">

URU hold 27.68 million shares(16.6%) in Kalahari Minerals(KAH) which hold a large stake in the Aussie company Extract(EXT) the holder of the licence to work the Rossing
South, which have turned out to be one of the largest uranium deposits in the world.
RIO who have the site are investing heavely in both companys and it seems will
make a take over bid in th not to distant future? A couple of posts which give an idea whats what,

Excerpts from the Hanson research note on Jan 29th 2009 relating to company valuation:


For the purpose of our valuation we have used the long term $80/lb price and the current $/� exchange rate of $1.40/�1.00. Other assumptions include:
� Cash � URU currently has �1.4m in cash (1.3p per share) and no debt. We believe that this is enough to fund the company�s activities until July/ Aug 2009

� Kalahari Minerals � The total market capitalisation of Kalahari Minerals is �77.83m. At the current share price of 43.5p, this makes Niger Uranium�s 27.68m shares worth �12.04m or 10.64p per share.

� Henkries project - Niger Uranium has an NPV15% for the project of US$150m before tax. Our own valuation based on the original 3.72Mlbs estimate is US$17.43m after tax. As no resource has been defined we apply a x0.6 discount to NPV, which equates to 4.89p per share for their 74% stake.

o If Niger Uranium can define an 11 Mlbs resource we calculate an NPV of $102.87m after tax or 28.83p per share again at a x0.6 discount for risk. Neither valuation includes any upside for the unsampled Henkries South.

� Niger project - We don�t believe that this is economic as a standalone project at this grade and tonnage. The grades are low but are typical for the region being similar to those at Imouraren and Arlit. However, with Niger Uranium continuing its exploration drilling with two rigs currently on site, the company could increase the tonnage significantly.

o With existing operations in the area including those of Areva and China Nuclear International Uranium Corp., we believe that the most likely scenario is that URU�s Niger project assets will be acquired by an existing producer. The Paladin (ASX:PDN) and Fusion Resources (ASX:FSN) deal in late December 2008 provided an indicated value to resources of US$1.97/resource lb. On this basis and factoring in assumed recoveries and a x0.5 discount due to the perceived risks in Niger, we arrive at a value of �2.35m or 2.1p per share for the Niger project.

� Argentina UrAmerica � This is more difficult to value as it is a private company. However, Niger paid $2.5m and 4,664,306 new shares for its interest which would value the stake at �2.3m or 2.06p per share.
Conclusion

Our total sum of parts value is 20.90p, which does not include any share holder dilution caused by any subsequent fund raisings. It also does not include any upside for Henkries North and South, the Niger exploration or expected upside in the value of the company�s Kalahari minerals stake when the full resource is announced by Extract Resources.

Given KAH's sp increase, the 27.68mln shares is currently worth 17.7p per share (at KAH = 72.5p), which would increase the valuation to 28.02p per share.

And - If they can get the 11 Mlbs resource from Hankries, then this would increase the sp to 51.96p per share.

So currently they are trading at a discount of 12p (or 75%) to the current mid price.


if RIO pay �5/lb of U based on the forsys/forrest deal then KAH holding in EXT would be worth around �300M. URU holding is worth around �45M at this price. by all accounts the grade at Rossing South is high grade and superior to the forsys/forrest U grade so a price equivalent to this deal is not pie in the sky in the slightest. In fact you could argue EXT should be asking more for its Rossing South asset


Right, here's what I reckon is going on.

EML is Dattels & Mellon's vehicle, aligned with URU (which they also have interests in).

There is a big battle on at EXT right now, to determine the Board composition. Whoever gains contol of EXT's Board will do the final negotiating with RIO (or a.n.other, e.g. Areva, Chinese, Russians - all may be interested, I understand) concerning either a sale or a JV to exploit Rossing South.

With over 40% of EXT's votes, KAH's votes are crucial in determining the outcome of that battle... so, whoever controls KAH effectively controls EXT. At present, IMV Dattels, Mellon & co control KAH via URU and EML. ISTM, from his statements and past actions, that Hohnen has aligned himself with them. When he said on Tuesday "Clearly certain Kalahari shareholders voiced the same concerns when they refused to endorse the potential merger between Extract and Kalahari over concerns that Rio Tinto could emerge with a controlling interest.", that's who the "certain shareholders" are. RIO are trying to dilute that control by buying KAH shares themselves. EML's move is a fightback to retain/strengthen Dattels, Mellon & co's position.

From RIO & Dattels' POV (and mine :0)) these shares are still cheap, so they don't mind paying up now to reinforce their positions for the endgame.

The last posts were c&p, from very capable investors.

