http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

tlars on iii

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Statement by Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani: Oil export initiative by the Kurdistan Regional Government
THU, 20 MAR 2014 18:22 | KRG.org

The negotiations with Baghdad on oil export and budgetary matters are ongoing. These negotiations have not yet resulted in any acceptable agreements.

As a goodwill gesture the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has offered to make a contribution to Iraq oil pipeline exports to give the negotiations the maximum chance of success.

The KRG contribution to oil export will be one hundred thousand (100,000) barrels per day effective from 1st April 2014, and will continue while the negotiations are proceeding in a positive direction.

The KRG has not set any preconditions for this initiative. In the coming weeks, the KRG will seek a full settlement with Baghdad on the way in which the KRG’s oil exports and oil sales revenues are managed and controlled.

The KRG shall at all times preserve its rights as defined in the permanent Constitution of Iraq.

From a oilman,
---------------------------------------------------------
,

1/ Look at Rig 842s recent photo ie we are testing (thats if recently took).

2/ Look at the bottom left hand corner at the tubulars , I'm unable to see them clearly but a small size , they are either a temporary test string or 3 1/2 drill pipe . So if the first they are very near to if not testing !, or the liner is about to be ran and that drill pipe is to run through the liner to drill the rat hole ie final section of the well to be drilled .

3/ The Central piece of equipment is Coiled Tubing ( google what you do with this !), the Vessels nearby are surface Gel Tanks .

4/ So this equipment is costly and can be lengthy to procure , rig up , test and run .


Remember these wells are fire and forget wells ie vertical so even though you can drill via them with a turbine and swivel BGA that they would not be used for that purpose .

This just about sums it up imo.


From Hub on iii:-

I'm still in a daze - and cannot believe the Bod's have left GKP shareholders literally in the lap of the gods.

Speechless. Just about everything I feared has come true.

Shareholders are now left with a ticking time bomb to contend with.

Here's what can diffuse it.

1. Sort $250mln in bonds/debt. In the prospectus they have given a deadline of 'by the end of April'. This is mostly likely due to MAY being the month where they have not cash left.

2. By memory - it didn't take very long to sort the CB's but then these were pre-planned and run by MC and not DB.

3. If they can't sort bonds, then they are taking about equity related finance such as share placings, sera's etc etc. If it comes to that, it's going to be very ugly and dilutive.

4. Asset sales. They keep mentioning AB sale like it's still an option. The cpr booked pretty low numbers andMOL are still working on several wells. Who knows?

Quite how they can achieve a listing on March 25th is anyones guess. Surely inadequate finance means the siting cannot go ahead. However, it seems to suggest that they will move on 25th to standard listing and then update on finance near end of April or earlier.

Now - imho if GKP bod's and DB think the bonds are a goer, then surely they would have tested the water before putting themselves in this tight spot. They postponed the standard listing last year and could have easily moved the listing to June or July and sorted funding before that date.

Logic just goes out of the window which makes me concerned that they (or some directors) may be seeking a mates rates equity raise. This would be tantamount to a manipulation of the share imho as the only reason an equity raise is potentially on the table is because GKP bod's put shareholders and the company into that tight spot. It was voluntary! No says you have to move off AIM. You can postpone the move! As GKP have already done in 2013.

If the bonds get sorted - then a major cloud is removed and the going concern issues disappear for around 10 to 11 months.

Now if you wanted to sp to bounce back and to get the company back on track - then you'd announce bond deal sorted before or on march 25th wouldn't you?

If we enter April with no bond deal in sight - then you can imagine the nerves and sp gyrations.

If that is what 'they' are after - then it's very crooked.

The entire way this process has been handled has been to scare pi's in my opinion.

I wrote a post a while ago about shareholders 'A" and shareholders 'b'.

Shareholder 'B" is being thrown to the wolves while Shareholder 'A' gets the nice low entry point.

