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Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL) (FOGL)     

Proselenes - 13 Aug 2011 04:53

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greekman - 24 Apr 2012 06:51 - 391 of 2393

Proselenes,

I for one don't care a jot if your posts are ramping or not (who does not put a slightly bias slant on a share they are invested in), but most of your posts are very interesting an informative.
Keep them coming.

regards Greek

Proselenes - 24 Apr 2012 06:59 - 392 of 2393

Greek, do not worry, the abuse, insults and pathetic childish remarks some people make are water off of a ducks back.

They come from people who are jealous, its the only reason they do it, and as such I forgive them for their jealousness and ignore them.

Never going to stop be posting on any stock with any info :)

gibby - 24 Apr 2012 09:02 - 393 of 2393

interesting day here so far - better fogl than bor for now maybe

Proselenes - 24 Apr 2012 10:41 - 394 of 2393

I put this on the BOR thread - info for here.

As some people seem to struggle to understand what gas condensate is, I have put the following together quickly, apologies for errors in advance - this is just a simple way of giving an idea of what "gas condensate" is.


The most interesting question is what is the bngl/mmscf for the gas condensate ?

The company has said, in effect, this is not a "wet gas" find, they have said this is a "gas condensate" discovery.


"Wet gas" is as it says, its gas with fluids in it. Wet gas can be anything from tea cup of Natural Gas Liquids per MMSCF to around 10 barrels of NGL/MMSCF.

BNGL/MMSCF is Barrels of Natural Gas Liquids / Million SCF of gas.


Now, gas condensate discoveries, as opposed to wet gas discoveries, tend to have a value for bngl/mmscf from 10 barrels of NGL/MMSCF up to around 500 barrels of NGL per MMSCF at which point above 500 its into the realms of "volatile oil" before becoming "black liquid oil" at around 1000 BNGL/MMSCF equivalent values.

So

Up to 10 BNGL/MMSCF is "wet gas"
>10 BNGL/MMSCF up to 500 BNGL/MMSCF is "gas condensate".
>500 BGNL/MMSCF up to 1000 BNGL/MMSCF is "volatile oil".
>1000 BNGL/MMSCF equivalent is liquid black oil


To put that into perspective - if lets say the Darwin East + Darwin West structure is joined and has 5 Tcf of gas equivalent value and that "Gas Condensate" has a BNGL/MMSCF value of 100.

You would get :

5,000,000 MMSCF x 100 BNGL = 500 million barrels of condensate.

If its 2 Tcf and 200 BNGL = 400 million barrels of condensate.

If its 2 Tcf and 20 BNGL = 40 million barrels of condensate.


This is why at the moment its very hard to value this "gas condensate" discovery, but its certainly not a "wet gas" discovery as per RNS is clear, this is into the realms of gas condensate.

We await the fluid samples and therefore a value for the BNGL/MMSCF of the fluid recovered from Darwin.

If they recovered fluid from the reservoir it is possible this is actually in the borderline between gas condensate and volatile oil - if the BNGL/MMSCF were to be 500 then it would be fluid like, on the borderline state between condensate and volatile oil.

Proselenes - 24 Apr 2012 11:50 - 395 of 2393

Stebbing is green area so more likely oil, as are Loligo and Scotia for FOGL - BUT the area where Darwin was drilled is distinctly in the small red area there - gas.

captureot.gifcapture1r.gif


As you can see Darwin is prime for gas (red area). Stebbing is more likely to be oil (green area)

Loligo and Scotia targets for FOGL are in the oil window (green) - much more likely to be oil

targets.png

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Proselenes - 24 Apr 2012 12:00 - 396 of 2393

Here is all the explo blocks.

capture3.gif

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required field - 24 Apr 2012 16:30 - 397 of 2393

Well, this is my main stock now.....retained some BOR....drop becoming ridiculous for that share now....3 wells it looks like for FOGL......that'll keep them busy till october by the look of things......sp looking far too low for such potential.....

required field - 24 Apr 2012 17:02 - 398 of 2393

Just printed out the whole 2012 pdf presentation.....lovely evening read....I'm going to have to be careful not to fall in love with this share.....

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 03:53 - 399 of 2393

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/FoxDavies_Daily_Monitor_Borders_and_Southern_Falkland_Oil_and_Gas_and_Aurelian_Oil_Gas/73e9a27378df.aspx



FoxDavies Daily Monitor - Borders and Southern, Falkland Oil and Gas and Aurelian Oil & Gas

..........................

Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL LN, 91.25p, 2.7%) - Concept Proven:

Today's BOR LN results will boost south Falkland's players, such as FOGL as it diminishes one of the key risks associated with the SFB- that it is a viable hydrocarbon basin with mature source rock. With this news, we are raising our target price from 250p to 275p and reiterating our BUY recommendation.

Falklands - That Thick Silver Lining Still has a Cloud…: Today's news that there is a viable hydrocarbon province in the shape of the SFB benefits everybody, not just the players in that basin, but those in the North Falkland's Basin like Desire, Rockhopper and Argos. With the prospects of the SFB being a viable commercial discovery, there will soon be a claim to have critical mass, and the risks associated with the development of the regional as a whole will lift all the players in the region.

It will also raise the tempo in the fight for the Falklands between Argentina and the UK, which given the recent nationalisation of YPF was a shameless populist driven event, there will be little holding the government back from whipping up another fervour over the Falklands.

But here is the rub. YPF's nationalisation (the "Nationalisation") actually helps the Falklands. Prior to the Nationalisation, Argentina had been indulged in its claims for the Falklands by its LatAm peers, even in the wake of PetroBras' licence revocation, despite what we have been led to believe was its compliance with the terms of the licence. However, the Nationalisation has attracted international condemnation, such that Argentina's next "cab of the rank," i.e. the Falklands, shall be used to make an example of it, which is good for the Falklands.

required field - 25 Apr 2012 08:29 - 400 of 2393

Argentina won't get any help from Spain....I'm sure as we progress that the sp for FOGL will climb...so many very large prospects and 3 wells.....4 if you count Stebbing...

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 08:35 - 401 of 2393

The biggest target identified so far is not being drilled this year.

This is Diomedia, which is P50 recoverable barrels of 5.3 billion. This target will be good if Scotia well has oil and should be part of late 2013 exploration drilling, after they do some 3D.

required field - 25 Apr 2012 08:36 - 402 of 2393

Crumbs......not aware of that target....nice rise sp wise this morning....

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 08:53 - 403 of 2393

The price is rising, it means all the muppets will not be posting on the thread today then :) LOL

Balerboy - 25 Apr 2012 09:02 - 404 of 2393

Which one are you.......Groucher??

cynic - 25 Apr 2012 09:07 - 405 of 2393

fogl has long been a better bet than bor, for very obvious reasons

required field - 25 Apr 2012 09:08 - 406 of 2393

That's the one to be in....and if you cover most of the oil sector....it is the one to be in...

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 09:16 - 407 of 2393

cynic, no need to tell me, I now hold 326K paid for shares, and very relaxed.

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 09:50 - 408 of 2393

Loligo is not the biggest prospect either.

FOGL has over 100 mapped prospects so far, and many more could be found when 3D seismic is done next year.

But for now Diomedia is the biggest prospect with potentially 5.3 billion barrels of oil recoverable P50.

Makes Loligo look small with just 4.7 billion recoverable barrels P50.

But the CSEM on Diomedia was unreliable due to depth, so they decided to run with Loligo as the big play for first drilling.

If Scotia, the 2nd well, comes in good then it will derisk Diomedia and put in in line for a late 2013 drill :)

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 09:54 - 409 of 2393

I think the hold up with the farm in for FOGL is that its Cairn and Anadarko who are interested.

However, they also are looking at RKH, which means the FOGL farm in will be delayed until they decide to go ahead with RKH or not.

Should they decide to go with just FOGL and not RKH or with both - will be the time the farm in is announced on FOGL.

Proselenes - 25 Apr 2012 11:50 - 410 of 2393

When the farm out announcement was made, on the 20th March, the FOGL share price was 60p.

Owing to BOR's success in proving a working hydrocarbon system there has been a greater than 50% rise in FOGL's share price.

Therefore the option should kick in that the farm in partner now has to pay an additional 10 million dollars for their 25% share of the Southern licenses.


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201203200700246704Z


This now makes the farm out deal worth potentially 105 million US$ for FOGL in return for farming out 25% of the Eastern and Southern licenses.

Enough cash then to take the option well and turn this into a 3 drill campaign for FOGL - probably drilling a Loligo appraisal well should Loligo be good, or testing Nimrod imo.

Could be Loligo then Scotia then Loligo appraisal or Loligo then Scotia then Scotia appraisal or Loligo then Scotia then Nimrod.
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