http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

i was a pupil of dennis skinner aka the beast of bolsover

Dennis Skinner could be very witty with his one liners , but never contributed anything of substance to the debate.

like the boy said, though value like beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Ha..so they haven't drilled for the P10 confirmation yet then? I guess that's why the sp is so low still!!

First of all, this first well has nothing to do with the present estimate of Sea Lion being 170 million recoverable barrels, as it is being drilled outside the defined Sea Lion area. It also has nothing to do with the potential upgrade to 242 million recoverable barrels, again as it being drilled outside the present Sea Lion defined discovery area.

However, take this in :

......."If successful the northern lobe has the potential to largely de-risk the P10 upside case for Sea Lion (669mmb). In addition the well will target a deeper fan which covers an area of 42sq km which has the potential to be a material target given the P10 estimate for the shallower targets assumes a real extent of 55sq km........


First of all, it is testing the P10 669 million recoverable barrels area, BUT it is also targeting a second fan, of some 45sq km, which if that contains oil too, would suddenly make Sea Lion potentially over 1 billion barrels recoverable... an absolute giant of a find and one which on its own would make the North Falklands commercial as a new producing region.

Pretty exciting giving the share price still is undervaluing the "defined" Sea Lion discovery area, which is nothing to do with the 1st drill, however the potential is there to make the NFB commercial and define a new discovery area of 1 billion barrels recoverable (and all 100% owned).

People can talk down the Falklands as much as they want to, that is their right, however I am playing to make money and RKH could make its present holders very very rich overnight with that 1st drill.

1 billion barrels @ 8.5 US$ a barrel in the ground = 5.5 billion market cap, or an easy 7 times the current share price.

And that is just one "lobe" of the potential Sea Lion extension area, there is still the Southern undefined lobe to test as well.

And that excludes the other potential leads of George, Chatham, Fox, Stephens, Jason etc....

Anyone who think that RKH cannot go up much in 2011 is clearly mad, it has risks yes, but as the present share price ignores a quater of a billion pounds in cash and the most of the current Sea Lion defined 170MMBO the risk is small, and there is magnificent potential upside and RKH is my stock pick for 2011.

i don't know about "nap of 2011", but at the present levels, RKH looks good value, well underpinned with its known discovery

Well, I would say that the order of the drills not only suggests an astute board of directors but there is reason in there, for it seems to me the talk of a farm out to someone like Hess is strengthened by the new knowledge of going for the Billion first, and then appraising the present Sea Lion discovery area.

They could not farm out to Hess IF they honestly thought Sea Lion was potentially a Billion barrels, as Hess would not pay that much with no proof and RKH could not accept a cheap price for farm in.

So it makes sense to see if Sea Lion is a giant, and also appraise the present before a major farm in.

This is why I think the new details on the drilling order confirm, IMO, that farm in talks are ongoing and based on the results of those two wells the price of the farm in will be decided........

as you rightly say, much will depend on the next results ..... how brave one wants to be in the meantime depends on one's pain threshold and/or if one wants to buy some for trading as well as keeping longer term

An extract of Tipping Tom's recent OB presentation.

The outlook for oil, as said by Goldman Sachs and others, well TT is in agreement too. Mid-East problems ? Interesting, certainly I have no exposure to anything in the Middle East, but anyone who has could suffer big time if things heat up, while oilers focussed on other area's might surge, those with their hand in the ME might be going down fast.

As the Chinese say, "May you live in interesting times" - and anyone with lots of exposure to black gold has been and still is having very interesting times !! :)

http://www.mediafire.com/?r6bu3l17crtndul

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and the chinese saying is meant perjoratively - if that is the right word - or as an anglo-saxon acronym GFY

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the previous writer was probably unaware (poorly read) that the saying carried a curse

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They saying, for anyone who understands Chinese, is that only in interesting times do things happen. A life of boring monotony is not the best life.

Similarly the characters for Chaos and Opportunity and virtually the same, which ultimately means that in Chaos there is always Opportunity.

But then, I speak Mandarin and have extensive time in China, people like cynic have probably seem a video and some photo's.

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mnamreh, its ok.

cynic is really not happy I have pointed out with RKH and XEL this year that his "buy and sell and buy and sell and buy and sell" has in fact "lost lots of potential profit" - and my strategy of buying good stocks, at low prices and holding long term - has been proven better.

So as this has happened cynic is being bitter and twisted and making snide comments everywhere. As you will notice, its always cynic being the bitter and twisted poster throwing the first stone each time...... ;)

Never mind....... these things happen........ :)

MN .... a little research indicated that this may not be a chinese proverb at all, but one that has been superimposed upon them ..... by the way, i made (banked!) a lot of money on RKH over the last 12 months and actually still hold some

Dont forget my pint Cynic next time am down your neck of the woods,2011 will be a cracker pardon the pun for RKH.

:-)

indeed marky .... by that time i'ld hope much of the crud and ramping hypotheses will be in the bin where they belong (as with XEL) and it will be much clearer as to what lies ahead in FI in general and RKH more specifically