Pre-market trading started yesterday (19-05-11), but full market trading to start next week, Tuesday as it now stands (could change). 530p the float price.

Chart to come when I get it, and any other updates/corrections that I happen to spot.

Half-year production report

Aug 14:
Deutsche: Buy -TP 400p
Barclays: Overweight
Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP 380p

Aug 13:
Investec; Hold - TP: 360p
Liberum: Hold - TP: 300p

Possible cash return
Now repeated in FT.

Results Wed 20 August

Aug 18:: Nomura: Neutral; Deutsche: Buy - TP retained: 400p.

Half-year results

20 Aug: Liberum retains 300p TP.

Aug 21: Deutsche: Buy - TP: 400p; Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP: 380p

H1 xd 3 Sept - payday 19 Sept - 6cents

Aug 31: Jefferies: Buy - TP: 430p

Sept 3:
Jefferies: Buy - TP: 430p
Investec: Add - TP: 380p
Deutsche: Buy - TP: 400p

Lonmin stake to be sold

CEO disnisses bid talk for Anglo American.

Sept 8: Exane BNP: Outperform - TP: 460p

SP falls on Glencore/London Mining dispute

Sept 23: Liberum: Hold - TP: 300p

Sept 30:

Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP: 380p
Deutsche Bank : Buy - TP: 414p
Goldman Sachs: Neutral - TP: 325p
Barclays: Overweight - TP: 420p

Glencore suspends Zambia copper projects

Glencore merger rejected by Rio

Oct 7:
JP Morgan: Neutral - TP: 370p
Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP: 380p
Exane BNP... Outperform - TP: 460p
Deutsche Bank: Buy - TP: N/A
Jefferies: Buy - TP: 430p
Citigroup: Buy - TP: 390p

Nomura note:
"After several years of weakening fundamentals for seaborne thermal coal markets, we believe markets are entering a new phase of modestly rebalancing. Major mine expansions in Australia are set to conclude over the next year and new impediments on Indonesian exports could tighten the supply side. On the demand side, we expect Indian economic reforms to push the country to increase thermal coal imports nearly 60% by CY18, leapfrogging China as the largest seaborne importer. However, with Chinese government initiatives to cut domestic mined output unlikely to be successful in the long run, and with thermal coal power generation additions set to diminish, we do not expect the country’s thermal coal deficit to significantly widen.
Marginal cost support falling; lowering near- and medium-term Newcastle thermal coal price forecasts, long-run forecast cut to USD 80/t. Nevertheless, we doubt that miners will be able to retake meaningful pricing power in any market rebalancing. China’s marginal dependence on imports and practical difficulty in Indian utilities’ to fully pass through higher imported coal costs in the form of higher power tariffs will likely keep prices low or lead to significant demand destruction for imported thermal coal, in our view.
Additionally, the rapid declines in many coal producing countries’ currencies continues to depress marginal cost support for the industry. We estimate that the 90th percentile of the seaborne cost curve has fallen by ~12% to cUSD 80/tonne since 2012. Therefore, we downgrade our Newcastle price forecasts over the next three years by ~17% (~13% below consensus) and our long-run price forecast to USD 80/tonne from USD 90/tonne previously.
RUB weakness compressing margins for Australian producers Furthermore, the particular weakness of the Russian rouble further threatens marginal cost support, as Siberian exporters represent the marginal producers in the seaborne market. This stands an acute risk for the next major country down on the curve, Australia, as at spot FX rates we estimate there is only a USD ~3/tonne difference between the two countries’ average cost positions. Thus, continued RUB weakness will likely threaten further margin compression for Australian thermal coal producers.
Glencore most exposed; downgrade to Reduce, TP 300p Glencore (GLEN) stands out as the most exposed to thermal coal among the global diversified miners, with a 10% change in thermal coal prices affecting CY15 EPS by 13%, on our estimates. Additionally, we expect the potential return for a bid for RIO will likely remain an overhang in the near term and could diminish the market’s hopes for cash returns. We have cut our GLEN CY15-16 EPS forecasts by ~21% and now sit ~19% below consensus. Therefore, we downgrade GLEN to Reduce from Neutral and cut our TP to 300p from 330p. We remain cautious on the European mining space."

Dec 11:

Credit Suisse: Neutral - TP: 380p
Canaccord: Buy - TP: 390p
Citigroup: Buy - TP: 390p
JP Morgan: Neutral - TP: 350p
Jefferies: Buy - TP: 375p
Deutsche Bank: Buy - TP: 399p

Feb 23; UBS: Buy - TP: 350p (Upgrade)

got out too quick :(