http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Pros - not good logic actually ...... as far as i can see, the selling is primarily from PIs who are either reducing their exposure intentionally (like me) or being forced out due to margins

Is it 15km or 15 miles apart..from Sealion....15km....11miles....you could see the other position if you were there..or the marker buoy....if that's what they use....very unlucky not to encounter hydrocarbons of some sort..I would think....

Actually its about 9.32 miles :-)

cynic, my continued RKH buying is based on the selling price come Xmas 2011, say 14 months from now.

During that time there will be at least 3, if not 5 or more wells drilled by RKH, Sea Lion will be appraised, new seismic and all sorts.

This is an investment, not a trade for me. They have oil, they likely have a giant of a find and I intend to benefit from it greatly.

You have already been told, in no uncertain terms, that Sea Lion is deemed commercially viable.

By whom exactly? A liar stood over a hole in the sea?

Looks like another one for the squelch function, why do these people turn up when the price is going down but are silent on the rise from 35p upwards..........

LOL :)

hilary is actually verging on correct, and indeed i was so corrected by halifax ..... as it stands, nothing is proven at all, but merely best guestimates, though that is indeed a very long way from someone telling deliberate porkies

Rockhopper is now considering raising more cash on the stock markets to fund further tests and exploration in the Sea Lion well only four months after raising 48.5m from its investors in June.

Rockhopper's independent technical consultants said the reserves could be almost a third less than estimated, after looking at the currently available data.

However, the company yesterday insisted that the discovery is still commercially viable, despite postponing publication of the consultants' report until more data has been gathered.

The shares tumbled share price dropped 97, or 21pc, to 363p, as investors fretted about a delay in obtaining new data until the second half of next year.

The frontier explorer is still hoping to prove that its reservoir holds 242m barrels of oil rather than the downgraded estimate of 170m barrels.

"The board is very confident about the commerciality of the Sea Lion discovery and the prospectivity of the North Falkland basin," the company said in a statement yesterday.

"In addition, the board is comfortable with the existing range of contingent resources as contained in the preliminary volumetric update published in June 2010."

The City has had high hopes for the company and its shares rose from 37p to a peak of 549p after it originally found recoverable oil in the Sea Lion block.

Analysts suggested the sell-off was overdone, noting the company's confidence that oil would still be produced from the field.

"The shares are likely to come under pressure but we would see excessive falls as buying opportunities," said David Farrell, an oil and gas analyst at Evolution Securities, the stockbroker.

The company is now planning additional drilling and said that "highly attractive new targets have been determined".

However, it is still a way off turning its finds into commercial wells.

This summer, Rockhopper awarded almost 1m in early bonuses to four executives before some key tests on the flow had been completed.

This was Rockhopper's third bonus pay-out to its directors in the last 16 months, after its annual report revealed there had been an "accelerated" incentive plan.

The oil explorer decided to give four directors an average of 225,000 each from their 2011 allowance on July 12 - three months after discovering oil at the Sea Lion well and four weeks before it found that the nearby Ernest well is dry.

Bonuses at the explorer, which made a 5m loss, have totalled 2m since March 2009.

The speeded up payments relating to 2009 and 2010 were a one-off move to "more accurately reflect the year being reported", according to the company.

Oil exploration in the islands off the coast of South America has sparked protests from Argentina, which claims the British territory.

almost lost in hyleo's post ......

Analysts suggested the sell-off was overdone, noting the company's confidence that oil would still be produced from the field.
"The shares are likely to come under pressure but we would see excessive falls as buying opportunities," said David Farrell, an oil and gas analyst at Evolution Securities, the stockbroker.

why do these people turn up when the price is going down

Errrr. Isn't it obvious why I'm here, or do I need to spell it out? Basically it's because I'm shorting them.

Me too. Join the gang!

Time to close it ...I would think....

Sorry, I'm not a part of any gang.

Time to buy as there is support this afternoon and the share are bouncing from a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

edit
moneyam playing games

from the "UPS" thread earlier ......

RKH

2 day of sharp fall and then bounce back, but this time has bounce from a 78.6% Fibonacci 322p

Intraday chart with bounce again at the end from the 340p support this afternoon

Don't think Fibbonacci is working in this case. We will see tomorrow.

I like the real story, not the BS from shorters. This from yesterday offers the full explanation.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26884726

Context for the Rockhopper beatdown today:

Disclaimer: This document is general market commentary and does not constitute a research report. This document is prepared by Canaccord Genuitys Institutional Sales for informational purposes only.


I saw Sam Moody CEO of Rockhopper this morning - I think today's move is a great BUYING opportunity.


The Chronological Order of Events

Pre drilling the CPR estimate by RPS was 170m barrels (P50)
The P90 - P10 range is 57m barrels to 670m barrels!
Post drilling all agreed there was more oil than expected so RPS upgrades estimate to 242m barrels
The stock rallies to 500p plus
We upgrade our target price to 641p - our valuation of Sealion (622p) & cash (19p)
Work continues on identifying the first appraisal well using Geo-physical data - designed to be pessimistic to eliminate 9 of the 10 potential sites for this well.
A potential capital raise required a confirmation of the CPR
The only 'new' data was the Geo-physical report - so this was made available to the CP
This is interpreted by the CPR as 'negative' and the estimate reduced to 170m barrels
As the company had that information it has to be released to the market
So today the stock is back 20% to 380p!



What has changed?

Only the CPR estimate!
There is NO new seismic data
There is NO new test data
Nothing has changed with the flow data.
The CPR is estimating the size of a 50km square oil field from the results from one well - this is clearly a near impossible task and has to be approached conservatively.
What happens now?

The results of the Rachel well (7.5% RKH) are due at the end of October.
A seismic testing ship will arrive this December - to be joined by a second ship in early 2011.
Seismic testing will take 3 months with a further 2-3 months of interpretation.
The rig for the appraisal well will arrive at the earliest at the end of January 2011.
Drilling could commence in February 2011
Valuation

On the basis of 170m barrels we value Rockhopper at 545p
This consists of 526p for Sealion Plus 19p of cash
This give 40%+ upside from 380p!
This assumes nothing from Rachel
This assumes no more positive data from the 3+ appraisal wells on Sealion
This assumes nothing from the 5 other prospects RKH has in the region.
Today there has been some disappointing news for Rockhopper - the price is now reflecting ONLY disappointing news - the weight of probabilities is tipping in our favour!