A quick way to value URU's holdings in KAH is multiply its SP by 24.4%

http://www.freesharedata.com/eml


cyril

URU trading over 30% discount to EXT,against 14% for KAH.Could brake into the 40's today?
http://www.freesharedata.com/eml
cyril

still holding, still reading the post's, thanks Cyril, certainly a lovely chart pattern.

EXT finished up A$10.71 an all time high. From sharedata we're discounted to over 27%and 38% for KAH/EXT respectively,looks a top up opportunity?
cyril

Results have iust been released?
cyril

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Niger Uranium calls off acquisition of Henkries project in South Africa

Niger Uranium Ltd (AIM: URU) said it has called off the deal to acquire private company URU Henkries Ltd after South Africas Minister of Mineral Resources did not clear the deal by the agreed deadline.

The company in September 2008 announced the share purchase agreement which would have given it a 74 percent interest in the Henkries uranium project located in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. It did not give a reason why the approval was not given.

The cash amount of US$1.75 million paid into an escrow account last year will be returned, and the 8.5 million Niger Uranium ordinary shares will be sold on the open market and the proceeds will go to Niger Uranium.

Following the termination of the Henkries acquisition, the company's substantial interests will continue to be its 13.2 percent stake in Kalahari Minerals PLC (AIM: KAH), its 20.89 percent holding in UrAmerica PLC in South America and its uranium prospecting licences in Niger.

Kalahari has a portfolio of uranium, copper and base metal interests in Namibia, and holds a 40 percent stake in Extract Resources Ltd (TSX, ASX: EXT) which controls the Husab project in Namibia and its Rossing South uranium deposit.

UrAmerica is a private junior uranium mining company engaged in the identification, acquisition and exploration of high-quality assets in Latin America, particularly Argentina, Paraguay and Colombia.

Niger Uranium holds eight prospecting licenses in Niger, covering a total area of 6,773 square kilometres.


Register here to be notified of future Niger Uranium articles.
found in proactive investor article -

above info is it a sell now short term? niceone cyril

EXT up and KAH too @ 205p, this makes URU @34.5p real cheap and is now at almost 40% discount to EXT,against KAH's 10%. I believe a good chance to top up as i did yesterday?
aimho
cyril

Cyril,
I was looking at this prior to your mention (in reply to my note) on the SKR board but as it had already moved up 9% from your price a/m (Friday close shows mid price increase of 3p to 37.5p) I thought that perhaps I had missed the boat so to speak..??
Do you consider this still has legs and why do you think it jumped following the news about failure of the Henkries acquisition mentioned by chaki above..??
Surely a failure of any planned acquisition would normally be seen as a negative piece of news..??
Clive

Clive, henkries seems to have had little effevt on the SP so $i.75m and the 8.5m URU which is part of the deal wull be returned to us.The 8.5m shares
are to be sold on the open markat so could effect the SP short term?
That said the madket reacted positively so maybe not,myself i will reduce until it pans out.
Long term i see this as still a great buy and with the company stating they intebd to reduce the discount to KAH (not sure how)of which we own 27.68m and that value is still there.
Also worth checking out is the latest KAH news regarding its copper assets,
which is seen by some as a means to clear the way for a take out of its
EXT holdings?
Hope i'm making sence as i have a stinker of a cold.
cyril

Clive in answer to your question,normally i would agree,however the management have seen fit to take the opportunity to get out.They must believe that Niger abd URA offer better prospects and will benifit to the tune of 3m or even 4m from doing so.
As regards to value and timing,we still own 27.68m KAH shares so that more than looks after the SP(check the lead post for sharedata which will give discounts), to which you can add 3m cash min + the 2 projects mentioned.
cyril

Clive in answer to your question,normally i would agree,however the management have seen fit to take the opportunity to get out.They must believe that Niger abd URA offer better prospects and will benifit to the tune of 3m or even 4m from doing so.
As regards to value and timing,we still own 27.68m KAH shares so that more than looks after the SP(check the lead post for sharedata which will give discounts), to which you can add 3m cash min + the 2 projects mentioned.
cyril

Cyril,
It all makes sense despite the stinker of the cold you mention - just one question.
How is the URU discount to the KAH holding calculated..??
Is the the current value of their KAH holding (at KAH's last price) somehow compared against the current URU share price..??
Clive

Clive,take the KAH#s SP times the 27.68m/by URU's shsres in issue
(a rule of thumb,KAH times 0.235,so 2 = 47p)117.5m. Also the discount
for KAH against EXT was(sligjtly higjer now) 40% of the M/Cap, again/
by the number of their shares.
I will check out EXT's SP on the ASX.COM.AU in the morning prior to market opening here, before making any decision?

Here is a post by a Proactiveinvestor.co.uk Author with indepth knowledge
of the mining industry, regarding the KAH story??

