.

Well, if private investors have been selling BOR, who has been buying BOR ? Because Selftrade data has BOR in the top ten actual sells BUT not in the top ten actual buys.

http://citywire.co.uk/money/hot-stocks-borders-and-southern-sold-after-share-price-surge/a582983

.

Taking a look at Darwin from when 3D was done in 2009, I would pick up on the following :

Darwin East and Darwin West may be joined - a single mega structure.

Darwin has deeper additional reservoir potential presently not in any calculations - it could be a stacked reservoirs. There could be significant upside potential from the present P50 760 MMBO recoverable barrels figures, if the deeper potential structures come into play.




http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-107/issue-9/exploration-development/south-falkland-basin-prospects-high-graded.html

South Falkland basin prospects high-graded

03/02/2009

Borders & Southern Petroleum PLC has identified three key play fairways and two prioritized prospects from initial review of 1,492 sq km of 3D seismic survey shot in 2008 on its Falkland Islands acreage.

The survey, which covered less than 8% of the company’s licensed area, led to identification of a seismic amplitude-supported Lower Cretaceous play fairway, an Upper Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary structural play fairway, and a Tertiary seismic amplitude-supported play fairway. Multiple prospects have been generated in the fairways.

The company said, “The 3D has revealed plenty of evidence for hydrocarbon generation and migration in the area. This includes a chain of five anticlines with gas hydrates located above the crests or slightly displaced on the asymmetric limb of the folds. Additionally, there are many seismic amplitude anomalies throughout the survey area.”

Borders & Southern is operator with 100% interest in six licenses in the South Falkland basin in the South Atlantic Ocean 150 km southeast of the islands. The frontier licenses are in 200 to 3,000 m of water.

Lower Cretaceous fairway

The Lower Cretaceous play fairway comprises sandstone reservoirs in tilted fault blocks and submarine fans.

The prospects are enhanced by seismic amplitude anomalies that display a strong AVO response that could be indicative of hydrocarbons.


“Our prioritized prospect within this play fairway is the Darwin prospect,” the company said. “ In detail, it comprises two separate tilted fault blocks which may be joined as one large accumulation. This prospect is located updip of a regional migration pathway to a large source kitchen. Downdip of the prospect location, the source rock is modeled to be currently sitting in the oil generation window, and therefore oil is the most likely hydrocarbon phase to be encountered.”

The prospect is structurally robust, partly fault and dip closed. A strong AVO anomaly is associated with the target reservoir that clearly switches off at the bounding faults and at a closing contour on the dipping surface.

The total measured area for the AVO anomalies is 26 sq km. Potential P50 recoverable volumes estimated for the area defined by these AVO anomalies alone are 300 million bbl. However, if the accumulation extends down to the mapped closing contour then the accumulation would be significantly larger.

This prospect also has potentially deeper reservoir targets that fall within structural closure, leading to the possibility of stacked reservoirs.


--------------------------------------

Structural play fairway

The Upper Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary structural play fairway comprises sandstone reservoirs in major structural closures measuring up to 150 sq km.

The company’s prioritized prospect in this play fairway is the Stebbing prospect with 85 sq km of structural closure. The structure is a simple fold with four-way dip closure with a thrust located in its core.

A well-developed gas hydrate lies above the crest of the fold a few hundred meters below the seabed. Potential P50 recoverable reserves for the Upper Cretaceous-Lower Tertiary reservoir are 570 million bbl of oil.

Additional recoverable volumes related to the possibility of stacked reservoirs occur deeper within the structure. If this play fairway is successful, there are numerous robust structural closures within the portfolio that could deliver very large volumes of hydrocarbons, Borders & Southern said.
Tertiary play fairway

The Tertiary seismic amplitude-supported play fairway comprises Tertiary deepwater distributary sandstone reservoirs partly stratigraphically trapped in structural closures.

The play is marked by strong seismic AVO anomalies that could be indicative of hydrocarbons. The play extends over several structural culminations including the Stebbing prospect.

