why?

its iraq we r dealiong with

Bear raid on PET.Buy the dips & add on weakness.Read next post.Copy of e-mail reply from David Horgan,MD.All you need to know.aimvho.

mclellan - 13 Nov'07 - 13:48 - 15263 of 15300


I've just come back but before I left I wrote to David and have received this reply:

David Horgan (dhorgan@CooleyWhiskey.com)
Sent: 13 November 2007 12:10:31
To: Fiona *********@hotmail.com)

Hi Fiona,

Thanks for that! It sounds like the same shorting stories of 2004 & 2005:

We wont get contracts

The Americans / majors will take everything

Dome backed by Anadarko will get Subba & Luhais

Dont be surprised if you soon read that I have been killed again that will be the 4th time so far.

The media, and especially Arabic media are highly unreliable as we have learnt, but no one has shown me any such article.

At this stage our sources should be better than any journalists.

The reality is that no one is aiming for TSAs: we are doing the biggest one already. The majors have no interest in TSAs in Iraq. They want PSAs.

Our track record speaks for itself: it would be very odd if the ministry werent talking to the company running its biggest project!

I suspect that people are understandably frustrated by the delays passing the new law, but remember how long it took to ratify our Subba & Luhais contract and all the shorters and even media stories that we wouldnt get the project.

It is a very dangerous gamble to short Petrel.



We have been through these cycles of greed and fear before: the short-term price is set by the marginal trader. There may also be CFDs and shorts.

It is wiser to hold our counsel and let the results speak.

The combination of security risk and big upside will always make for volatility. The short-term share price has no bearing on the business.

The current likelihood is that negotiations will open shortly with the Iraqi Government and Ministry of Oil. This is likely to be under the old (pre-2003) law, at least initially. This is what they should have done all along.



We will acquire a risk-sharing contract (PSA or equivalent though it will be called something diplomatic) on a major development field (Halfaya or equivalent) as well as world-class exploration acreage. This is a rare prize. No one will care in a year's time what the share price fluctuated between.






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Fiona ***********@hotmail.com]
Sent: 13 November 2007 10:54
To: David Horgan
Subject: Bears



Good morning David,
Amazing what bear raiders can do to market sentiment on a share.
Yesterday and today' s fast drop on PET has been triggered by shorters on ADVFN
and FYB trying to push 'information' that:
1) The IOM is scheduling meetings with the majors for TSAs very soon in Jordan
and that the poster concerned who claims to be in Saudi was very surprised to hear that Petrel was not on the list. Claims it was in the Arabic press 'somewhere' but no reference.
2) That Anadarko, who were given a one year contract to do a reservoir study in Feb 2005 are more likely to get a TSA on S&L than PET are etc.

Obviously, I would hope that these things are not true and the prospects for PET are as good as ever. Amazing what lengths some people will go to to 'spin' their poisons.
I see the Koreans have just been awarded a contract for Kurdistan so perhaps they will be less likely to pursue other areas.
Best wishes
Fiona

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tumbling again

is it time to get worried

scotty...i been looking at the number of buys each day this week...someone is hoovering them up....can't be long now either way...feeling confident if the present process continues..

watcher

i dont know

but volumes seem a lot less of last week or so.........and graph is going down and down......on 2nd stage down by looks of things

Look back over the posts and chart for 3 years or so, rumours of contracts, shares go up, contracts fail to materialise months after they should have, due to all manner of things, religious hols, D Horgon "dying in a car crash" etc etc, where is the HCL that should have gone through in September? down comes the share price. I'm not trying to be negative, I really believe PET will come good, just that if you are thinking of buying at well over 1, do your homework! I still believe they will hit 50p then I wil buy back in, if not I am in NPE & PXS. I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.
Good luck to all those holding.
Chris

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http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3589236097139993875&q=war+for+oil+2003&total=142&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=2

The moment of truth is getting ever nearer, I was under the impression that the HCL was to have been passed before the end of september, however by the end of the year (we are told) it will be passed, 6 weeks to go then.
2517

i hold my hand up now and re-confirm that i am not a fan of this stock ...... this is primarily because i am fed up getting burnt by minnow oilies and also because PET are attempting to operate in super-unstable iraq, albeit that in 3/5 years (if we're lucky) that may have changed for the better.

in the meantime, i post below a 6 month chart which rather disturbingly shows sp zipping south through both 25 and 50 dma without pausing for breath ..... not a good sign




could have posted much the same about FOGL, though in that instance, the great weakness is that the sp is totally dependent upon accurate speculation!

Security is improving.Wouldn't compare PET with FOGL.PET assured ratification Block 6 on passing of HCL.Waiting on news of contracts pre and or post HCL.

When PET awarded contracts re-rating sp follows on proven oil reserves.

Let's invest in a war zone. Erm, don't think so. ;-0

PET have been working in Iraq for a decade under SH & 5 successive governments!

PET has very successfully operated EPC - Engineering, Procurement and supervision of Construction contract at the Subba and Luhais (S&L) oil fields.Largest contract of its kind.

PET have also completed TCA - Technical Cooperation Agreement on the Merjan field.Merjan has 700-800 million barrels of proven reserves.Actual reserves are likely to be in excess of 3 billion barrels.In a TCA they do a study of the field using modern 3D seismic and work with the Iragi Ministry of Oil, doing training and transfer of technology. This allows them to design a plan for the development of the field. In addition, it builds trust between the parties.

PET have been awarded TCA & started work on another Dhafriya oil field.Dhafriya was mentioned at AGM & confirmed in Interims.

TCA work is partnered with ITOCHU one of the biggest Japanese trading companies & largest purchaser of crude oil.

PET were awarded exploration rights for Block 6 (Sunni) in the Western Desert.This is an unexplored area of Iraq estimated over 100 billion barrels of oil in the Western Desert.PET working there over the last 7 years 3-5 billion barrels of oil recoverable.Block 6 awarded in days of SH.Technocrats at the Oil Ministry have told PET title to Block 6 will be ratified by the government on passing of HCL.

Then you have Halfaya.We know that PET have been asked by those at highest level of MOI to have a look at Halfaya.More recently PET went to meet with Senior Iraq officials in Tehran mainly concerning oil fields in Iraq.Halfaya is in the south - Shia area.Halfaya gigantic company making with 14-16 billion barrels of oil.There are differences of opinion on how much can be recovered 4b low MOI estimate & 8b-10b ITOCHU I think.

Halfaya is expected to produce a minimum of 600,000 b/d and to produce for 30 years.

PET is able to work in Iran.An Irish company is a neutral country teamed up & partnered by ITOCHU Japanese neutral.Scales tip PET as favourites for Halfaya.btw PNG sister company works in Iran (Shia)

Reference has been made to a second giant oil field which PET has also been asked to look at.

If all of the above were not enough PET has been awarded Jordan PSA East Safawi (Sunni) which will come into its own 2008/2009.

In PET therefore you have in prospect billions barrels of oil, minnow to independent Iraq Oil company.

PET have raised funds recent placing.We know Founder requested placing- Gartmore buying back shares sold @ 60p for 115p.No cash problems as partnered by ITOCHU to be paid in oil therefore no dilution of shares.

David Horgan MD is impressive.Watched War for Oil video & UK Iraq Commision dozens of times.DH highly respected with qualifications to boot.He is one smart cookie.Trust & respect Company & management.

PET in line for PSAs probably by another name in respect of contracts awarded before HCL is approved.DYOR.

I work in the oil business and have done for 27 years. Over the past 4-5 years I've worked with numerous people and not 1 would go over there no matter how much you pay. Some might, but they're few and far between.


How you going to drill your wells without us?