http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Hi Markymar,

I agree that Rockhopper should jump back a fair few points today as I feel the sp was hit too much on Friday.
As to iii, I used to regularly follow RKH on iii although I tend to read only a few posts these days by those that I believe are very knowledgeable in the ways of the Oilies.
I stopped wading through the hundreds of posts per day (one day I think it was well over 500) and even take no notice of the 'ticks given' unless they are for those posts from the few that I know talk sense.
The RKH thread on iii is almost a waste of time wading through, as many posters are ticked up for absolute rubbish.
About a weeks ago were posts that contained nothing but around 50 smilies, another was a long yerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, both these got over 20 ticks.
All you have to do to get a multitude of ticks is to post Buy Buy Buy repeatedly.

People who post such rubbish and those that tick up those posts do nothing but clog up the site, making it almost impossible to sort out the good content posts.

I have also noticed that a few of the best posters on iii have given up and stopped posting.

I appreciate we see the odd Muppet post on MoneyAm RKH but usually every post on here is easily worth double figures on iii.

As to the next drill being the important one, fully agree, as if that drill comes in with poor results then the sp will take an even bigger knock than it did on Friday. But if it comes in good, then the high of Septembers 5 will become history.

be busy here today - onwards & upwards - quote up means rise expected = shares needed by mms

Canaccord

Rockhopper Exploration plc (RKH : AIM): So close -- BUY, target 494p
Rockhopper Exploration plc

RKH : AIM : 278p | 717.0M | Buy, 494p

So close -- BUY, target 494p
Richard Slape, 44.20.7050.6643

Plenty of encouragement but not much oil

Rockhopper has announced the results of well 14/10-3 offshore the Falkland Islands. It encountered good quality reservoir at a depth from 2,425 metres to 2,535 metres in a sequence of four main sandstone intervals. Within these, 64 metres of gross reservoir sand was encountered with net sand of 54 metres.

Given that reservoir quality is regarded as a significant risk in the area, Rockhopper said it was pleased to have encountered a thick sequence of sand with average porosity of 18-20% and peaks of up to 25%. Unfortunately, samples from the first, second and fourth sands contained only water.

Samples recovered from the third sand contained approximately 20% live oil that appears to be of medium gravity. Furthermore, pressure readings taken from this interval indicate that it is lying on the same oil pressure gradient as the main Sea Lion fan in well 14/10-2. However, when Rockhopper performed a mini Drill Stem Test (DST) on this horizon, it produced only water into the well.

Only the upper end of the resources range should be affected

The result of 14/10-3 is disappointing but investors should not forget that it was an exploration well located 8 kilometres from the Sea Lion discovery. So, while it now seems unlikely that the upper end of the previous range of resource estimates (669 mmbbl on a P10 basis) for the field will be realised, we do not think this will have an adverse impact on earlier P50 resource estimates.

Disappointment creates a buying opportunity

Assuming it contains reserves 170 mmbbl, we estimate the Sea Lion oil field is worth equivalent of 402p per Rockhopper share when allied to an oil price of US$70/barrel flat real and a 12% discount rate. Adding an estimated 92p/share of net cash increases the total to 494p, which is our target.

We reiterate our BUY rating.

Oriel...brokers all up on this

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, BUY, 277p) - Sea Lion appraisal drilling, some encouragement but not definitive

Rockhopper has announced the results of the first appraisal well (14/10-3) drilled on the Sea Lion oil discovery in the North Falklands

The well was a bold step-out drilled 8km to the north-west of the original well testing the northern lobe of the field and the P10 resource upside case of >600mmb

The well encountered good quality reservoir sands in 4 intervals with net sands of 54m (out of gross sands 64m)

Three of the four sands (1,2 and 4) were water bearing while one sand (3) had net oil pay of 7.3m, albeit with high water saturation cut-offs. MDT samples recovered live oil however a mini Drill Stem Test recovered water, the reason for which has yet to be determined.

The Lower Sand 4 appears to form the downdip lobe of the S2 fan. Oil staining in the cores gives some encouragement that the fan could be oil bearing updip

This result has been viewed negatively by the market, understandable given its complexity, but there is certainly significant encouragement from a number of factors

The fact that decent, thick reservoir sequences was encountered was a key pre-drill risk while it appears that the sands, particularly the oil bearing Sand 3, are in pressure communication with the original discovery well.

