http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Looks like we have a little bounce today,level 2 is looking good even XEL on the move,just need the sun to shine now.

Biggest holding in my portfolio......with the original discovery and flow test plus cash, : that surely will underpin the sp, even if the deeper sands have nothing to show the existing discovery to my way of thinking should maintain the sp around this level....or am I wrong to think this way ?.

Still foggy this way marky but a small ray of sunshine on the sp :-)

Sorry to hear that avsec. Not sure those kind of opportunities for big money come round very often. No harm in being greedy, jusy not too greedy!

Much has been said about the campaign in the Falklands and the city seem to have fallen out of love with the idea of a new oil province; maybe understandably given the behaviour of Phipps et al over at DES. Is there still life in this campagn or is the Sealion about to roll over and die?

I value Rockhoppers oil at 6.50 per barrel in the ground; a find of 90mmbl is all we need to justify the current capitalisation of 600m. The most recent CPR illustrates a P50 of 170mmbl (thats a best guess or mean figure). So therefore based on what we now know the SP should be almost 5. That to me means RKH are hugely undervalued and its maybe a bit of a crude way of calculating a valuation, but it seems logical.

I want to add to this crude evaluation model a number of number of extremely bullish indicators which may should point to further upside potential. Firstly the oil discovery at SL2 (14/10-3) found oil some 8km away on the same pressure gradient at 14/10-2.

MDT pressure readings taken over Sand 3 indicate that it appears to be lying on the same oil pressure gradient as the main Sea Lion fan in well 14/10-2, indicating the potential for good lateral communication. (RNS: 11/02/11)

This current appraisal will use the geological data gleaned from their previous drills on the East Flank Fairway and I would imagine a drill 2km from the original discovery would be targeting thicker sands with a view to increasing potential net pay and therefore increased volumentrics.

Secondly, people have short memories, think back to the flow test of 14/10-2 and remember the technical fault that caused the guns to misfire during the flow test; thereby reducing the 242mmbl figure to 170mmbl as they didnt test the lower fan? So the lower fan is not even included in the CPR. Also remember the RNS back in June

it appears that all sands encountered beneath this regional seal at the Sea Lion location are charged with oil and no oil water contacts were encountered.

and

The oil down to level of 2,591 metres subsea is 116 metres beneath the lowest mapped point of the Sea Lion fan. The entire Sea Lion fan has an aerial extent of over 45 sq km and there are strong seismic indications of thicker reservoir packages elsewhere in the fan. The oil down to level is significantly lower than the lowest point of the Sea Lion main fan.

Ive heard the words significant upside potential used many time by Jungels and Moody, given that were at circa 40% discount to pre 10/4-3 prices when theyve said this, this seems to be an opportunity of lifetime on a risk reward basis.

What would happen if there is greater net pay at 14/10-4 than at 14/10/-2? In addition; Moody et al havent sold a single share thus far. Director transactions, for me, form a key part of my decision making model.

Finally, technically RKH keeps bouncing off support at 232 which is now the 20 EMA, if this falls support has is given by the 200 day average. The RSI looks good and many of the indicators have turned in the past week.

Crazy prices over at RKH and one day, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon the market will correct itself.

Markymar,

Very good summing up. Several ifs still abound but I fully agree that the upside potential is mind blowing.
Due to the ever present risk factors, I am as committed as I want to be in RKH, but for those who intend to increase their holdings, there can't be a much better time than now.
Fundamentals are still good, but it is purely sentiment and nervousness that have dragged the SP downward, all this will change within the next month, and as you rightly state the market will correct itself.

Markymar,
Good to see you have recovered your nerve after revisiting the old RNSs

cheers carsie68

She is on the move and looking good on level 2

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/687/david-hart-from-westhouse-securities-backs-the-north-sea-and-the-falklands-oil-stories-.html

David Hart from Westhouse Securities backs the North Sea and the Falklands oil stories

A mention on RKH

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/232669/Oil-price-fuels-share-boom-

OIL PRICE FUELS SHARE BOOM

The Rumor brigade have started doing the rounds on some sites/boards, but thank goodness not this site.

Although there was plenty of detail/information from the last drilling, not the slightest bit of info leaked out. Strange that already there are rumors doing the rounds of 'Gas pockets and shows of oil' above expectation.
I am not saying that these rumors are true or false, only that I would bet that now the ball has started to roll, we will start to see counter rumors of dusters and dry holes.
Obviously half the posters who post such rumors will be right and will be quick in saying so, whilst the wrong brigade will fade quietly into the ether.
Anyone who believes pre official news releases of either positive or negative content is taking a far bigger gamble than any investment in oil explorers. You may as well go to a casino and put your money on red or black.

On an alternative site there are around 100 plus posts per day on RKH and yet on here the figure are usually in single digits, and yet far more posts on here are meaningful whilst well over 90% of the post on the other site are complete and utter rubbish.

MoneyAm tend to attract posts of those who have an IQ of at least 100 whilst some other sites attract some who would struggle to spell IQ.

Mind you we do get a few muppets on here, but very few.

that last comment really hurt greek, mind you the sentence above made me laugh....how do you spell IQ??

greekman ,rumours will fly round as people do know people,ARG pulled crew members in, told them if any leaks you will be sacked, on the OG crew have been leaving as moral has been low and they have been getting replaced by Yanks..all we need is gun ho yanks on board.

Balerboy,

As I can still read you posts, it means you are not on my muppet list (they are all on my squelch list).

Markymar,

Agreed. Human nature is such that rumors are spread, thats what makes them powerful and dangerous.

Hey.........I'm not a MUPPET.......yyyeeeaaaahhaa.....ooops those gibby pill kicking in!!

.

Should be entering the original discovery area now....surprised there's not more interest and information ....

Hi RF,

They run a very tight ship re information. Everyone was surprised that nothing leaked out (no pun intended) from the previous drilling until the official announcement.
I presume and hope this drill will be the same, the none leaking of info that is, not the result.
As to the result, if they are as good as we hope and expect then it will really be take of time, big style. But if the results are disappointing then the sp will be knocked far more than I think most expect due to the fact that the more people build up their hopes, the bigger the knock if things go wrong.

Very important time for all holders of Rockhopper, but as far as my portfolio is concerned, I have 2 more companies that are in a similar position of being on the verge of either very good news that will set then alight, or very bad news that will drastically knock my portfolio value big time.

I'm just hoping that they confirm the existing discovery, ......not sure about the deeper part......confirming what they have should send the sp north of 300p....now anything else would be incredible....but just to put this above 300p would please me...

heading towards 200p not looking good, any news?