http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Having trouble pushing past that 2.80p mark,seem to hit it again today only to drop back again.

FCUK THE 2.80 MARK - WHERE IS THE RNS????

gildph i think it maybe a few days away the longer it takes the better in my eyes,this was never going to be a quick flow test they want to tick all the boxes this time.

Its a very tight ship with RKH always has been RNS will come when its ready.

Cheers Marky I agree I just hope it's good news - a lot to make up with this given DES disaster and RRR/XEL off cliff last few months - fingers and toes crossed!

Some crazy stuff being put out on RKH by http://twitter.com/#!/Real_C_Spencer

Is this paranoia or realism about AIM stocks and MM? Hope its not true.

Except about BP watching the flow test.....

See the ADVFN and assess it....

GL all

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/21/600951/markets-live/


NH but Merrill are pushing Rockhopper

NH Flow test to establish base-case commerciality

We are adding our BUY rated Rockhopper (PO 515p) to the BofAML Europe
MidCap 1 list of preferred stocks. RKH trades at a 58% discount to our 515p NAV,
the largest discount of all E&Ps under coverage. Market concerns surrounding
commerciality of the SeaLion discovery in the Falklands remain despite the recent successful appraisal well. We believe that positive results from the forthcoming flow test of this appraisal should prove market concerns overdone.

Given indications from prior wells and the thick pay encountered in this well (93m vs 53m at the original find), we firmly believe that sustained flow rates of c.4kboe/d are achievable and could even surprise on the upside.

NH Western flank offers significant upside

A further appraisal well located 4.2km to the west of the initial discovery well will follow these ongoing tests. This will be the first well to test the western extension of the field within managements larger mid-case area for the main fan, as well as targeting the lower fan. At prognosis the upper fan is set to thin out to the west and should be offset by the thickening of the lower fan. Whilst clearly riskier, we believe that the western flank well (worth 60p risked, 183p unrisked) could add an extra 50-60mmboe, and move SeaLions resources towards the 155mmboe level from the 80-100mmboe level currently discounted in the shares.

Southern extension another source of potential volumes

Ongoing 3D seismic studies should enable management to determine a high-case
area for the field including any potential southern extension. Early signs provided by neighbouring operators have already indicated a potential southern extension to the SeaLion field although management have been reluctant to be drawn on it.

Fully processed seismic data from the surveys is set to be completed by July,
followed by detailed interpretation of the results and a formal update to the market a few weeks thereafter.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

marky does this mean the time horizon for flow test results is towards the end of July?

Hal,I presume we will get an update from this flow test when the RNS comes out with a full CPR Report at a later date covering all the latest info.

marky so commerciality wont be confirmed before towards the end of July at the earliest?

Not sure Hal have sent email to get a bit more info and will get back,its looking good but there have been delays......as said full test this time no guns not going off this is the full works it takes time and report.

I have a good feeling to what little i know, when down the mine i click my clogs there clicking with sparks.

The next two months are truly pivotal for RKH.


See below for an idea of how quickly Sea Lion could move from 150MM bbl to 400MM+ bbl.


[IMG]http://i54.tinypic.com/5xkciv.jpg[/IMG]

The 150MM bbl figure is based on an area of 22km^2, and includes the main fan only.


RKH will now execture their plans to increase that figure by;


1). Collecting Pressure Transient data to produce a production CPR.

2). Appraise the western P50 region, increasing the areal extent of Sea Lion main from 22km^2 to 36km^2.

3). Appraise Sea Lion lower.

4). Assess seismic data on the Southern extent of the Sea Lion complex.

5). Explore the Northern Lobe, S2 and beyond.



Step 1 is just days away, step 2, 3 and 4 are all 1 month to six weeks away.

Step 5 is later ths year.



RKH are entering into the period where most of the value is going to be added. The team running the company have a strong track record for delivering on the specific task of proving up oilfields for development.

It's a great entry point, either before or after the test, this week or next week.

This test is another step which forms part of a solid process of delivering added value. It's a template the industry recognises, and is proven to work.

Yes there are risks along the way, but the risks are heavily front loaded, once you pass the commercial threshold the risks are reduced by an order of magnitude as the risk of a total loss is gone forever (commercially exploitable oil is always commercially exploited).


RKH are thundering past that threshold, and as demonstrated in the link they can quickly prove they're sitting on an extremely lucrative venture.


In fact the falklands are already attracting attention from industry strategists and business development managers as the number of ITT's and contracts issued continues to climb at break-neck pace.

Everyone has it down as a "growth region".


We are just 3 months from a second drilling rig joining the action.


You see the oil industry wont wait for a cue from the market to declare this commercially viable, commitments are already being made and contracts are being laid down, you have to move first and move fast otherwise you get caught behind or even locked out.


RKH are blazing a trail here, and it's the experience of their team that has allowed them to move this forward with such speed.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Markymar,

Obviously the figures mentioned above are still weighted by that 'if' factor, but your post is a good summing up of risk=reward.

Greek that post was by Stu on iii

OK, good to see it re-posted here though, as due to the huge amount of rubbish posted on iii, I rarely visit the RKH thread on there.

to late to call it......sorry

what do you reckon the sp will be on this news,
I need to close today- or buy?

* Well flowed at COMMERCIALLY VIABLE rates

* Well flowed at a stabilised rate of 5508 stb/d

* Well achieved a maximum stabilised flow rate of 9036 stb/d

* The Bard view the flow rates achieved as being commercially viable.

3D to come inside a month it will fly

KEY WORD FROM RNS

"The Board views the flow rates achieved as being commercially viable"

spot on that that is the key clause ..... i was guessing +50p being a reasonable target, but if there are indeed a lot of short positions, then these will be heavily targetted so at least in the short term, 50p may be pretty conservative

something wrong with the stockwatch prices!!!!!!!!!!!!