scotinvestor
- 25 Jul 2008 14:54
- 35 of 40
surprised that sp has not collapsed given that dudly has fled cuntry ad is in hiding....and bp staf have left russia
Guscavalier
- 05 Sep 2008 10:44
- 36 of 40
MOSCOW , Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Russia central bank stepped into the market and sold up to $4 billion on Thursday to brake the rouble's fall, while shares went into free-fall despite a much awaited shareholder peace deal on oil company TNK-BP.
The rouble fell as low as 30.41, its lowest since the current composition of the basket was set at 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars in February 2007.
Russia's benchmark share index closed 3.94 percent lower at 1,526.57 < .IRTS>, less than a point above the intraday low that marked the index's weakest level this year. The RTS has not seen levels this low since October 2006.
Falling Western markets and fears that capital outflows could accelerate outweighed a long-awaited end to a conflict between BP and its local partners, which had played out in the international media and poisoned sentiment.
'It is easier to undermine investor trust than it is to revive it,' Da Vinci Capital Management Head of Research Alexander Orlov said.
The rouble's move took its combined losses for the last two days to around 60 kopecks or 2 percent.
That appeared to galvanise the central bank into its first major intervention since it sold an estimated $12-$13 billion in two days during the height of Russia's military conflict with Georgia in early August.
'The move from a fixed-currency regime to a more flexible one is part of the central bank's long-term strategy,' said Vladimir Osakovsky, a Moscow-based analyst at UniCredit.
'But we have growing political risks in Russia which have caused capital outflows. Due to this, the volatility turned out to be much greater and the central bank is playing the role of a stabiliser of extremes.'
CONFLICTS, OIL
The rouble closed around 30.39 versus the basket.
'It seems that the central bank's offer is located around 30.40-30.41 roubles to the basket,' said a dealer at a major foreign bank in Moscow.
Russian asset prices have been slashed by the outflow of foreign capital, with foreign investors spooked by the TNK-BP conflict, an unexpected government attack on Mechel, and the military conflict with Georgia and the subsequent souring of relations with the West.
A fall in oil prices from their July peak also weighed heavy. Oil and gas shares account for more than half of the RTS index.
Da Vinci's Orlov said the stock market was rife with rumours that investment committees had decided to pull more money out of Russia in anticipation of redemptions, and would not reverse their position until the scale of further outflows became clear.
Analysts at BNP Paribas said Thursday's data on gold and forex reserves [ID:nMOS005307] indicated a further $2 billion in capital had left Russia last week, adding to outflows of over $20 billion since the start of the conflict with Georgia.
Allowing greater rouble volatility is a step towards the central bank's medium-term aim of moving to an inflation-targeting regime from one focused on the exchange rate. But it is also reluctant to allow extreme moves, and has the power to stop them, as seen on Thursday.
'Most likely when people saw that the central bank is defending the rouble at a certain level, the potential for further appreciation (of the basket) disappeared,' said Osakovsky at UniCredit.
'It's impossible to play against the central bank, taking into account that it has over half a trillion dollars of reserves.'
(Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh, Toni Vorobyova and Melissa Akin; Editing by Victoria Main, Swaha Pattanaik) Keywords: RUSSIA MARKETS/
Gus comment:- pressure on the rouble may be just what the doctor ordered and may have been helpful to BP in negotiations imho. Still lets hope things turn out ok.
dadro
- 03 Feb 2010 09:43
- 38 of 40
Found yesterday here:
www.uk-analyst.com
Although yesterday witnessed an overshoot below the floor of a rising trend channel in place since September on the daily chart of BP, the accompanying key reversal to the upside did suggest that in the normal course of events we have seen the floor on the recent retracement of the shares. The fact that there has been a gap down for the stock today reverses the technicals at least in terms of saying that while below the top of the gap down at 581p on an end of day close stop loss basis the risk is for a test of support as low as November's 562p intraday low. But only sustained price action under the 4 month support implies a major top is in place at BP.
required field
- 30 Apr 2010 08:47
- 39 of 40
BP are in a right pickle....the cost will be staggering !.....what a mess....
required field
- 30 Apr 2010 20:45
- 40 of 40
Leed petroleum who drill in that part of the world have slumped....."the pelican brief" ?.....