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NIGER-URANIUM (URU) Undervalued on its KAH assets alone (URU)     

niceonecyril - 20 Feb 2009 11:04

"> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=URU&Si

URU hold 27.68 million shares(16.6%) in Kalahari Minerals(KAH) which hold a large stake in the Aussie company Extract(EXT) the holder of the licence to work the Rossing
South, which have turned out to be one of the largest uranium deposits in the world.
RIO who have the site are investing heavely in both companys and it seems will
make a take over bid in th not to distant future? A couple of posts which give an idea whats what,

Excerpts from the Hanson research note on Jan 29th 2009 relating to company valuation:


For the purpose of our valuation we have used the long term $80/lb price and the current $/� exchange rate of $1.40/�1.00. Other assumptions include:
� Cash � URU currently has �1.4m in cash (1.3p per share) and no debt. We believe that this is enough to fund the company�s activities until July/ Aug 2009

� Kalahari Minerals � The total market capitalisation of Kalahari Minerals is �77.83m. At the current share price of 43.5p, this makes Niger Uranium�s 27.68m shares worth �12.04m or 10.64p per share.

� Henkries project - Niger Uranium has an NPV15% for the project of US$150m before tax. Our own valuation based on the original 3.72Mlbs estimate is US$17.43m after tax. As no resource has been defined we apply a x0.6 discount to NPV, which equates to 4.89p per share for their 74% stake.

o If Niger Uranium can define an 11 Mlbs resource we calculate an NPV of $102.87m after tax or 28.83p per share again at a x0.6 discount for risk. Neither valuation includes any upside for the unsampled Henkries South.

� Niger project - We don�t believe that this is economic as a standalone project at this grade and tonnage. The grades are low but are typical for the region being similar to those at Imouraren and Arlit. However, with Niger Uranium continuing its exploration drilling with two rigs currently on site, the company could increase the tonnage significantly.

o With existing operations in the area including those of Areva and China Nuclear International Uranium Corp., we believe that the most likely scenario is that URU�s Niger project assets will be acquired by an existing producer. The Paladin (ASX:PDN) and Fusion Resources (ASX:FSN) deal in late December 2008 provided an indicated value to resources of US$1.97/resource lb. On this basis and factoring in assumed recoveries and a x0.5 discount due to the perceived risks in Niger, we arrive at a value of �2.35m or 2.1p per share for the Niger project.

� Argentina UrAmerica � This is more difficult to value as it is a private company. However, Niger paid $2.5m and 4,664,306 new shares for its interest which would value the stake at �2.3m or 2.06p per share.
Conclusion

Our total sum of parts value is 20.90p, which does not include any share holder dilution caused by any subsequent fund raisings. It also does not include any upside for Henkries North and South, the Niger exploration or expected upside in the value of the company�s Kalahari minerals stake when the full resource is announced by Extract Resources.

Given KAH's sp increase, the 27.68mln shares is currently worth 17.7p per share (at KAH = 72.5p), which would increase the valuation to 28.02p per share.

And - If they can get the 11 Mlbs resource from Hankries, then this would increase the sp to 51.96p per share.

So currently they are trading at a discount of 12p (or 75%) to the current mid price.


if RIO pay �5/lb of U based on the forsys/forrest deal then KAH holding in EXT would be worth around �300M. URU holding is worth around �45M at this price. by all accounts the grade at Rossing South is high grade and superior to the forsys/forrest U grade so a price equivalent to this deal is not pie in the sky in the slightest. In fact you could argue EXT should be asking more for its Rossing South asset


Right, here's what I reckon is going on.

EML is Dattels & Mellon's vehicle, aligned with URU (which they also have interests in).

There is a big battle on at EXT right now, to determine the Board composition. Whoever gains contol of EXT's Board will do the final negotiating with RIO (or a.n.other, e.g. Areva, Chinese, Russians - all may be interested, I understand) concerning either a sale or a JV to exploit Rossing South.

With over 40% of EXT's votes, KAH's votes are crucial in determining the outcome of that battle... so, whoever controls KAH effectively controls EXT. At present, IMV Dattels, Mellon & co control KAH via URU and EML. ISTM, from his statements and past actions, that Hohnen has aligned himself with them. When he said on Tuesday "Clearly certain Kalahari shareholders voiced the same concerns when they refused to endorse the potential merger between Extract and Kalahari over concerns that Rio Tinto could emerge with a controlling interest.", that's who the "certain shareholders" are. RIO are trying to dilute that control by buying KAH shares themselves. EML's move is a fightback to retain/strengthen Dattels, Mellon & co's position.

From RIO & Dattels' POV (and mine :0)) these shares are still cheap, so they don't mind paying up now to reinforce their positions for the endgame.

The last posts were c&p, from very capable investors.

