press Release No. 42
October 22, 2007

Statement by the Hon. BARHAM AHMED SALIH,
Governor of the Fund for IRAQ,
at the Joint Annual Discussion

Extract:
Improved prospects for oil production and economic growth will be contingent on the completion of planned investments in the oil sector.

We are working to bring the negotiations on the hydrocarbon law
to closure if and when enacted, this law will cause the
restructuring of the oil sector and will provide a conducive
investment environment to unlock Iraqs real potential as an oil
producer. I am hoping that year 2008 will witness major
improvement in our production and export levels.


http://www.imf.org/external/am/2007/speeches/pr42e.pdf

nsbbda - 23 Oct'07 - 23:24 - 10817 of 10817


elmfield.... It does look promising again tomorrow.Waiting for the real break- out over 160p,then we should see some shuffleing for a position.
I do find it strange how many posters keep refering to 5 quid a pop.JF said that when oil was $50 a barrel.Personally i think we can upgrade his prediction somewhat.I would hate to see people top slicing/profit taking to early.Certainly if we get two or more contracts in quick succession.
nsbbda

Tick up^ First mention by me on MoneyAM 60p-70p. Multi-bag potential.Time to research PET only if you want to.

Tick up^ German Stock Exchange (GSE) buying at roughly 146p a share.UK to follow...L2 firming.

Bid 138.5p max-37.5k v Offer 140.4p max-10k

Tick up^ GSE

Tick up^ UK

On line quotes: 139p max-37.5k v 142p max-10k. Resistance @ 140p.

Buy low.Sell high.PET uptrending.Run profits let trend be your friend.Keep buying,adding & holding.aimvho.dyor.

ciao4niao - 25 Oct'07 - 18:00 - 11256 of 11261
bairnboy

This kind of summarises all you really need to know about the last 10 days events

chway14 - 14 Oct'07 - 10:18 - 86 of 88

Because of DH's reply (INDICATIONS ARE POSITIVE) on future contracts, this needs listing on this thread for future reference.

Subject: FW: petrelresources.com RF:62155ac

Indications are positive.

From: petrelresources.com cf [mailto:info@petrelresources.com]
Sent: Fri 10/12/2007 10:23 AM
To: Petrel Resources (info@petrelresources.com)
Subject: petrelresources.com RF:62155ac

\\ Contact Form:
Site: www.petrelresources.com
Name: John

Date: 12/10/2007 10:23:46
\\ Message:
Attn. of David Horgan.
Dear David,
With the HCL dragging on and no sign of any future contracts yet in Iraq, a few pessimistic investors are saying that Petrel may not get any contracts after the HCL.
From your hints over the last few months and especially at the Dublin and London meetings recently, you seem quite sure we will get some contracts.
Can you confirm that you are still positive on your contract views.
I am not going to ask you about the HCL as nobody really knows.
Please keep your good work which is greatly appreciated.
Many thanks.
John

mclellan - 16 Oct'07 - 15:24 - 9155 of 9220

And, as if by magic!!

David Horgan (dhorgan@cooleywhiskey.com)
Sent: 16 October 2007 14:18:41
To: Fiona *********@hotmail.com)

The placing was at the request of a founder institution that wanted to increase its stake. I called around the other institutions and all participated. This should show sceptics that Petrel is well supported.
Regards, David Horgan

-----Original Message-----

From: Fiona ********@hotmail.com>Date:
Tue, 16 Oct 2007 13:41:02
To:David Horgan
Subject: Share Placing
Dear David
I see there has been a placing of Petrel shares, amounting to about 4-5%. Presumably these shares have not gone to one 'institution' since there has been no RNS for an over 3%new holding. Would Itochu be allowed to take part in a share placing .. or is that a 'secret'?
Best wishes
Fiona


mclellan - 16 Oct'07 - 15:28 - 9158 of 9220

followed by

14:20:31
To: Fiona ********@hotmail.com)

I offered none to Itochu. They are visiting this week. We don't want them to seem like a poison pull, as arguably De Beers is at AFD.
Regards,
David Horgan

(poison 'pill', I presume)


mclellan - 16 Oct'07 - 15:46 - 9173 of 9222

I replied to David and received this:

