barkerman - 4 Nov'07 - 13:16 - 12540 of 12541


Good post from the other side.



Message >

Moneyintransit
Gold Contributor



Joined: 02-Nov-04
Location: Ireland
Posts: 345 Posted: 03-Nov-07 at 18:59 | IP Logged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hi All,

This is by far the most important and positive development since our AGM in August !!

From AGM we knew the Government could and would force the HCL through in September. It now seems they have not yet done so in order to wait for the right moment, the right atmosphere. The Prime Minister himself says the atmosphere is now right to have the HCL ratified, and he says it to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, so no mistake about it, it's pretty official.

It is probably no coincidence that during this week there was also a meeting with the International Monetary Fund, who will write off Iraq's debt against passing of the HCL ??

And to add to that momentum, there were high level talks recently between Petrel and Iraq, as well as between Petrel and ITOCHU !

I was aiming for end of October, which did not materialise, so I am a bit hesitant to put another time-line to this development. HOWEVER, one would expect that the Prime Minister now will have to act on his statement to Condoleezza Rice and put the draft law before parliament in near future. Could all of this be completed in say 1 month ??

Champagne advice : BUY and keep on stand-by !!





Edited by Moneyintransit on 04-Nov-07 at 01:20
Back to Top

martinmule
Contributing Member



Joined: 30-Dec-04
Posts: 41 Posted: 03-Nov-07 at 20:17 | IP Logged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


If the draft law is put before parliament - what value the share price?



Must be more than 2.50 - just reward for those who have endured the long wait.



ATB

MM

Back to Top

Scoby
Gold Contributor



Joined: 08-Dec-04
Location: Ireland
Posts: 327 Posted: 03-Nov-07 at 23:03 | IP Logged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Steady as she goes folks, this might just be it.

Either way, a huge 'hats off' to the indefatigable Jecs who seems to pull rabbit after (white) rabbit from the mangled translations of Google.

Thanks Jecs

Scoby

Back to Top

"ELEPHANTS"

West Qurna, mapped by Soviet geologists in the 1980s but mostly untapped, is one of a dozen or so supergiant oil fields in the world. They are known in the industry as elephants, fields so large they can tip the fortunes of companies or countries.

cojones - 4 Nov'07 - 14:18 - 12541


Hi all,
Great news from Jecs bodes well for the days that lay ahead. Positive news regarding passing of the HCL would see a breakout from the resistance the price is facing at the moment at 142p and re-test 151p that although is a psychological major key level, after 2 months of consolidating i would see this price being broken. I remember one of Fingers's favourite formations which he calls a 'Mountain top Plateau' can similarly be seen on the chart.

Criteria for the plateau formation from fingers xxd site-
-After retracement with profit taking, the price consolidates for a few weeks, eventually settling at the initial peak, to form the 'flat plateau' (light blue).
-a 'close' above that 'plateau' will provide a clear signal that the price is about to make it's move.
Once the breakout has been achieved and held, it is unlikely to fall back through and drop away again.

lex1000 - 4 Nov'07 - 14:53 - 12542


Cojones,news Jecs has posted over the week-end sits perfectly with charting analysis.Anyone wanting to buy or top up, now is the perfect time.All of us can look forward to more than 250p.

Reminder back of "fag packet" calculations assuming $55 barrel which is on low side compared to $90...

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=8899170&from=77730
kdickson - 15 May'07 - 11:45 - 77730 of 98877

All this talk of 5 per share makes me think it's time for a 'fag packet' calculation to keep us focussed on the massive potential of PET.

Does anyone remember an ADVFN poster named edgein who was an O&G guru who used to post on the EME/VOG threads. The following part post were his thoughts on one method he used to value oil in the ground:-

The other method I use which you might prefer and I think is less complicated but just a rough guide:
Use the current oil price to work out the current Net Present Value of the oil reserves of a co. Take 10% of that value as the value of oil in the ground and that gives a present value based on the current market oil. A simplier and much quicker system to use. I personally rarely use PE to calculate the value of an oil stock My system tends to be highly conservative, but then again I'm rarely disappointed and regularly in profit.

Im no expert on valuing oil companies but, based on the above, does anyone majorly disagree with the sort of share price achievable in my calcualtions below?

Petrels presentation said Block 6 has 3 to 5 billion barrel potential.

Lets say 4 billion barrels at $55 = $2,200 billion
Divide by 2 to get into pounds = 1,100 billion
Take 10% as value of oil in ground = 110 billion
Take 20% as PSA share = 2,200 million
Split 3 ways (Itochu/Makman/PET) = 740 million each (approx)
Divide by 74 million shares = 10 /share (74m mentioned in presentation)

(Mmmm, now whos always predicted 10 share price!?)

i.e. for every 1 billion barrels, value to PETs share price for oil in the ground is 2.50

Now, toting up PETs potential contracts:-
Halfaya 10 billion barrels
S&L (deeper levels) 2 bbls (say)
Merjan 0.75 bbls
Block 6 4 bbls
TOTAL = 16.75 billion barrels at 2.50 per bbls = oil in ground price of 40 + (excludes East Safawi as well!).

Istanbul conference recommendations dominate Baghdad press

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baghdad, 04 November 2007 (Voices of Iraq)
Iraqi newspapers on Sunday focused on the recommendations from the Istanbul-based conference for Iraq's neighboring countries which closed yesterday and sideline meetings between the participants.

