.

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/FoxDavies_Daily_Monitor_Borders_and_Southern_Falkland_Oil_and_Gas_and_Aurelian_Oil_Gas/73e9a27378df.aspx



FoxDavies Daily Monitor - Borders and Southern, Falkland Oil and Gas and Aurelian Oil & Gas

..........................

Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL LN, 91.25p, 2.7%) - Concept Proven:

Today's BOR LN results will boost south Falkland's players, such as FOGL as it diminishes one of the key risks associated with the SFB- that it is a viable hydrocarbon basin with mature source rock. With this news, we are raising our target price from 250p to 275p and reiterating our BUY recommendation.

Falklands - That Thick Silver Lining Still has a Cloud…: Today's news that there is a viable hydrocarbon province in the shape of the SFB benefits everybody, not just the players in that basin, but those in the North Falkland's Basin like Desire, Rockhopper and Argos. With the prospects of the SFB being a viable commercial discovery, there will soon be a claim to have critical mass, and the risks associated with the development of the regional as a whole will lift all the players in the region.

It will also raise the tempo in the fight for the Falklands between Argentina and the UK, which given the recent nationalisation of YPF was a shameless populist driven event, there will be little holding the government back from whipping up another fervour over the Falklands.

But here is the rub. YPF's nationalisation (the "Nationalisation") actually helps the Falklands. Prior to the Nationalisation, Argentina had been indulged in its claims for the Falklands by its LatAm peers, even in the wake of PetroBras' licence revocation, despite what we have been led to believe was its compliance with the terms of the licence. However, the Nationalisation has attracted international condemnation, such that Argentina's next "cab of the rank," i.e. the Falklands, shall be used to make an example of it, which is good for the Falklands.

Argentina won't get any help from Spain....I'm sure as we progress that the sp for FOGL will climb...so many very large prospects and 3 wells.....4 if you count Stebbing...

The biggest target identified so far is not being drilled this year.

This is Diomedia, which is P50 recoverable barrels of 5.3 billion. This target will be good if Scotia well has oil and should be part of late 2013 exploration drilling, after they do some 3D.

Crumbs......not aware of that target....nice rise sp wise this morning....

The price is rising, it means all the muppets will not be posting on the thread today then :) LOL

Which one are you.......Groucher??

fogl has long been a better bet than bor, for very obvious reasons

That's the one to be in....and if you cover most of the oil sector....it is the one to be in...

cynic, no need to tell me, I now hold 326K paid for shares, and very relaxed.

Loligo is not the biggest prospect either.

FOGL has over 100 mapped prospects so far, and many more could be found when 3D seismic is done next year.

But for now Diomedia is the biggest prospect with potentially 5.3 billion barrels of oil recoverable P50.

Makes Loligo look small with just 4.7 billion recoverable barrels P50.

But the CSEM on Diomedia was unreliable due to depth, so they decided to run with Loligo as the big play for first drilling.

If Scotia, the 2nd well, comes in good then it will derisk Diomedia and put in in line for a late 2013 drill :)

I think the hold up with the farm in for FOGL is that its Cairn and Anadarko who are interested.

However, they also are looking at RKH, which means the FOGL farm in will be delayed until they decide to go ahead with RKH or not.

Should they decide to go with just FOGL and not RKH or with both - will be the time the farm in is announced on FOGL.

When the farm out announcement was made, on the 20th March, the FOGL share price was 60p.

Owing to BOR's success in proving a working hydrocarbon system there has been a greater than 50% rise in FOGL's share price.

Therefore the option should kick in that the farm in partner now has to pay an additional 10 million dollars for their 25% share of the Southern licenses.


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201203200700246704Z


This now makes the farm out deal worth potentially 105 million US$ for FOGL in return for farming out 25% of the Eastern and Southern licenses.

Enough cash then to take the option well and turn this into a 3 drill campaign for FOGL - probably drilling a Loligo appraisal well should Loligo be good, or testing Nimrod imo.

Could be Loligo then Scotia then Loligo appraisal or Loligo then Scotia then Scotia appraisal or Loligo then Scotia then Nimrod.

FKL and FOGL are both rising today - one therefore wonders if farm in news is going to be soon, perhaps BOR proving the working hydrocarbon system will force the hand of someone to move quick before someone else does.

almost every share is up today, especially in the oil sector, so don't read too much into it - XEL is the usual dissenter!

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/04/25/shares/news-and-analysis/more-ups-and-downs-in-the-falklands-0BO47mn8rdI6GH3cpGbElM/article.html



.......IC VIEW:

The initial results from Darwin do at least confirm the presence of hydrocarbon-bearing structures within the South Falklands Basin, which provides a positive beat for UK explorers in the region - including our preferred southern basin play, Falkland Oil & Gas . And, ironically, the recent appropriation of Repsol’s stake in YPF by the Argentine government could perversely make it easier to attract farm-in partners to the South Atlantic, as oil and gas companies - or at least western ones - may now be less bothered about upsetting Buenos Aires on matters of regional sovereignty........

If the farm in partner were Anadarko it could give a bigger uplift, as its a major and also it would bring FOGL to the attention of lots more US investors and funds.

Three names in the frame, CNE, PMO and Anadarko.

signed and sealed has much better cadence

IF.....a big word.wait till they have a partner, its called counting you chickens before they hatch.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/17

..................Falkland Oil and Gas (FOGL), another British oil explorer, said Friday that it was in talks with parties about taking a stake in its interests in the area.

However, Chief Executive Tim Bushell said any company, such as BP or Spain's Repsol, who have Argentine interests, would most likely not be able to partner with it.

Industry sources said the support of South American oil producers such as Brazil and Venezuela for Argentina's claims on the Malvinas Islands, means companies which have interests in those countries could also shy away from Falklands’ players.

FOGL said it was in talks with North American and European independent oil firms, and analysts said companies such as Anadarko (APC.N), which plans to exit its Brazilian operations and has no Argentine interests, could make a bid..............................

So do we speculate the reason for no names and "ongoing corporate events" is thats its Anadarko selling off its Brazilian assets ?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/anadarko-statoil-idUKL4E8E70CG20120307


The jigsaw puzzle is coming together - Anadarko completes sale of Brazilian units to Statoil and then farms into FOGL and RKH......... ;)