De Beers is a great company and generously financing AFD. Yet the market perceives that they control AFD. We want to use Itochus credibility and balance sheet, without a similar effect.
Regards, David Horgan ----
-Original Message-----

From: Fiona ********@hotmail.com>Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2007 14:33:36
To:David Horgan
Subject: RE: Share Placing

Thanks, David

Yes, De Beers seem to cause their problems. I see some big B trades on AFD yesterday and that FDI have sold their stake. I am hoping that the Iraqis will get around to looking at the HCL in their next series of meetings, now that Ramadan is over, Eid is celebrated and consensus is building! Hope things are going well 'on the ground'.
Best wishes
Fiona


mclellan - 22 Oct'07 - 10:37 - 10414 of 10414

No problems with Itochu, folks...

RE: "The Visit"‏
From: David Horgan (dhorgan@CooleyWhiskey.com)
Sent: 22 October 2007 09:23:16
To: Fiona ********@hotmail.com)
They are an excellent partner, and like us impatient to advance.


barkerman - 22 Oct'07 - 13:02 - 10453 of 10458

RE: Technocrats‏
From: David Horgan (dhorgan@CooleyWhiskey.com)
Sent: 22 October 2007 12:28:37
To: peter barker (

yes

From: peter barker [mailto:]
Sent: 22 October 2007 10:55
To: David Horgan
Subject: Technocrats

Dear David Glad to hear the meeting with Itochu went well. In your opinion with the new positioning of Technocrats in the Iraqi government and quite a bit mentioning the Oil Gas law is in this terms agenda, are you confident that it will now at last be passed by Christmas at the latest? As for PET, thanks and keep up the good work. Best Regards Pete.

chway14 - 25 Oct'07 - 19:24 - 11262 of 11263


ciao4niao
Re your info. for Bainboy
If you have not got a copy of my e-mail from DH,here is a copy,

From: David Horgan
Date: 18/10/2007 10:08:35
To: John
Subject: FW: petrelresources.com RF:f51c055


We went to Tehran mainly to meet senior Iraqis.
Itochu is sending a high level delegation specificall to meet petrel.

________________________________

From: John Teeling
Sent: Thu 18/10/2007 08:28
To: David Horgan
Subject: FW: petrelresources.com RF:f51c055





-----Original Message-----
From: petrelresources.com cf [mailto:info@petrelresources.com]
Sent: 17 October 2007 19:32
To: Petrel Resources (info@petrelresources.com)
Subject: petrelresources.com RF:f51c055

\\ Contact Form:
Site: www.petrelresources.com
Name: John

Date: 17/10/2007 19:32:12
\\ Message:
Attn. David Horgan.
Dear David,
It was reported over the weekend that you were in Iran on Saturday.
Are you contemplating extending your oil explorations into Iran as well as Iraq and Jordan,or could it be that you were discussing oil fields close to the Iran/Iraq border.
Another point is the Itochu visit you mentioned this week,are they actually visiting Petrel Resources or just Ireand in general.
If positive,I think that both the above points bode very well for Petrel.
I like the way you have handled the recent placing.
Looking forward to an interesting reply.
Kind regards
John .

High risks of exploration are finding oil ,dusters adds to costs and costs of production.Iraq is low risk & low cost. The cost of
producing oil in the country, estimated at below 2 usd a barrel, is probably the
lowest in the world, according to industry experts.
Oil,billions of barrels of proven reserves means no risk.Estimated $30 trillions.No expert on oil,sounds good to me. PET recently saw senior Iraq officials in Tehran.Investors here know purpose of visit was mainly Iraq.Technocrats Iraq Ministry of Oil control awards of contracts.We are aware actions behind the scenes with technocrats,PET,Itochu and all eagerly want to proceed to Go.Mulling over recent placing which investors here on advfn know was at the request of Founder presumed Gartmore & Co.Timing & their keeness suggests that every day is a day closer.Without above information we would all be in the dark.In possession of additional information,knowledge,light to see bigger picture.PET has first advantage.Is it any wonder that those with cash have been buying & topping up.Fully invested patience to wait for things to unfold next few months & years.Apologies for going over & repeating same stuff.Incredulous those who appear to have short term memory loss and whose glass is half empty.

