.

Too late

Seems Shares Mag has FOGL as a buy - well done chaps, its a Strong buy imo and I have been since 50p :)

You have been what since 50p?

suffering from prostate problems i think ..... and if shares mag has fogl down as a strong buy, it's almost certainly a good signal to short :-)

Proselenes is right....in my view this is a fantastic investment......now that we have condensate on the smallest of prospects..or one of the smallest of prospects....imagine what Loligo could be.....if it is gas 10 trillion cubic feet perhaps and if it is oil.....?.....I would be speechless...or gobsmacked....if you can say that.....guys and dolls : you have to be in this one...it's a risk but so is everything....and Loligo is just one of many others......this southern and eastern falkland plays are hot...hot...hot...and another matter is Loligo is I think if I'm not mistaken 150 miles away from Darwin......I mean this is a huge distance away .....so it could be gas or oil......there just has to be oil within this very large area...!.complete and utter nonsense selling this share now......I'm doing the opposite....by the way everytime I read about Loligo It reminds me of Lola .....you know ...that song from .....Barry Manilow.....at the copa.... copacabana......those were the days...(sigh).......so Lola...lolacabana........

A nice pic for the weekend :



.

Rf, I have a feeling your post at nearly half past ten on a friday evening (#448) may have been influenced greatly by alcohol intake??? Sounds like you had a good evening!!!! ;o)

Euhhh...just a little...had a long day...

I presume that by now BOR will have spud Stebbing.......check out FOGL's annual report......lovely.......potential to be another GKP here.....I'm convinced something commercial will be hit with one of these wells...might be gas or it might be oil.....perhaps only a couple of hundred million barrels.......but still worth getting out of the ground...nice pics..Prosels.....just like a Christmas card landscape scene......makes me go all...aaahhhhh !....

RF, no, the rig is still on location at Darwin.

Stebbing should be spudding later next week.

It takes time.....I reckon that a rise in sp values is on the cards once again....I'm starting to wnder if right across the north and east licences, there aren't more sea lion discoveries just waiting to be drilled.....it's a shorter distance from SeaLion to Loligo than it is from Darwin to Loligo....going through the presentation : a dozen or more prospects.....mighty unlucky if there is not a commercial amount of hydrocarbons waiting there......

Starting to rise again !....ahhh,,,the safety of british waters.......Drake...Raleigh...Nelson and such....

This is a dire day for me, my cash position has still not settled and i am left standing on the train station as the gravy train departs. Brilliant week ahead.

PS - would be a brilliant week if we got some farm in news....... thats for sure.

who is PS (456)? ..... the train's gone nowehere, and even if it has chugged out of the station, another will be along in due course - i.e. no hurry; no panic


Mr P - if lots and lots of things!!!!

150p prior to Loligo drilling results.....sure....

RF - that would be disappointing.

Given the Loligo potential and based on DES and BOR - should be 200p to 250p before Loligo results.

You're an optimist.....would be nice because a free ride would be possible but I reckon they are going to hit something big !...doubt if the sp will be that high...

Numis: Borders & Southern (Buy, TP: 175p)

Opening up the South Falkland Basin

In our view, Borders and Southern's Darwin exploration well has proven a working hydrocarbon system in the South Falkland Basin, confirming the existence of an extensive marine source previously known to exist to the East and West of the company's acreage. The Darwin well appears to have hit high quality Lower Cretaceous reservoir, in-line with prognosis, with a thick, homogeneous gas condensate bearing interval.

Clearly, understanding the liquid content of the discovery will be key in determining its value. Based on the aerial extent, net pay and reservoir quality of the Darwin discovery we believe that a commercial stand-alone discovery remains a possibility.
We raise our target price from 86p/share to 175p/share, adjusting our valuation for the possibility of a commercial rich gas discovery at Darwin and a partially de-risked EMV for Stebbing.

• Opening up the South Falkland Basin: In our view, the Darwin well result helps de-risk the South Falkland Basin, confirming the existence of source rock, thick high quality sands and robust play types. Next steps in the SFB exploration programme include two important catalysts: 1) Determination of liquid content at Darwin (expected in approximately five weeks) 2) Testing the fold belt play type. Stebbing is the next prospect in the drilling schedule (expected to spud within one week) - a prospect for which the company estimates a P50 recoverable resource of 1280mmboe.

• Darwin - a potential stand-alone development: In our view, it would be wrong to rule out Darwin as a commercial stand-alone development. Detail released on aerial extent and net pay suggest a material discovery and we estimate recoverable gas at 2.3 to 3.7tcf. In our view, if the gas is sufficiently rich, a >200mmbbl condensate development remains a possibility and could be commercialised. Given the location of Darwin, we believe the most likely stand-alone development concept would involve condensate recovery with 100% of lean gas recycled back in to the reservoir - a development concept analogous to the Bayu-Undan phase I field development in the Timor Sea.

• Valuation: We have adjusted our NAV to include a rich gas discovery for Darwin risked at 50% commercial COS, and included an EMV valuation for Stebbing which now assumes a 30% commercial COS (10% oil case, 10% rich gas, 10% dry gas case). Please see note for full details. Our 175p/share target price stands at a 50% discount to NAV (350p/share) in order to pre-empt the dilutive effect of future share placings and farm-downs.

On the rise and rightly so.....