The results have limited the upside resource case in the field (P10 upside pre-drill seen as >600mmb) but has done nothing to impact the P50 potential of c170-240mmb centred on the southern part of the Sea Lion fan. The rig will now move to a location 2.3km to the north-west of the original discovery well, a lower risk appraisal location and one which will make or break the investment case in the shares in our view.

Our NAV stands at 491p/sh after taking account of the 14/10-3 well costs made up of cash of (c80p/sh) and Sea Lion resources of 240mmb risked at 66% (411p/sh)

We re-iterate our BUY recommendation. The company is fully funded for a multi-well appraisal and exploration programme this year around Sea Lion and we are looking to the next appraisal well to help de-risk the P50 resource case and our valuation

Taken a punt at 281p, it seems is due for the bounce back.
There is some help on the order book with stronger bid side

Back to 350p within a couple of weeks.....now have almost as many as before the original strike when they were 33p.....

marky, cielo good posts dudes - i'm also in this morning again!!! bouncing now!

Hi cielo,

I also topped up on Fri at 281p. Don't know if you are aware but due to the IT change at the LSE today, some orders are missing from the order book, meaning the bid/offer price is not quite accurate, IE on a couple of companies the mid price has been a tad more than the offers price. They hope to have rectified the problem soon.

Greek.

greekman

I am aware of the LSE problems are affecting the prices, my broker said that too when I placed my order, saying "I am not sure I will able to buy at this price due to the showing on my screen is not the price trading, he did eventually on a T+15 basis.

I had to give him some guidence from my Level 2 not money am, that has been very good from the start, I can not say the same for my monitor prices in different places

edison.....

Although a significant oil find would have been the optimal outcome from well 14/10-3, two out of three successful wells would be at the upper stretch of exploration odds. This aggressively located exploration well was testing the extent of the Sea Lion fan and located 8km from the Sea Lion discovery. We see some clear positives from the result: the well encountered good quality reservoir; hydrocarbons were present; and the sands were charged. Reservoir development looks encouraging in the northern lobe of the fan and potentially in the newly identified S2 feature. RKH will now focus on drilling a number of appraisal wells on the southern lobe of the Sea Lion feature. We do not believe this result has any impact on the P50 for Sea Lion. The work moves from exploration geology to development geology. The sharp fall in the share price presents an interesting opportunity ahead of the lower risk first appraisal well, located within the Sea Lion Discovery Area.

rkh are worth 4 to 5 on previous discovery alone - talk about looking a gift horse in the preverbials!!! bargain basement at the moment but bouncing nicely

commmmmmmmmmmmmmmmeeeeeeeeeee onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn lol!

Looking at chart Indicators, 2 points to take from them

Share price well below the lower Bollinger band ( buy signal )
And Slow Stochastick bouncing from oversold position ( Buy signal )

Now showing 285.25 bid....286.00 offer.....mid 282.65. Yet another blip caused by the LSE new system. I suppose it was to be expected. No doubt (I hope) by close it will be showing correct pricing.

3 squid end of day!!! lol

lunchtime rally and afternoon sessions will be interesting!

1mill more buys than sells thought this would of been back over 3 level by now......come on the Rockkkkkkkkkkkk!!!!

Level 2 is a joke at the minute,need to get it sorted.

From Stu on iii and worth a read.

Back on 01/02/2011 I posted this...

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:RKH.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=7714476&prevpost=7714116&nextpost=7716335

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I think if they found 5m of pay and it was the same API and pressure gradient as 14/10-2 then the SP will rocket...

As Dave Bodecott will be signing off a statement that declares the arial extent of Sea Lion to be in excess of 100km^2.


They don't need many meters of pay here... a slither of Sea Lion out here proves that Sea Lion is far larger than acknowledged by current volumetrics.

As for S2 they are drilling down dip and on the edge (distal). So S2 will need to be approaching it's spill point for them to encounter an oil reservoir however they may be able to take a core and figure out if S2 is/was a migration pathway for the Northern region of RKH's acreage.

This well has upside in the arial extent of Sea Lion, where even a small interval of net pay may mean a vast upgrade.