Glass half full.Exciting prospects.aimvho.DYOR.

Zak Mir target price 190p.

'Low Risk' - LoL

Perhaps low risk insomuch that finding oil should not be too dificult.

From a geopolitical perspective one of the most high risk oil stocks on the market. Iraq remains in meltdown and will remain so for the forseeable future, there is no solution in sight. The daily suicide bombings and death squads are no longer reported, it's sadly 'old' news; this lack of news casts a false impression to the rest of the world who mostly no longer care. Throw into the mix the very strong possibility that the good 'ol US of A will have a pop at Iran either this year or next and the whole Middle East will become even more unstabilised than it already is.

Lex, perhaps when posting ramptastic charts of CNE as to what PET may achieve you should offer a balanced view by posting the other 99% of oil stocks that climb and then tank in spectacular fashion!

Anyway, gonna have a shufty at the TA prospects of PET and see wot's in the tea leaves :)

pth

Holden,welcome back.Risky short.Security improving.Your glass is always half empty.lol

MoneyAM investors had the same opportunity to add on weakness 20k @ 60.5p.My glass is half full. lol

superpete - 27 Oct'07 - 23:17 - 11486


petralva,disagree.Expect Petrel rise upwards trading above 150p.

nsbbda quite rightly points out HCL same as Petrel being awarded at least two contracts according to David Horgan.

List of contracts up for grabs.

.Block 6

.Merjan field

.Dhufriya - mentioned at AGM,confirmed in Interims.

.Subba & Luhais

.Halfaya

Petrel approached directly by IOM re:Halfaya.It is said 8-10 billions easy to get out.

Petrel ready to begin work immediately.

Petrel management bags packed in readiness to sign contracts immediately.

Educated guess Block 6, S&L, Halfaya star prize.

Petrel can do contracts on their own or can chose if company wants Itochu on board.Petrel can get all the money it wants from Itochu.No need to go to the market.[Surprised by recent placing until explanation by David Horgan published in copy of e-mail].

Agree Zak Mir's forecast of 190p in the scheme of things is conservative.Like his 90p target 190p within reach short term.imo

Simon K - 9 Aug'07 - 14:30 - 89902

Inevitable pi profit taking - all fairly modest, when you place this in the context of the buying that has propelled the share price of late. Who would want to buck the trend set by big professional investors, who have only just woken up to the potential of this company?

We breached 100p during Tuesday before some inevitable profit taking came in.

This is what professional investors should now be recognising - The Iraqi oil law will pass and with it there will follow the award of new oil contracts and ratification of old ones.

Very exciting!

Director Jim Finn tells us one contract is worth 500p a share - they could get 4 or more

PET are busy on the large Subba & Luhais contract, the largest awarded to date. It will produce 200,000 barrels of oil a day and 120 million cubic feet of gas when commissioned.

PET have the huge 10,000 km Block 6 in the Arabian Desert (from the days of Saddam), which the draft law tells us will be ratified. David Horgan tells us they have had the nod on this! They have been working there since 2000. There are 3 to 5 billion barrels recoverable.

Production costs in Iraq (the second largest oilfield in the world - some 115 billion billion barrels) are below $2 a barrel. Yet so far, there has, as we know, been relatively little oil exploration across the deserts of Iraq or at depth.

They are active on the Merjan oil field technical agreement and we have had sight (from their web site) of their involvement on Halfaya, which we are told is under discussion.

The Halfaya Super-Major discovered oil field is a multi-billion dollar project. This would require much larger funding (circa $200 m) though Itochu (Japanese backers for PET, one of the largest upstream gas and oil companies in Japan) have offered 100% financing on this as well.

(Away from Iraq - they have Jordan and the East Safawi Block, an 8,750 sq km area, was signed off in May 2007, under a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), for exploration and drilling)


I maintains this is the most exciting share I have come across in 20 years stockbroking.

PET have been working in Iraq when SH in power and under five successive governments.Advantage PET has over majors is that PET is established with Iraqi directors & workers, ready to work immediately whereas majors would wait a few years for securtiy to improve.Shares in issue increased from 69m to 72m.Contracts with proven oil reserves would make for very sexy chart.aimvho.