Gokana are an example of a 'shareholder A' and pi's are shareholder category b.

I wonder whether Mehmet at genel flogged his 2.3mln shares (£23mln+) with the view to investing in another Kurd player that might be cheap? He does like a good trade - apparently.

A bond deal Rns tomorrow would do wonders to sooth some nerves.

If we enter April with no news, then it's going to test some nerves.

All the best to the real genuine investors.

Those that supported TK and accused those that were trying to help 'as bashers' etc should apologise at the very least.

HUB

The United States welcomes the decision by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to begin oil exports of 100,000 barrels-per-day on April 1 through the Iraqi-Turkey pipeline pursuant to existing export arrangements with the Government of Iraq (GOI). We further welcome the commitment from the KRG to ensure that these exports continue in parallel to ongoing talks towards a framework agreement on the management of the hydrocarbon sector.

The United States urges the joint GOI-KRG committee, comprising experts from the GOI’s Ministry of Oil and the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources, to meet and assess future month-to-month export targets based on technical capacities and in a manner consistent with the Iraqi Constitution.

Regarding the ongoing discussions towards a general framework agreement, the United States notes the progress that has been made in recent months including general principles that would allow for all Iraqis to benefit fairly and equitably from anticipated increases in oil production and export. We will continue to serve as a neutral broker and facilitator to the extent desired by the leadership of both the GOI and the KRG, consistent with our long-term partnership with Iraq as outlined by the Strategic Framework Agreement

By Tom Winnifrith — Friday 21 March 2014

This is not a question that the legions of Gulf Keystone (GKP) shareholders want to consider but they should now accept that this is a possibility – however remote. How they must wish they had followed grossly overpaid CEO Tod Kozel in dumping all their stock last year.

The position of Gulf is not now about fundamentals but about game theory. There are a number of parties involved – let me elaborate.

1. The company. If it does not raise $250 million PDQ via a bond issue it has a problem. As things stand it will go tits up by May such is its cashburn


2. The shareholders. These are a disparate bunch, largely legions of private investors. I am afraid they have a weak hand, indeed no hand in this poker game.


3. The $325 million bond holders. If Gulf runs out of cash they are its largest creditor. For what it is worth, as things stand, they effectively own the company. They must now be bitterly regretting having lent Gulf so much money for a paltry c8.5%. They must be worried that this company goes tits up and will do anything they can to stop that.


4. A potential bidder. I have never believed that a potential bidder would swoop but I will humour the Bulletin Board morons and pretend that, say, Genel is interested.



At this stage the conversation – as I outlined yesterday – is between The Company and its Bond Holders. No new (sane) bond investor is going to want to back Gulf whatever Coupon it offers. So Gulf is telling its existing bond holders “double up or you lose the lot.” My guess is that this is what will happen but the coupon Gulf pays will not be pretty. And that, I suggest, will not be very good for sentiment or the share price.

But there is another possible outcome. Let’s assume that Genel is interested. It need only approach the bond-holders and say “here is your get out of jail card” – do not back this issue, wait for Gulf to breach a covenant and we will buy your binds off you at par. We can then call in the bonds and get the company’s assets for just $325 million without having to pay equity investors a cent.

This is game theory and no-one knows if any bidder would try this on or indeed if there is anyone interested in Gulf’s assets.

My point is that the only players in this game with no cards to play are equity investors and my guess is that either way they will get screwed. The only question is how much they are screwed and it could, under one scenario, be absolute.

EK diary today...

"I have traded Gulf Keystone (GKP) twice on the bull tack in recent days but only for an hour or two on each occasion - and at a profit as it happens since it proved that the market had overreacted to finance raising proposals and declarations. However, the essential truth is that this company could finance itself much more modestly by getting one well going and using the profits from that to finance the second. Given that there is the gathering suspicion that even that policy might in practice yield a negative cashflow one can quite understand that the management have elected to go for broke and raise $100m+ and get it all over and done with. But, on this scenario, the end result remains that Gulf can reasonably be seen as a forthcoming total bust."

