http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Well, the deposit for Sea Lion was around 16 million and so was the testing deposit - so with them returned thats around 32 million back into the bank account.

We now know that well drilling cost for 2011 is expected to be 14 million per well, so applying this to Rachel 1 the well cost for RKH @15% was 2.1m pounds.

Now that RKH have paid 15% of two wells (Liz and Rachel) they now go down to 7.5% cost.

So Rachel sidetrack will cost RKH 1.05 million pounds.

Still leaves them plenty of money to pay for the seismic and generally go about their business for another couple of months.

Therefore fund raising, whilst it is there, is not an emergency requirement, and you never know, that strange company called DES might strike luck third time around and then everything changes.... but we should not talk about them and "that" sidetrack.

From CANA

On the basis of 170m barrels we value Rockhopper at 545p
This consists of 526p for Sealion Plus 19p of cash


So 192 million shares times 19p = 36.4m pounds cash.


So I reckon my figures above are pretty good, and fund raising will not be yet, maybe mid to late November once the dust has settled.

Just looking for my shorting hat, Hil . . .

.

mnamreh

re - critical
I am as much as I can

re -SEA

Maybe you do not know, so I will .........
My calls for "UPS" ( a weekly thread ) are for that for a week or short term
The person in question is taking about 2nd of August on the 28th and 29th September ( but nothing about SEA and me the same but about STALKING).

I looked a my last trade on SEA buy at 23.50p on 15 September T+15 to pay 6 October, close on 17 September at 25p.

Noticed a question from you on the SEA thread, but I did not repply, you should know why, I do not hold the shares so not visiting the thread

edit: Maybe you should do the research before, instead of reading others comment and take it as true, I am a trader this days not any longer a long term holder, the economy is not just right for that

mnamreh, you forgot 'innit' at the end. ;o)

Just noticed that Oriel have confirmed the suspicions, that the DES sidetrack is 1 of the remaining 3 wells.

Leaves them only Jacinta and Elaine once this sidetrack is finished.

For sure Jacinta is next but I wonder, will they let RKH have the rig and drill a Sea Lion appraisal starting in early Jan...... very possible.

For RKH it means they pay 7.5% of the Rachel sidetrack and then 7.5% of the Elaine well costs (as they have now completed the payment of 15% of two wells (Liz and Rachel-1)


Oriel note:

Desire announced this morning that the Rachel exploration well was unsuccessful and whilst the well encountered a thick sandstone, no hydrocarbons were encountered.

The well will now be side-tracked into deeper targets which is expected to take 20 days to complete. These targets look higher risk given the sands are likely to be worse quality and thinner in the deeper part of the basin. However these deeper sands should be better located relative to the source rock.
Desire is expected to be funded to complete a further 3 wells (including the sidetrack) which was expected to include Dawn/Jacinta and Elaine, which we estimate are worth 117p/sh on a risked basis. However all these prospects look high risk following the failure of Rachel and our recommendation is under review.

Whilst this result is also bad news for Rockhopper, which held a 7.5% interest in Rachel(which could have been worth 60p/sh), Rockhopper's current share price looks more than underpinned by our view of the value Sea Lion discovery. However Rockhopper 's shares are likely to remain subdued until the funding issue is resolved."

.

Might be appropriate in a few months time as people look back.



;)

Around about stage 11 now, so many people saying they have sold and/or shorted.

Nah, we're only at stage 5 at the moment!

Must be 11, everyone says they have sold and shorted........thats an 11.

It's 290p... where's Fibbonacci?

Must be 11, everyone says they have sold and shorted........thats an 11.

No. You're still holding. That makes it a 5!

It will be cheaper than 290p next week

hlyeo98

re - where's Fibbonacci?

You are being silly now, Fibonacci was exausted yesterday at 78.6% 322p as a last bounce from, today's DES bad news on the 7.5% stake being O so far for RKH is a completly new teritory to look for.

So the next figure to look for is a double bottom at 270p as the new price that could bounce from.

Fibbonacci?

I though he was one of the miners brought out ..

Auction....................

Someone buying 50K at 285p, when the offer was 280p has cause the order book to do an AUCTION job and bounce from earlier lows

Sue "hilary" could not do a better "B job"

The risk that has been added to RKH is if they drill between Rachel and Sealion and come up with nothing...an appraisal there will be high risk.....