A quick way to value URU's holdings in KAH is multiply its SP by 24.4%

http://www.freesharedata.com/eml


cyril

lelael - 06 Aug 2009 10:37 - 49 of 115

This one does test your patience, keep the posts coming Cyril, its nice to know what your shares should be worth, thanks.

niceonecyril - 14 Aug 2009 14:27 - 50 of 115

;ooks like our patience is being rewarded, 31.25p up over 7% to an all time high.
cyril

lelael - 14 Aug 2009 15:02 - 51 of 115

Yes, good to get to 30+, hope it doesn't drop back, KAH etc seem to all be going up so can only be good for URU.

lelael - 14 Aug 2009 15:21 - 52 of 115

2 x 65000 buys gone through, could go up a bit more today yet.

lelael - 24 Aug 2009 13:49 - 53 of 115

on the move again today, nothing's changed, it's just worth a lot more than this.

niceonecyril - 25 Aug 2009 09:29 - 54 of 115

Yes motoring at last after testing ones patience,but fundinentals stood us in good stead. The recent hike as come on the back of EXT,up from A$8.13/9.73 a rise of
20%. Couple that with the discount against KAH,which in turn is discounted and as you stated a kot more to come..
With EXT due more resource figurs we could see A$10(9.9high) tested soon,
A$15 has been mentioned. Once URU's own projects and other interests come to
the fore,it'll be a question of how high?
aimho
cyril

lelael - 25 Aug 2009 09:52 - 55 of 115

Hopefully security issues with Niger's own projects have been resolved, and the EXT figures soon, this could double from here very soon.

lelael - 25 Aug 2009 17:08 - 56 of 115

20% up this week so far.

niceonecyril - 25 Aug 2009 17:40 - 57 of 115

A great days trading.
For holders of the3 shares invovled, thats URU,KAH and EML i've added to the lheader post, a link to the relative values. Handy for quick refer.
cyril

niceonecyril - 31 Aug 2009 09:51 - 58 of 115

EXT break A$10,on the news of a 3rd Zone which ahs given outstsanding resukts,http://www.freesharedata.com/eml
cyril

niceonecyril - 04 Sep 2009 09:52 - 59 of 115

URU's relentless rise continues and it still trades at 8p discount to its KAH's holding,but a great whopping 17p to EXT.All this and so many other
assets including our own Uranium project,Henkries.
cyril

niceonecyril - 08 Sep 2009 09:29 - 60 of 115

Testing the 40p barrier,this sjow but steady climb is most encouragibg.
cyril

niceonecyril - 10 Sep 2009 10:26 - 61 of 115

URU trading over 30% discount to EXT,against 14% for KAH.Could brake into the 40's today?
http://www.freesharedata.com/eml
cyril

lelael - 10 Sep 2009 11:45 - 62 of 115

still holding, still reading the post's, thanks Cyril, certainly a lovely chart pattern.

niceonecyril - 14 Sep 2009 09:37 - 63 of 115

EXT finished up A$10.71 an all time high. From sharedata we're discounted to over 27%and 38% for KAH/EXT respectively,looks a top up opportunity?
cyril

niceonecyril - 22 Sep 2009 11:45 - 64 of 115

Results have iust been released?
cyril

chakli - 09 Oct 2009 01:25 - 65 of 115

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Niger Uranium calls off acquisition of Henkries project in South Africa

Niger Uranium Ltd (AIM: URU) said it has called off the deal to acquire private company URU Henkries Ltd after South Africas Minister of Mineral Resources did not clear the deal by the agreed deadline.

The company in September 2008 announced the share purchase agreement which would have given it a 74 percent interest in the Henkries uranium project located in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. It did not give a reason why the approval was not given.

The cash amount of US$1.75 million paid into an escrow account last year will be returned, and the 8.5 million Niger Uranium ordinary shares will be sold on the open market and the proceeds will go to Niger Uranium.

Following the termination of the Henkries acquisition, the company's substantial interests will continue to be its 13.2 percent stake in Kalahari Minerals PLC (AIM: KAH), its 20.89 percent holding in UrAmerica PLC in South America and its uranium prospecting licences in Niger.

Kalahari has a portfolio of uranium, copper and base metal interests in Namibia, and holds a 40 percent stake in Extract Resources Ltd (TSX, ASX: EXT) which controls the Husab project in Namibia and its Rossing South uranium deposit.

UrAmerica is a private junior uranium mining company engaged in the identification, acquisition and exploration of high-quality assets in Latin America, particularly Argentina, Paraguay and Colombia.

Niger Uranium holds eight prospecting licenses in Niger, covering a total area of 6,773 square kilometres.


Register here to be notified of future Niger Uranium articles.
found in proactive investor article -

chakli - 09 Oct 2009 01:25 - 66 of 115

above info is it a sell now short term? niceone cyril

niceonecyril - 09 Oct 2009 09:37 - 67 of 115

EXT up and KAH too @ 205p, this makes URU @34.5p real cheap and is now at almost 40% discount to EXT,against KAH's 10%. I believe a good chance to top up as i did yesterday?
aimho
cyril

Clive H - 10 Oct 2009 19:24 - 68 of 115

Cyril,
I was looking at this prior to your mention (in reply to my note) on the SKR board but as it had already moved up 9% from your price a/m (Friday close shows mid price increase of 3p to 37.5p) I thought that perhaps I had missed the boat so to speak..??
Do you consider this still has legs and why do you think it jumped following the news about failure of the Henkries acquisition mentioned by chaki above..??
Surely a failure of any planned acquisition would normally be seen as a negative piece of news..??
Clive
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