Russians
Chinese
Indians...

...Rio
Areva
BHP
Cameco

Take your pick. All keen to secure future U supplies. All would love to own Rossing South or a stake in it. A little healthy competition should work wonders for the eventual outcome.

Areva & the Russians are talking in Namibia this month: http://www.miningweekly.com/article/russian-uranium-miner-armz-eyes-projects-with-cameco-2009-10-01

"ARMZ plans this month to hold talks in Namibia with French state-controlled nuclear reactor maker Areva on uranium projects in Africa, the Russian company's general director, Vadim Zhivov, said last month."


"Rossing major" is now THE prize U asset of the last 20 years:

- Enormous scale
- Good grades
- Easy to mine, opencast
- Mining-friendly jurisdiction

What more could anyone after U ask for? :0)))))))

Looking forward to next week,

Mark

cyril

EXT Trading at A$10.15 up over 9% on high volume.
cyril

EXT has dropped from a high of A$10.2 back to 9.8 with heavy volume,still
over 5% up on the day when the ASX is down.
cyril

Cyril,
I also hold PRL (Polo) who have 21.4m EXT shares (not far short of the URU holding) so I am hoping this goes up today.
Thanks for explaining the discount calculation of URU's EXT holding which on my cal's amount to nearly 50p per URU share (KAH207p x 27.7m shares held = 57.3m / 117.5m URU shares). This being so it seems most odd to me that URU are only priced at 38p which apart from the discount seems to totally ignore the other aspects of the URU business..??
I see today a Polo RNS about thier EXT holding which you no doubt already know of but just in case I copy a part below:
Monday 12 October 2009




Polo Resources Limited

("Polo" or "the Company")

Extract Resources announces a new zone of mineralisation at Rossing South

Polo Resources (PRL), the AIM listed mining company with uranium and coal interests in Africa, Australia, Europe and Asia, is pleased to report that Extract Resources Limited ('Extract'), in which Polo holds 21.4 million shares (ASX:EXT A$9.29/share*), has announced confirmation of a new zone of uranium at Rossing South.

Highlights:

*
A new zone of uranium mineralisation has been discovered on the western limb of the Rossing South antiform.
*
Zones 1 and 2 - Infill drilling continues to return high grade intersections.

Significant mineralisation has been encountered in 2 adjacent RC holes drilled on the western side of the dome structure of Zone 2. It is interpreted to dip shallowly to the west. A diamond drill hole (RDD082) is being drilled to confirm this orientation.


The core recovered so far shows that the banding and boundaries are at low angles to the core axis consistent with a shallow westerly dip; further, the hole has already intersected alaskite containing uranium mineralisation.

The mineralisation discovered to date at Zones 1 and 2 lies predominantly on the eastern limb of the Rossing South antiform.

Chemical assay results not previously reported from recent drilling at Rossing South include:


Neil Herbert, Managing Director of Polo Resources, said:

"Infill drilling on Zone 1 continues as Extract seeks to progress the resource base into the measured and indicated category. We believe a total resource base of 500 mlbs is achievable from targets already defined.


"Meanwhile, the Rossing South exploration programme has further extended the known mineralisation at the project and Extract has now confirmed the discovery of a new high grade zone. These results are very exciting and should add significant further value to the project which is already expected to become one of the world's largest uranium mines."

Happy days,
Clive

Good morning Clive, yes i also own PRL and have posted this am of their thread.Concerning URU,it seems that these type(nursery)accoubts are at a discount,although this is excessive.
If KAH is primed for a buy out, then URU 27.7m shares make it a possible target as a cheap way in?
cyril

Hi Cyril,
I have been trying to but some URU shares but the online broker that I use (Computershare) are unable to provide a firm quote and I never feel comfortable in leaving an order on a queuing basis - I sometimes feel that their commission price of 20 is a bit steep but against that I find their site ivery user friendly and they do upto T20 trades..??
First thing this morning they were offering at a bid price just below that currently on offer (38.5p) - in your experience is this share sometimes hard to trade or is it just the broker I use..??
Off topic I have been checking out AGLD (for my isa) and noticed your Feb comment on that board which has been very quiet since - are you no longer following this and what do you have views on their takeover bid for Solomons.
Clive.

Clive i use 2 brokers, Selftrade for a nominee12.5 +37.5/yearly charge which inckides an ISA and Jarvis for certicated nd trading at 19.5 as they do a T25 which i find very handy.Don't get yo much trouble with either.
I lost interest in AGLD don't know why(proably to many positions)so i cann't comment,will say my gold stock Is CEY which is ISABLE.
cyril

I use the halifax..11.95/trade