http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Level 2 is a joke at the minute,need to get it sorted.

From Stu on iii and worth a read.

Back on 01/02/2011 I posted this...

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:RKH.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=7714476&prevpost=7714116&nextpost=7716335

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I think if they found 5m of pay and it was the same API and pressure gradient as 14/10-2 then the SP will rocket...

As Dave Bodecott will be signing off a statement that declares the arial extent of Sea Lion to be in excess of 100km^2.


They don't need many meters of pay here... a slither of Sea Lion out here proves that Sea Lion is far larger than acknowledged by current volumetrics.

As for S2 they are drilling down dip and on the edge (distal). So S2 will need to be approaching it's spill point for them to encounter an oil reservoir however they may be able to take a core and figure out if S2 is/was a migration pathway for the Northern region of RKH's acreage.

This well has upside in the arial extent of Sea Lion, where even a small interval of net pay may mean a vast upgrade.

Also they are looking at S2 but they might miss any oil in place as they are far from the optimal drill site for S2. However if S2 comes in then it is full to spill (as Sea Lion seems to be) and even a small interval of net pay may mean a significant upgrade on resources.


Only time will tell as we near the halfway stage of the well.
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Kind of justifies my out-of-market day rate, no?

Except the SP didn't rocket did it! It actually dropped 18% on this news.


I can't for the life of me think why?

Perhaps people didn't read this bit;-
"The results are indicative of significant upside potential elsewhere across the Sea Lion and S2 features."


Couldn't quite figure it out at first but then it dawned on me. Too many people simple don't understand what the RNS says.

Then over the weekend there were plenty of posters on the BB's who were worried and very nervous. Don't be.

There was even nervous BB talk of a possible downgrade! Why?
Because they encountered oil outside of the "Sea Lion discovery area"?

F F S, this has 'more good news coming' written all over it.



In the RNS Sam Moody said "The results are indicative of significant upside potential elsewhere across the Sea Lion and S2 features."


This is what he meant...


Just to be absolutely clear about this... 14/10-3 cannot negatively impact the Sea Lion P90 discovery area, simply because it was not drilled in the P90 discovery area.

Just to be absolutely clear again... 14/10-3 has found oil in the Northern Lobe of Sea Lion.

The parameters for declaring an oil discovery are a water saturation of 60% or less and a porosity of 10% or more.

14/10-3 has a water saturation of 63% and a porosity of 18%.


The water saturation was just 3% outside the "Oil Discovery" threshold.


HOWEVER, it doesn't end there. The reservoir sections of this well were cut using a core barrel and NOT a drill bit.

The problem when coring is that the core barrel is 90ft long, whereas a drill bit is just 8 inches. Coring is very slow compare to drilling with a rock bit (coring is typically < 5ft/hr, drilling is 15-60ft/hr).

Now if I drill through, for example 7m of sand, it will take me approximately 1.5 hours. My rock bit (8inches long) will be turning against the sidewall at any given location for approximately...

[ 8in / (15 ft/hr) ] = 3 minutes.

Now when I core through, for example 7m of sand, my entire core barrel (90ft) must pass through all the sand. So in this case my core barrel (90ft long) will be turning against the sidewall at any given location for approximately...

[ 90ft / (5 ft/hr) ] = 18 hours.


Is this important? YES!

When coring the sidewall is subject to 360 times the duration of abrasion/wear compared to vanilla drilling.


Is this important? YES!

Because of this coring usually causes some skin damage to the well, the sand gains become worn smooth and flat, like if you used a grinder on a pumice stone.

(Skin damage is when the permeability of the formation around the wellbore and/or at the sidewall is reduced)


Is this important? YES!

The MDT Sampling tool takes samples from the sidewall of the well. Skin damage has a direct effect on the ability of certain fluids to flow into the well from the sidewall. The more viscous the fluid the more it is impeded by skin damage.


Is this important? YES!

Skin damage at the reservoir will result in the MDT sampling a greater water fraction than the reservoir contains in reality as an live oil is impeded by the skin damage.


Is this important? YES!

In this particular well the water saturation of the samples is 63%. If this were 60% or below then this well would be an oil discovery.


Is this important? YES!

How else do you explain "Four conventional cores were cut through the reservoir totalling 101 metres and both the bleeding of live oil and oil staining were observed throughout."


What does this mean?

Basically the cores trump everything else. There is nothing better than having a actual piece of the formation sitting on a bench under a microscope in a lab.


The results of this well do not stack up. They do not concur with each other or with any one conclusion. However the cores will trump them all.

Looking back at the cores we have...

"Four conventional cores were cut through the reservoir totalling 101 metres and both the bleeding of live oil and oil staining were observed throughout."

"observed throughout" that's an interesting phrase? I'm guessing that means more than just 7m of pay in Sand 3?

There could be some VERY interesting news just around the corner.


< Watch this space >

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/326934/fdcrockhopperfeb142011.pdf flash note part 2

Marky, got your mail, wouldn't let it worry you. If you keep your thread up to date as you do I shall stay put, very rarely bother to look at the other thread. ttfn .,.

I like the graph on the right hand side of the header.
It is showing the price of RKH at 330p.
Now all we need is the "real" price to match the graph!

Markymar,

Excellent post. The one sentence 'Couldn't quite figure it out at first but then it dawned on me. Too many people simple don't understand what the RNS says', says it all.

I feel many who sold last Friday were newbies to the company and have probably spent very little if any time researching Rockhopper, but invested purely on what they thought the latest drilling would bring.

i confess it does feel something like the traditional bran tub ..... you know there's goodies there somewhere, but it's the devil's own job to find them

good posts above - bit of a flat day here surprisingly - ah well we have the rest of the week! gl

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/broker-spotlight/4553/broker-roundup-gulf-keystone-petroleum-rockhopper-exploration-planet-payment-renovo-4553.html

.

bought a few more whilst a 1 less than last buy.,.

makes sense bb - personally just waiting here at the mo.

RKH

Goldman Sachs Update :

Conviction buy, target price cut to 640p from 729p

Is on the move up now on strong order book

.

.

Nice to see a little bounce,should see an RNS on Monday or Tuesday that the OG has spud.

Markymar - will core samples have been returned to UK for analysis and, if so, how long till a result is likely to be announced? Could such samples help clear up the ambiguous results from Sand 3?

carsie68, I would think most core samples will be back in UK or on there way back soon, how long for this detailed analyst will take I dont know, some great debating going on iii Over the last few days by some very qualified experts in there fields with different views.

Two post that stand out and it looks like we were very close to an oil dicovery and it could change after been in the lab is Stu

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ARKH.L&threshold=50&it=le&action=detail&id=7793814&prevpost=7790420&nextpost=7794261

Also Gramacho post

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ARKH.L&threshold=50&it=le&action=detail&id=7808091&prevpost=7806240&nextpost=7812908

Roadshow in progress and should be spud of the appraisal well RNS on Monday/early next week.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42d2b592-3ab3-11e0-9c1a-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1EG7WWziy

Rockhopper Exploration, 0.7 per cent better at 271p, was in focus as the company started an investor roadshow.
Thursdays meetings was hosted by Merrill Lynch and Fridays will be at the Victoria offices of Canaccord Genuity