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SEFTON RESOURCES INC - UNDERRATED OIL PRODUCER (SER)     

ptholden - 04 Aug 2006 19:53


???

Sefton Resources is an independent AIM quoted Oil and Gas company operating in the US. The companys principal current assets are two producing oilfields in California (Tapia Canyon Field and Eureka Canyon Field); it is also in the process of buying up prospective coal bed methane acreage (CBM) in Kansas.

Update from July 2007 AGM

Finance

I revealed in my annual statement that discussions were well advanced with
Banking institutions. The final phase of the agreement with a suitable bank
without complex and restrictive terms is now very near. This is weeks away
rather than months.

Oil

Oil production at Tapia has averaged 4,100 BO during the last five months. Which
is in line with last years levels. Once this finance is in place we will be able
to move ahead with drilling.

Drilling

We have stayed close to drilling contractors and we are ready to move forward
quickly when this finance is available.

Steam generation

The equipment is now in place at Tapia. Preparation time is needed to connect
the equipment and carry out the necessary trials required to get the main work
started. We anticipate this steaming will start in the next couple of months. If
successful a significant amount of oil resources will move into the Proven
Producing Reserves category.

Joint Ventures

Discussions continue with a number of interested parties to develop our Anderson
counties gas assets.

New finance team

A new CFO has been appointed with good knowledge and experience of the oil
industry. A new assistant to undertake all the daily needs has also been
appointed.


SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS:

Sefton has two oil fields, both producing. One is already profitable, and the other is breaking even. This should generate good cashflow for the company over the medium term.
Sefton owns 100% of both its major oil interests and is now demerging its non-controlled oil interests in order to concentrate on those where it has full control (Sefton has recently disposed of its Canadian assets for CDN450k cash).
Sefton is establishing a track record of using modern extraction technologies to improve the efficiency of its fields.

WEAKNESSES:

Sefton has suffered from a number of one-off factors. While these were out of the companys control the problems it has faced since 2002 have held back development and taken up management time. Investor disenchantment may account for the current low rating.

OPPORTUNITIES:

Sefton has acquired acreage for CBM (coal bed methane) in Kansas. CBM gas production is a thriving market and Sefton believes it has acquired the acreage at advantageous prices. While this is a longer term prospect it is an exciting one and could eventually eclipse the oil interests.
There are a number of other fields in the Ventura Basin and more generally in California as a whole that Sefton may look to target now its cash flows are stronger.
Eureka is a semi-exploration play which may contain further upside. This cannot yet be evaluated.
At this valuation the company may prove an attractive target for a larger player.

THREATS

Owing to its geographical location the company continues to be exposed to the threat of bush fires, canyon floods and geological interruption (earthquake risk). Sefton is taking steps to mitigate this risk by investing in Kansas and although Forest Basin area is susceptible to tornados - gas facilities have a minimal surface footprint.

LINKS:

Sefton Resources Web Site

Quarterly Update (Mar 08)

Operations Update Dated 14 January 2008

Hardman Report

Final Results - Year Ended 31 Dec 2006

2007 AGM & Update

In The News - Oil Barrel Dated 31 January 2007

Daily California Crude Oil Prices (MIDWAY SUNSET 13)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

RAS - 20 Apr 2007 10:45 - 470 of 2350

capetown,

A wide spread will almost guarantee more selling than buying. Think about it -

Potential buyers are put off because the bid is so much lower than the offer.

But for those existing holders who might want to sell for some reason or other, the distance of the offer price to the bid is irrelavant to their sale.

RAS - 20 Apr 2007 10:47 - 471 of 2350

I think if they put the bid up to say 7.5p or 7.75p, so it was 7.5/8.0, it would almost certainly attract more buyers.

capetown - 20 Apr 2007 10:52 - 472 of 2350

Ras i take your point,but i bet it would also attract many sellers too,has has been the case.

RAS - 20 Apr 2007 11:07 - 473 of 2350

In my experience, especially with this share, people tend to buy when they perceive the price is going up, and sell when they perceive it to be going down or stagnating. Of course the best time to buy is when it's wallowing at the lows when everyone is slashing their wrists (metaphorically speaking).

capetown - 20 Apr 2007 13:45 - 474 of 2350

Lots of sellers again today,also spotted the two x 400k sells yeasterday,so i dont buy the assumption that the mms are short of or begging for stock.

