http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Gulf KeystoneShares Dented Ahead Of Move To Official List As CPR Numbers Underwhelm
17 Mar 2014 by Our Oilbarrel Staff

It wasn't perhaps the best preparation for a move from Aim to the official list as Gulf Keystone's first third party audit of its reserves and contingent resources in Kurdistan triggered a 30 per cent fall in the share price in morning trading on last week , before recovering some ground to close down 16.5 per cent at 120.25p.

The reserves audit, a requirement of the move to the Official List, scheduled for the 24th, saw the published reserves for the company's giant Shaikan discovery come in at the lower range of expectations. Analysts said this was down to a lower recovery factor, a signal of the geological complexity in this oil rich part of the world.

Shaikan has been a transformative oil strike for Gulf Keystone: not only is it already in production -although worryingly no money has yet been recovered for its oil sales – but it is one of the biggest discoveries in the world in recent years. And it is only one of four big fields being drilled by the Bermuda-based company: the new reserves audit, undertaken by ERC Equipoise, indicates there are 12.5 billion barrels of gross oil in place and 1.2 billion barrels of combined gross 2P and 2C recoverable reserves and resources across the company's Kurdistan portfolio, which comprises the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks. The bulk of these reserves and resources are based on the Jurassic formation of the Shaikan and Sheikh Adi discoveries, which have seen most of the work to date.

It is the Shaikan numbers that spooked the market, with the CPR attributing gross 2P oil reserves of 299 million barrels – this is based, however, on just the Jurassic and just 26 development wells of the Shaikan FDP Phase 1, less than 25 per cent of the 109 planned for the full field development. The oil in place number for Shaikan of 9.38 billion was lower than earlier estimates of 13.7 billion barrels, largely as the recovery factor was 12 per cent compared to some analyst assumptions of 16 per cent. Those who have followed the company's drilling work in Kurdistan will be aware of the subsurface geology, with wellbores struggling to stay open in rubble sections and the deep wells taking many months to complete. Yet increasingly Gulf Keystone is mastering these challenges and every well unearths more data about the subsurface.

And as Todd Kozel, Gulf Keystone's colourful CEO points out, converting the 2C resources at Shaikan to 2P reserves is a commercial, rather than geological hurdle, which will be driven by approval of the next phase of Shaikan development.Kozel also said the CPR didn't take into account undrilled and untested horizons. “We see a clear route for unlocking the upside to these 2P and 2C numbers through drilling more wells and thus obtaining a better understanding of the oil water contact levels and the actual fracture porosity,” he said.

Operationally, oil volumes are beginning to build. The company is pumping around 10,000 bpd from its first Shaikan production facility (PF-1), which will increase as a recently tied-in third production well, Shaikan-4, makes its contribution. Gulf Keystone is planning to use the associated gas stream to fuel PF-1 instead of diesel, which should save around US$400,000 a month. A second production facility PF-2 is being commissioned with two more wells due onstream in Q2 as it begins to build towards production of 40,000 bpd.

To hit this target it needs to reconfigure gas injector Shaikan-8 into a fourth producer tied into PF-1, tie-in the still-drilling deep exploration well Shaikan-7 to become fifth producing well at PF-1, replace tubing on Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3, drill an additional production well near Shaikan10 for connection to PF-2 and install four flow lines in the Shaikan-10 area. That's a busy work schedule and investors will be keen for regular updates to check progress against this inventory of drilling and construction work. This work is essential, not just to satisfy investor expectations but also to deliver the cash flows required to move into the next stage of the Shaikan development, which would add another 60,000 of production capacity. The company is also in talks about a reserves-based debt facility to help with this build out.

i don't like oilbarrel
i used to follow it, and then concluded that it was little more than an advertising or self-promoting site for the companies mentioned

Likewise,however it doesn't make them wrong,so at least worth giving it some consideration.
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The order book was strong at 15.30pm and the share price spike up

Intraday chart
the downtred pattern since the start of the day has now been broken

RE - today's drop to under 100p was a sign of ...... tell you later

........ The spike down early on the morning was a sign of capitulation.
Panicked behavior often causes a capitulation, investors attempt to liquidate their holdings in these circumstances.

Psychological support tested again @ 100p and held. No upside showing at all currently, just sideways trading. I wouldn't be surprised if it closes below 100p at this rate. Traction to progress the company and a management statement is required.

What about you own assesment instead of " copy and paste" from you know where

panto - was it even possible to trade at that notional 96p? .... at best, i think that window only lasted 10/15 minutes at the very start of the day, so not really "capitulation" at all, but prob just a hangover from friday

Where?

From a trusted poster,who often contacts the company.Make of it what you will?


Re. main listing date,i called IR on Friday last, and was told that the company were awaiting the stamping (which i assume means approval) of the prospectus and for the UK listing authority hearing to occur.
Once these bits are in place then the listing will happen.
No time scales given other than the "on or after the 24th" date given in the listing RNS.

Volitile but trading up

hxxp://www.globalcapital.com/article/kkg54b74b08s/gkp-mandates-for-bond

ADD to post191.


This is also what i was told by IR on Friday.
When asking about funding going forward i was referred to EA's comments on the subject at the analyst presentation.
It was made clear however, that listing COULD proceed with the funding situation as it is.


Tim_Kaye - 18 Mar 2014 - 07:23:49 - 345777 of 345792
It isn't a requirement to have funding in place to move to the standard list - it is a requirement to have a clear strategy on how funding will be raised - this is my understanding of the situation having read the LSE Guide to Listing.

I also hope this is correct,but until the KRG cinfirms it i remain doubtful.

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hopefully this is correct...............

Breaking News …Baghdad, Erbil reach agreement over exporting oil, endorsing Budget
Tuesday, 18 March 2014 11:17 | PDF | Print | E-mail
b_280_189_16777215_0___images_idoblog_upload_1853_13809.jpg

Baghdad (AIN) –The Central Government and Kurdistan Region have reached a compromise over exporting the oil and endorsing the Budget.

An informed source stated to All Iraq News Agency (AIN) "KR agreed upon exporting its oil thought SOMO Oil Company where the official announcement of the agreement will be within two days."

"The two sides agreed upon endorsing the General Budget next week after settling the disputes over it," the source concluded. /End/

Read more: http://gkpinvestor.proboards.com/thread/4135/oil-export-compromise-reached#ixzz2wIwwlfEo

119p now.

cynic

re - capitulation

you may call it what you want, that is my understanting on those circunstances and some times is done on the order book by itself to see at what prices the investors are prepare to buy.
It works most of the times, and if so the candlestick is positive for the future, that was the case yesterday and is reflected on the share price movement this morning.

now 121p, moving over last Friday bounce at one time 120p and looking for Thursday 130p

Its quite over here, +18 rise on low volume and no news??

Rising...much better....

panto - capitulation or not - I say not, but it's unimportant - the little chunk I bought back a couple of days ago is now doing very nicely