Also they are looking at S2 but they might miss any oil in place as they are far from the optimal drill site for S2. However if S2 comes in then it is full to spill (as Sea Lion seems to be) and even a small interval of net pay may mean a significant upgrade on resources.


Only time will tell as we near the halfway stage of the well.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Kind of justifies my out-of-market day rate, no?

Except the SP didn't rocket did it! It actually dropped 18% on this news.


I can't for the life of me think why?

Perhaps people didn't read this bit;-
"The results are indicative of significant upside potential elsewhere across the Sea Lion and S2 features."


Couldn't quite figure it out at first but then it dawned on me. Too many people simple don't understand what the RNS says.

Then over the weekend there were plenty of posters on the BB's who were worried and very nervous. Don't be.

There was even nervous BB talk of a possible downgrade! Why?
Because they encountered oil outside of the "Sea Lion discovery area"?

F F S, this has 'more good news coming' written all over it.



In the RNS Sam Moody said "The results are indicative of significant upside potential elsewhere across the Sea Lion and S2 features."


This is what he meant...


Just to be absolutely clear about this... 14/10-3 cannot negatively impact the Sea Lion P90 discovery area, simply because it was not drilled in the P90 discovery area.

Just to be absolutely clear again... 14/10-3 has found oil in the Northern Lobe of Sea Lion.

The parameters for declaring an oil discovery are a water saturation of 60% or less and a porosity of 10% or more.

14/10-3 has a water saturation of 63% and a porosity of 18%.


The water saturation was just 3% outside the "Oil Discovery" threshold.


HOWEVER, it doesn't end there. The reservoir sections of this well were cut using a core barrel and NOT a drill bit.

The problem when coring is that the core barrel is 90ft long, whereas a drill bit is just 8 inches. Coring is very slow compare to drilling with a rock bit (coring is typically < 5ft/hr, drilling is 15-60ft/hr).

Now if I drill through, for example 7m of sand, it will take me approximately 1.5 hours. My rock bit (8inches long) will be turning against the sidewall at any given location for approximately...

[ 8in / (15 ft/hr) ] = 3 minutes.

Now when I core through, for example 7m of sand, my entire core barrel (90ft) must pass through all the sand. So in this case my core barrel (90ft long) will be turning against the sidewall at any given location for approximately...

[ 90ft / (5 ft/hr) ] = 18 hours.


Is this important? YES!

When coring the sidewall is subject to 360 times the duration of abrasion/wear compared to vanilla drilling.


Is this important? YES!

Because of this coring usually causes some skin damage to the well, the sand gains become worn smooth and flat, like if you used a grinder on a pumice stone.

(Skin damage is when the permeability of the formation around the wellbore and/or at the sidewall is reduced)


Is this important? YES!

The MDT Sampling tool takes samples from the sidewall of the well. Skin damage has a direct effect on the ability of certain fluids to flow into the well from the sidewall. The more viscous the fluid the more it is impeded by skin damage.


Is this important? YES!

Skin damage at the reservoir will result in the MDT sampling a greater water fraction than the reservoir contains in reality as an live oil is impeded by the skin damage.


Is this important? YES!

In this particular well the water saturation of the samples is 63%. If this were 60% or below then this well would be an oil discovery.


Is this important? YES!

How else do you explain "Four conventional cores were cut through the reservoir totalling 101 metres and both the bleeding of live oil and oil staining were observed throughout."


What does this mean?

Basically the cores trump everything else. There is nothing better than having a actual piece of the formation sitting on a bench under a microscope in a lab.


The results of this well do not stack up. They do not concur with each other or with any one conclusion. However the cores will trump them all.

Looking back at the cores we have...

"Four conventional cores were cut through the reservoir totalling 101 metres and both the bleeding of live oil and oil staining were observed throughout."

"observed throughout" that's an interesting phrase? I'm guessing that means more than just 7m of pay in Sand 3?

There could be some VERY interesting news just around the corner.


< Watch this space >

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/326934/fdcrockhopperfeb142011.pdf flash note part 2

Marky, got your mail, wouldn't let it worry you. If you keep your thread up to date as you do I shall stay put, very rarely bother to look at the other thread. ttfn .,.

I like the graph on the right hand side of the header.
It is showing the price of RKH at 330p.
Now all we need is the "real" price to match the graph!