RAS - 20 Apr 2007 14:06 - 475 of 2350

capetown,

The "two x 400k sells" yesterday was in fact a rollover, not sells.

RAS - 20 Apr 2007 14:07 - 476 of 2350

You don't need to buy any assumption capetown, just go to your broker and find out how many you can sell and at what price, compared to how many you can buy.

You will find that the MM's will take as many as you want.

capetown - 20 Apr 2007 14:38 - 477 of 2350

Well ras thats good to hear,just not counting my chicks before they hatch after the last dramatic rise before the fall,lets hope this time when the anticipated good news comes,1,that its good news,and 2 sp increase will be sustained.

RAS - 20 Apr 2007 14:46 - 478 of 2350

I agree. A price that goes up, and then stays up, is something that's always been lacking here in the past!

Greyhound - 20 Apr 2007 14:53 - 479 of 2350

And on that note, are we about to head higher again?

capetown - 20 Apr 2007 14:56 - 480 of 2350

Lets hope so.

cynic - 20 Apr 2007 16:45 - 481 of 2350

not a stock i have followed at all, but 6 month chart below ...... all a bit stratospheric at the moment and have no idea whether there is good logic behind the recent surge

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

green = 25 dma
red = 50 dma
black = 200 dma

ptholden - 20 Apr 2007 16:52 - 482 of 2350

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

Yep, all looks a bit toppy at the moment, but news is due, possibly next week.

Should have posted this chart Cynic (1 Year), if the news / update is good and also reflects in the SP we should see a 'Golden Cross', wowee :)

pth

rhino213 - 21 Apr 2007 09:37 - 483 of 2350

What is this mystical golden cross you speak off? Seriously, could you please explain what the hell you are talking about! Thanks!

RAS - 21 Apr 2007 12:16 - 484 of 2350

Look guys, I'm not sure how seriously we can take this kind of TA for Sefton Resources. It moves in a fairly erratic way unlike the smooth-running high volume big company shares.

Resistance/Support and Trend lines, yes to some extent, MA's maybe, if only to show that the price has broken out of long-running stagnation or mild down/up-trends, but to say that the stock is "Over-sold" or "Over-bought" is futile IMO. RSI's can stay oversold/bought for months, the price can soar many times above the 20-day moving average or whatever.

And of course, when good/bad news comes out, all these things become meaningless. The RSI or the 50-day SMA isn't going to stop this going to 20p sharpish if the news warrants it :)

cynic - 21 Apr 2007 15:53 - 485 of 2350

or, on your logic, to bugger all!

driver - 21 Apr 2007 16:13 - 486 of 2350

rhino213 Re golden cross
Definition

In technical analysis, what happens when the short moving average price of a stock (say, its 20-day moving average) cuts above a longer moving average (say, its 50-day average).

For chartists, this cross is a sign that sentiment in the market has turned decidedly in favour of the stock, especially if up to that point two moving averages have been moving roughly in parallel.

RAS - 21 Apr 2007 17:43 - 487 of 2350

In addition, for a true golden cross, both moving averages should be rising at the point of crossing, which in this case they will be.

I do like the golden cross actually, it basically just confirms what you can already see - that the price has found a new rising trend or a sharper rising trend after spending a while flatlining.

cynic - 21 Apr 2007 18:43 - 488 of 2350

i confess that even though i am a chart fan (no secret there), golden and dead crosses leave me cold, so to speak ..... in fact, this particular GC is a bit weak insofar as the 200 dma is not exactly on a charge - i.e to me, GC = strong cross by 50 + 200 dma and NOT 25 + 50 .... anyway, is there any solid reason for the recent strong sp performance, or is it just hype following hope?

ptholden - 21 Apr 2007 19:44 - 489 of 2350

Cynic

It's just hype following hope, of course. If you want to know why the SP is recovering I suggest you do some research, most of which is in the header.

Incidentally the GC may leave you cold, but it is considered an extremely Bullish indicator by those who have some knowledge of TA; incidentally the MAs on the SER chart I have posted are 50 & 200, NOT 25 & 50.

pth

Edit: Oh, and if the 200 MA was on a charge the other MAs would be above it, do buck up!
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