Simon K - 28 Oct'07 - 19:27 - 11514

I see that the US military will transfer the security of the southern Shiite province of Karbala to Iraqi forces by the end of the month, Karbala governor Akhil al-Khazali has told AFP this weekend. Karbala is a city in Iraq, located about 100 km southwest of Baghdad.

Tick up^

CNN news just reported that casualty figures overall in Iraq are the lowest for 3 years,and that Iraq may have turned the corner.
It also reported that US troops are utilising locals to clear drainage ditches
of reeds which could be used for hiding roadside bombs.It is useful income for the locals as the US are paying them for their work.

BBC news:


David Miliband welcomes Basra hand-over date
By Brendan Carlin, Political Correspondent and Megan Levy
Last Updated: 7:57pm GMT 30/10/2007



The prospect of thousands of UK troops returning from Iraq has drawn a step nearer after it was agreed to hand Basra province back to Iraqi control by the end of the year.


UK troops withdrew from Basra city in September
The Baghdad government said that Basra, the last Iraqi province still remaining under British security control, would be transferred over to the Iraqi authorities in December.

The move, announced by Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, was described by British defence sources as a necessary precondition for the planned withdrawal of more than 2,500 British troops from Basra next year.

Earlier this month, Gordon Brown unveiled plans to carry out the withdrawal, with roughly 2,500 troops due to remain for the foreseeable future.

In a joint statement, Defence Secretary Des Browne - who is currently on a visit to Iraq - and David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, welcomed Mr al-Malikis announcement.



"We are delighted that the Government of Iraq has announced its intention to transfer security responsibility for Basra province to the Iraqi authorities in December.

"This confirms the strategy of transition announced by the Prime Minister earlier this month and is firmly in line with the coalitions progressive handover strategy across Iraq.

advertisement
"We congratulate all of those who have helped achieve this, most notably British and Coalition military and civilian personnel," they said.

Basra is the last remaining Iraqi province under British security control, with the three other areas originally under UK supervision - Muthanna, Dhi Qar and Maysan - transferred to Iraqi forces over the last 18 months.

Mr Browne and Mr Miliband stressed that the decision to hand over security control of any of the provinces "is not made lightly and a rigorous assessment of both the prospects for enduring security and the capabilities of the Iraqi authorities has been conducted".

They also said that "the transition of Basra does not signal the end of our commitment to the people of Iraq" as British forces would continue to train Iraqi security forces as well as protect border and supply routes.

The announcement follows the British withdrawal from Basra city in early September, a highly significant event in the bloody four-year mission in Iraq.

Britain now has about 5,000 troops in the province, mostly located at the airport on the outskirts of Basra.

Earlier this week, it was announced that the British army had abandoned offensive military operations in Basra after striking a deal to stop fighting Shia militias.

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Wednesday , 31 /10 /2007 Time 5:14:14




Baghdad, Oct 31, (VOI)- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the visiting British Defense Secretary Des Browne on Wednesday that the work is underway to build the Iraqi armed forces to accelerate the handover of the security file throughout Iraq, asserting that Iraqi forces are ready to receive the Basra security file.


The Baghdad government had said that Basra, the last Iraqi province still remaining under British security control, would be transferred over to the Iraqi authorities in December.
"Our forces became ready to face challenges, bear responsibilities and hunt down for armed groups," al-Maliki said during his meeting with Browne at his office.
"The national reconciliation project will continue despite difficulties and obstacles made by some people," the premier said in a statement received by the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
For his part, British Defense Secretary Des Browne asserted his country's support to the Iraqi government and its desire to continue cooperation to achieve security and stability in the country, mainly in Basra.
The Media Spokesman for the Multinational forces in southern Iraq Major Matthew Bird told the VOI earlier that Browne discussed with the British Commander in southern Iraq, Major-General Jonathan Shaw, the handover of the security file in Basra.
Browne had arrived in Baghdad for an unannounced official visit on Wednesday morning.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said earlier this month that he believes Iraq can assume responsibility for security in southern Basra province from British forces within two months.
The British forces in Basra, 590 km south of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, keep 5,250 troops within the Multi-National Forces in Iraq after withdrawing 1,850 soldiers during the past few months.
Britain was the United States' prime ally in the March 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Basra is located 590 km south of Baghdad.