Posted the doomsday articles as i believe one should be made aware,however i feel
MOL would snap up Akri Bijeel for $150m+(half of it;s value) which would more than cover GKP. Although looking for$250m,$101m will see them through until end of Jan 2015.

To back uo my thoughts on ABm c/ped this.


Akri Bijeel


Bijell-2 drilling

-- already flowed oil in the Jurassic, Jurassic Bijell‐2 DST2 3,764 – 3,903mMDRKB 3,186 – 3,325mTVDSS flowed up to 1,900 stb/d oil with no water.

Now very close to TD

'-- Bijell-2 well was spud on 13 March 2013, currently drilling the upper Jurassic section. Planned TD is 5330m, will be tested in Q1 2014.'

13/03/14
'Bijell-2, a deep appraisal well targeting the Triassic horizons of the Bijell discovery, is currently drilling 12 1/4 " hole below 4,750 metres in the Kurre Chine Anhydrite formation.'

----------------------------
Mol are to release new figures in April.

If you start talking poker ; GKP hold an ace with the biggest (or just about with a massive oil discovery)...that is a fact...now they need to raise funds for production ....nothing wrong with that...I can't see the problem....it might come in stages that a bank or institution will lend to them upon delivery...stage 1...stage 2...etc....could be that a major oil company steps in with a proposition.....just guesswork......but should funding come and it should...and I would like to think that whoever steps in is not going to regret it and will consider themselves lucky in the long run with such massive oil puddles in Kurdistan just waiting to be extracted....(Iraq is a lot less in the news nowadays...much better).....to me more upside than downside...just the size of the dilution to worry about...but that is required so that this company can prosper....I hope the management gets the banks, institutions,oil companies to compete for this extraordinary discovery that is Shaikan !...

Another question I raises why (as TW points out) would nobody want to lend them capital......?....this (Shaikan) is the largest oil discovery on land (that is) for years.....to me this is way undervalued.as long as capital is forthcoming....and it should be...if I was a bank I would be ringing them now...!....

Are you not a banker rf?

Wish I was Balerboy......the market does not like uncertainty......the quicker this fund raising exercise is realised the better....if and when : I would think that the sp would go up by at least 20p or sp regardless of the dilution.....we just have to hope that it is not a massive dilution.....they do have this new well of theirs as back up....that should help...

iii-cheers

Re: Net Asset Value
investor48 3UP
Hi Jacksalad,

Looking at your calculations:

1.If you use 1billion shares as the total number of shares,then you cannot subtract the debt attributable to the CB's.The CB holders cannot redeem and convert at the same time.

2.Clearly as per the CPR,Shaikan's 2C resouce attributable to GKP is circa 380million barrels.Afren paid circa USD400million for Barda Rash 2C and 3C resource based mainly on one well drilled in 2010. The CPR,however, did not place a value to the 2C because GKP has not finalised the investment required to take GKP's production to 90K barrels per day.The CPR values the 2P at USD6.16 per barrel using a NPV of 10percent.Arbitrarily,I have used a conservative value of USD5 per barrel,a 20percent discount from the USD6.16 per barrel.This will value the 2C resource moving to 2P at circa USD1.90Billion.

3.Hence for Shaikan only,the net asset value to GKP,USD1billion(as per the CPR 2P resource)+USD1.90Billion-USD325million(CB)-USD250million(straight bonds)=USD2.325Billion.Converting this to Sterling/1.66 = 1.4Billion pounds.

4.Total number of shares I am using 910million shares as I have assumed the CB's are redeemed and hence cannot be converted.

5.A very rough net asset value per share is 1.4Billion pounds /910million shares =154p


No value has been given to the 2C resource estimates for SA.As for AB,the CPR gives peanuts 2C to Bijeel and Bakrman at 43million barrels,This 2C value has made MOL furious as it has messed MOL up big time in valueing AB.MOL has publicly said that Kurdistan is a game changer for the company!MOL plans to come out with their own 2P and 2C resource soon.