In its coverage of the conference, the independent daily al-Mada newspaper published a main report in which it said, "The Istanbul conference concluded with calls for government support, a firmer grip on joint border security and a pledge by Baghdad to take prompt measures against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and combat terrorism. The conference's final statement
stressed that Iraqi land will not be used as a base to launch terrorist attacks against neighboring countries."

On the sidelines of the conference, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki explained to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that conditions are now more favorable for the ratification of several draft laws, forwarded by the Iraqi government to the parliament, including the draft laws on oil and gas, and accountability and justice, the newspaper said.

The government-funded al-Sabah newspaper published a main headline that read, 'Istanbul conference: Behind closed doors meetings, encouraging final statement.' According to the newspaper, sideline meetings between heads of the delegations overshadowed the conference. "During his meeting with U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, al-Maliki stressed the Iraqi armed forces' increased abilities and their readiness to take over security duties in Iraqi provinces and highlighted a major leap in economic growth and a fall in inflation and unemployment rates," the newspaper wrote
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during an inaugural speech in the conference, urged neighboring countries to take firm steps against "groups practicing terrorism in Iraq" in reference to the PKK, considered by Turkey as "terrorist" organization.

Erdogan revealed his country's readiness to realize security and stability and bolster national reconciliation in Iraq. "We have to continue re-building Iraq," Erdogan said in his speech with the Iraqi premier sitting next to him.

Baghdad newspaper, issued by former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's al-Wifaq Movement, published the following main headlines: 'Allawi: Iraqis want to remain united,' 'Speaker: Vote on ministers of agriculture, health is void' and 'Government did not clamp down on oil smugglers.'

Al-Bayyina al-Jadida, another independent daily, published an article entitled, 'A certain victory,' by Ghayath Abdul Hamid in which he voiced his optimism about the ability of Iraqi security forces to achieve sweeping victory over al-Qaeda organization and stressed intelligence reports as a main weapon in the fight against al-Qqeda.


http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php/article/23608

On the move.
2517

2517GEORGE,posted as much information for research.Investors on Advfn piling in buying & topping up this morning.Very slow on the uptake here on MoneyAM.Stand to be corrected if peeps have bought thisAM. I have a feeling Zak Mir's 190p will be beaten.aimvho.


lex1000 - 03 Nov 2007 16:39 - 352 of 363
Bullish noises coming out of Iraq.News is gem of a find.HCL & contractS potential is huge.PET has first advantage as do investors who get in early.Article below in Iraq News and not known wider UK or worldwide press.Penny dropped? Pennies to pounds potential! lol

Watch out buying UK & GSE coming days & weeks.Very close...AIVHO.DYOR.


jecs - 3 Nov\\\'07 - 14:40 - 12477

*********************************************************************************************

Prime Minister Nuri told Al-Maliki and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Saturday, in Istanbul, the atmosphere is now ready for ratification by the Iraqi Parliament on a number of draft laws approved by the government, including a bill of oil, gas and Bill accountability and justice.

*********************************************************************************************

GSE: Bid 150.34p v Offer 157.34p

Breakout confirmed.

Resistance @ 150p but for how long!

Anyone who joined me 60.5p-70p more than doubled up.This is only the beginning.Hold 2-5 years.aimvho.

Fabulous investment even though I say so myself.lol

lex1000---------Yes it is paying off now, but for the many longer term holders amongst us it's been more of a rollercoaster ride, even though we may have bought @ a much lower price than yourself.
I firmly believe that this share has the capacity to register meaningful profits for it's investors. Good luck all
2517

2517GEORGE, everything coming together in 2007.Surprised very little interest on MoneyAM in this once in a lifetime investment.

Waiting for doubters Cynic,Holden & Halifax to turn up. Their loss.

dont worry about cynic............he is always found on dud shares.
I admit to having a couple of sh?t shares and guess who is on it every day........yip, u guessed it....cynic

he doesnt even type info either, just drivel and his stupid opinion.
he also talks about shares as if he's got them and if they go tits up, he says he doesnt have them and sometimes then slags them.

i've no time for people slagging off shares unless they invest or short them.
i cant see the purpose of typing on this unless u r playing the game.

anyway i'm playing petrel's game.

I bought last year but sold for a small loss---too impatient! Back in now and turned blue today--so looking forward to the exciting times ahead.

si--------I reckon everybody including the so called experts have their share of dud co's, I know I have, but I've always believed that as long as I have more winners than losers then I should be making money.

moneyplus-------good luck this time.
2517

guys....I think cynic thrives on looking at the downside of everything posted and on winding us all up
Not defending him but I really dont think he expects us to take him too seriously...and if we do, then we get naffed off and he has achieved his aim
Why else would he call himself cynic.....he aint gonna look on the positive side with a name like that

lex1000 - 23 Aug 2007 13:26 - 121
cynic,in reply to your post 117.

Told you this stock comes with a "WEALTH WARNING". Don't buy any PET,you mustn't cynic, as PET could seriously increase your wealth.

Hopefully others bought like I did 60p-70p.

Too cynical for your own good.LOL

regards

lex ;o)

piston broke-----there is a lot of truth in what you say imo, but cynic also brings a sense of reality and not getting carried away with the euphoria of it all. Long may he keep posting.
2517