http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

DES was the one to buy after the drop not this.

DES is not the one to buy.

DES is now very very high risk. With Rachel not only failing but also failing to find any oil, it makes everything "make or break" on the sidetrack.

The sidetrack is going down to sands near to the anticipated "mature source", and if there is no oil on the sidetrack it will have massive implications for DES and RKH.

For DES it will mean that the oil is likely all up north.

For RKH, they have the licenses all north and will be swimming in the stuff, more so than anticipated now.

DES could move up quite a bit on a oil strike, it will fall a massive amount on failure, probably down to 30p levels, even down to 25p perhaps.

RKH win either way, no oil is good, or oil is good as they have 7.5% and also DES finding oil as well will boost sentiment.

Presumably the sp will briefly be adjusted down to the placing price. I wonder if it's worth putting a 'Limit Buy' on the system and see if it triggers? Can't imagine it will stay low for any length of time. At what price though???

So DES is not the one to buy from 69p to 96p.....but RKH is from 290p to 340p.....more upside from DES....it is risky, but a drop to 30p is not on the cards because 2 wells coming up back to back whist RKH exploration is put on hold......a drop yes but not to 30p...

If this Rachel sidetrack fails, you watch the price collapse. It has massive implications if the mature source rock ? is barren.

Do you think that Rockhopper will drop as well ?.....I will back in for the appraisal wells next year...sure.....

markymar

re - 2,300 hits on this thread today......wow...10 + posters...

you can not have it both ways, in one way you were complaning about my post, and on the other ...... very glad you hit 2300 hits.

I can asure you that today you will not get close to yesterday's hits.

My strategy did work wonders even if the "mangement" did its appearance today saying the normal thing "take it easy guys"

                       

A lot of silent readers master.....what your hit rate on the ups these days as i have nothing to do with ADVFN.

I was told last night the placing had been oversubscribed but still thought there would be a over hand due to people taking a quick profit so good to see RKH up, My order still not been filled but happy with what I have.

Hilary are you still running your short or closed out of it?

required field

re - So DES is not the one to buy from 69p to 96p.....but RKH is from 290p to 340p

Yes some people know too much it seems, but the worse of it that they are trying to make us believe it.

re -Trying, trying ( proselenes )

( he/she ) did try when the share price was having the normal retracement ( guys do not sell, there is so much oil on the well, I top up and that was several times) I myself was advising to wait till the proper retracement was completed by the different % that usually bounce back from.

And above with the sell DES buy RKH well ( he/she ) did, but we can see now that the strategy once again is not working, I would say out of pocket on a large way.

Poor ....Proselenes, you certainly have not --Papel --- inspiration.

markymar

re - what your hit rate on the "UPS" these days as i have nothing to do with ADVFN.

Pretty strong at the moment, it has its very good days Sunday and Monday ( selection of shares for the week ) with around 18 visitors for each post, falling to 15 on Thusday and at the end is an overage of 12 to 13

As you can see also plenty of luckers. Soon is going to be 10 years old UPS with weekly opening and daily editing of the table, so hard work indeed and tired also.

btw - I dedicated more time on your thread yesterday than my "UPS" so we did see the results at the end.

Joke - I do not allow disrupted behavour on my thread.

Poor performance today is all on the statistics - order book - negative at the moment

spread 335 / 336p

390K v 484

Yes is down and nobody wants to say it I wonder.

Most likely investors have put the money at XEL, I hold there, but not at MXP doing extra well also

Cynic

Not long to wait now to buy at 300p

maybe - serves me right for sticking my neck out if true!

Better then sticking it in the sand ........... lol

In response to some of the moans over such a big placing on some boards.............

Yes, there are always short term holders who will buy placing stock and then sell it straight for a profit. Yes there will always be some people who take placing stock, sell their original holding straight away above the placing price and then sit and wait for the placing stock to be issued to take them back to their holdings level before. Some will also borrow stock and sell it, and then their short position is cleared back to neutral when the placing stock comes through. Thats just the way the market works and its nothing special.

Its easy money and people love easy money, but as soon as those people stop selling (and there is no benefit of selling below say 317p) then the price can move back to higher levels, hopefully the trigger for that will be Rachel sidetrack success, or if that fails one assumes that not too long after we will get news on the "new highly attractive prospects" they have now found following data crunching, what will become the potential exploration targets in 2011/2012 and how many potential billions of barrels recoverable are in them.

Some people will always moan, a lot of people moaning now or predicting the price will collapse down are people who simply missed the boat and want in at 315p levels, people who are out now waiting for their 30 day Capital Gains Tax waiting period to be over so they can buy again and want the price as low as possible when they can buy back etc....

There is a point to be made really.

206m at 315p = 65.6m shares = Dilution 34%
206m at 400p = 51.5m shares = Dilution 27%

We have an additional 7% dilution for a 315p placing price, however I am sure they would not have been able to raise 206m at 400p.

The name of the game here is survival and what RKH have done, even if some do not like it, is short term pain for long term gain.

What people are failing to appreciate is that this time next year (Oct 2011) they should have :

a/ An appraised Sea Lion with recoverable barrels of circa 350m to 500m P50.

b/ An exploration well drilled and more oil found, confirming the RKH licenses are very viable.

c/ 150m still in the bank.

d/ Lots of 3D done in the north and south of the North Falklands, with many additional new prospects added and older ones derisked, adding more billions of barrels potential upside.


Therefore this time next year, there is no desperate need to fund raise, there is no need to farm out and the future of RKH is in the hands of RKH. This makes any fund raising to be on the terms of RKH (which will be IMO a Rights Issue at that time) and it makes any farm out more of a "farm in" in that the other company has to make attractive terms to RKH and not RKH has to sell out cheap to cut costs and get money.

RKH enter this time next year with the funds to drill all 5 option drills for exploration and still be left with around 50m cash in the bank this time 2012 but with possibly more than a billion additional recoverable barrels proven up by exploration.

The future of the company is secure as is the fact that next time the boot is now firmly on the other foot. RKH can keep drilling to Autumn 2012 even if credit markets are terrible in 2011 and everyone struggles to raise cash.

Short term pain, yes you can moan about it, but think outside the box and RKH is strong now and all being well will never be weak again. That is what I am invested in now, minimal downside risk and yet massive amounts of upside.

All fully paid for stock, no spreads and no margin, its an investment now, not a trading stock. Think Tullow because this time next year RKH could have a 2C figure far far higher than Tullow has (as of their 2009 report), and have a 2P figure that is higher than Tullow have (as of their 2009 report), and that is no joke.


Enjoy the ride.

Starting slowlyy higher, but now is getting into the mood and from 2p now is 10p UP

Better than DES for a change

aldo - any luck buying at 300?

No cynic.

I see that TFC is back , I find it strange that he as never posted a view on RKH , thought he would be trading it .

perhaps he's consulting his onions.,.