Most analysis have given a value from 100p to 183p based on the CPR,at this stage of GKP's development.The 100p value was given by Canacord that gave a value of more than 200p for TRP,that has yet to make an oil discovery!!It just shows the credibility of this analyst and I really wonder how he made his bullish assumptions to arrive at more than 200p for TRP!!!

Lots of upside for 2P and 2C resource in Shaikan as it increases it's production to 150K,250K ,etc,etc over time.SA-3 results are important as it could show possible connectivity,meaning a greater Shaikan.

SH-7 will test the Permain anytime soon and this could be a new discovery!!Sometimes I wonder if March 2014 reminds us of May-June 2009 before the SH-1 transformational news.Since no new shares can be issued,the only other way is to endeavour to get some cheap shares from PI's is by creating a fearful investing atmosphere!!At this stage,it is ironic that fear is everywhere that stamped from the CPR and Prospectus that was mandatory for GKP to move to the main board.

Best wishes to all and Good night

25 March 2014



Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")



First Day of Dealings on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange



Further to previous announcements, Gulf Keystone announces that its common shares will today be admitted, with a standard listing, to the Official List of the United Kingdom Listing Authority and to trading on the London Stock Exchange plc's ("LSE") main market for listed securities ("Main Market") (together "Admission"). Dealings in the Company's common shares will commence on the Main Market at 8.00 a.m. GMT and trading in the Company's common shares on the AIM market of the LSE will be cancelled simultaneously.



The Company is not raising any funds or issuing any new common shares in connection with Admission. The Company's TIDM code on the London Stock Exchange will remain 'GKP' and, on Admission, there will be 888,933,057 common shares in issue.



The prospectus, prepared by the Company in connection with the Admission, is available on the Company's website at http://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/documents-for-inspection. It is also available for inspection at the office of Memery Crystal LLP, 44 Southampton Buildings, London, WC2A 1AP, during normal business hours.



Commenting on today's announcement, Simon Murray, Non-Executive Chairman of Gulf Keystone said:



"We are very pleased to be announcing Gulf Keystone's transition from AIM to the Main Market of the LSE today. The move up reflects the considerable success that the Company has enjoyed since its IPO, and marks the end of the move up process involving a lot of hard work by the Company and its advisers. I am grateful to them for all their support in enabling this important event to happen, as indeed I am to our many stakeholders, including the Kurdistan Regional Government, our partners and our shareholders.



From today's Main Market platform, with all the corporate governance expected of a Main Market company, we have a clear plan for continuing to grow and create further value from our world class operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. With an extremely active operational schedule, the expected near term ramp up in production from Shaikan, a constantly improving political backdrop and a strong team in place, we are extremely positive about Gulf Keystone's future."



Enquiries:



Gulf Keystone Petroleum:


+44 (0) 20 7514 1400

Simon Murray, Non-Executive Chairman



Todd Kozel, Chief Executive Officer

Anastasia Vvedenskaya, Investor Relations







Mirabaud Securities LLP


+44 (0) 20 7878 3362

Peter Krens







Bell Pottinger


+44 (0) 20 7861 3232

Mark Antelme / Henry Lerwill





or visit: www.gulfkeystone.com



Notes to Editors:

· Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on exploration in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

· Gulf Keystone Petroleum International (GKPI) holds Production Sharing Contracts for four exploration blocks in Kurdistan, including the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks.

· GKPI is the Operator of the Shaikan Block, which is a major commercial discovery, with a working interest of 75% and is partnered with Kalegran Ltd. (a 100% subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas plc.) and Texas Keystone Inc., which have working interests of 20% and 5% respectively. Texas Keystone Inc. holds its interest in trust for Gulf Keystone, pending transfer of its interest to the Company.

· Gulf Keystone is moving into the large-scale phased development of the Shaikan field targeting 100,000 bopd of production capacity during Phase 1, following the approval of the Shaikan Field Development Plan in June 2013.



Disclaimer



This announcement contains certain forward-looking statements. These statements are made by the Directors in good faith based on the information available to them up to the time of their approval of this announcement but such statements should be treated with caution due to inherent uncertainties, including both economic and business factors, underlying such forward-looking information. This announcement has been prepared solely to provide additional information to shareholders to assess the Group's strategies and the potential for those strategies to succeed. This announcement should not be relied on by any other party or for any other purpose.



This communication and the information contained herein is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States unless they are registered or are exempt from registration. Any public offering of securities to be made in the United States would be made by means of a prospectus that would contain detailed information about the company and its management, as well as financial statements. The company does not intend to register any portion of this offering in the United States or to conduct a public offering in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Any public offering of securities to be made in the United States would be made by means of a prospectus that would contain detailed information about the Company and its management, as well as financial statements. Copies of this communication are not being, and should not be, distributed in or sent into the United States.



This communication is directed only at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended from time to time (the Order) or (iii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2) of the Order or (iv) certified high net worth individuals and certified and self-certified sophisticated investors as described in Articles 48, 50, and 50A respectively of the Order or (v) persons to whom this communication may otherwise be lawfully communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). Any investment activity to which this communication relates will only be available to and will only be engaged with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents.



This communication is distributed in any member state of the European Economic Area which applies Directive 2003/71/EC (this Directive together with any implementing measures in any member state, the Prospectus Directive) only to those persons who are qualified investors for the purposes of the Prospectus Directive in such member state, and such other persons as this document may be addressed on legal grounds, and no person that is not a relevant person or qualified investor may act or rely on this document or any of its contents.



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

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See more at: http://www.malcysblog.com/#sthash.HZhhFxe0.dpuf

http://capitolintelgroup.com/gulf-keystone-mol-does-not-exclude-bidding-for-company-pkn-orlen-not-actively-seeking-deals/

I can see MOL making an offer for AB,as they are the operator,not so sure about the company?

Results end of 2013, due out tomorrow(27th).

ANKARA, March 26 (Reuters) - Turkey is ready to help Iraqi Kurdistan export its oil to world markets once oil storage tanks in the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan are full, Turkey's Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said on Wednesday.
Once the tanks are full and there is an excess amount, "we would like this to be offered to world markets ... on behalf of Iraq," Yildiz said in an interview with Turkey's NTV Television.
"Regardless of the volumes, Iraqis will auction and sell this oil at world market prices. This could be done via Tupras or brokers in other countries," Yildiz added.
Oil flow from the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) pipeline via Turkey started in December and so far around 1.35 million barrels of oil have been stored in tanks at Turkey's southern port of Ceyhan.
The capacity of the three tanks at Ceyhan allocated for Kurdish oil is around 2.5 million barrels.
But exports of Kurdish oil have been held up due to slow progress in talks between the KRG in Arbil and the central government in Baghdad, who are at loggerheads over the payment method and sharing of Iraq's oil revenues.
Baghdad's withholding of funds to punish the Kurds for trying to export oil via the new pipeline has only added to the deadlock.
Looking to break the impasse, the semi-autonomous region last week announced that it will export 100,000 barrels of oil per day through a Baghdad-controlled federal pipeline from April 1.
"As a goodwill gesture the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has offered to make a contribution to Iraqi oil pipeline exports to give the negotiations the maximum chance of success," Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said in a statement.
The oil is to be exported via Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) and the revenues deposited in the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) account in New York.
(Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Orhan Coskun; editing by Jason Neely)

http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/turkey-says-ready-help-export-iraqi-kurdistans-oil-094858924.html

main market as per company forcaste, next one is new well flowing 10 k bopd
making total 20k bopd may 2014