Potential P50 recoverable volumes estimated for the Tertiary reservoirs in the Stebbing structure are 710 million bbl of oil.
Prioritized prospects

Borders & Southern said the Darwin prospect has been prioritized due to its robust structure, its location at a migration focus in the basin, and the strong AVO support.

There are good analogs for this prospect in the Magallanes basin a few hundred kilometres to the west, where reported recoveries are about 6 billion bbl of oil equivalent.

The Stebbing prospect is prioritized due to the ability to test two separate play fairways, strong AVO anomalies at one reservoir level, and the presence of a gas hydrate above the structure.

The Darwin and Stebbing prospects are assessed as having the best chance of success and will be progressed to drill-ready status. Other than sharing the same source rock, they are completely independent, allowing different-aged rocks and different trapping configurations to be tested.

While these two prospects are currently the preferred first tests, the prospect inventory now has significant depth and with additional work alternative prospects may be high-graded, Borders & Southern said.

If success is achieved during the initial drilling program, there is plenty of scope for developing the prospect inventory outside the current 3D area. The mapped play fairways extend outside of the survey area and leads have already been identified.

With the initial interpretation phase completed, it is the directors’ intention to seek partners to help finance drilling. This effort will start in the first quarter of 2009.

I wonder if the sidetrack rumours were mistaken for well deepening.

There was no sidetrack, those rumours were incorrect perhaps, what it was was perhaps a deepening of this well down to test the deeper potential - and perhaps they hit jackpot going deeper ?

This is just the first well.....so it's hit or miss.....overall....I think with another 3 or even 4 wells, I would be surprised if they don't find something somewhere in this vast acreage.....reading through all the above details....you would like to think that this looks very promising indeed....but then so did DES's wells before.....well we shall see....might be some leaks this weekend...

As there is no new news....not too optimistic here.....might not be a rns on monday...operations still on going....FOGL looks the better bet....

Any mention in the press this morning ?

Rf, I see you are doing your headless chicken routine again!!! ;o) As I mentioned before, I recommend you stick to a plan you are comfortable with and take all of the hype & rumour with a large pinch of salt!

Cluck...cluck...yes Harry.....you are probably right....also Stebbing is up next.....months of drilling to come....

I'd prefer a figure near the 150 meters, but 30 meters would also be fine.


........The Springhill Formation is a transgressive fluvial sandstone deposited over relict basement topography. Some 2,500 bopd of 38°API oil was tested from a 60m grossreservoir section of the Springhill Formation in the Calamar X-1 well. The Salmon X-2 well yielded 20mmscfd gas (together with 375 bopd and 630 b/d condensate) on test. In the Malvinas Basin the sandstones of the Springhill Formation are 30-150m thick and in the Hidra Field have porosities of 15-25per cent.and permeabilities of 200-800mD. The Springhill Formation may well extend eastwards into the South Falkland Basin......

or there's nothing there and going deeper in desperation.......just a view no one's willing to put forward.,.

Not very quick off the mark are they, we knew they had gas at Easter.....



http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1021917.ece

BRITAIN’s row with Argentina over the Falklands is set to intensify as results are revealed from the first well drilled to the south of the islands.

Borders & Southern Petroleum, the London-listed explorer, is expected to announce its findings within days. Rockhopper Exploration has struck oil to the north of the islands but Borders & Southern is the first company to drill in the deep waters to the south, which are thought to hold much larger reserves.

The shares surged more than 80% last week amid rumours that it had struck gas. Borders & Southern declined to comment, but a source close to the group said: “They have found gas ... it is great news because this is a totally unexplored province and it indicates that it is a functioning hydrocarbon system.”

Argentina shocked the world last week by nationalising YPF, the country’s biggest oil producer, which was controlled by the Spanish group Repsol. The decision, announced by President Cristina Kirchner, was attacked by Europe and America. Baroness Ashton, the EU foreign affairs chief, is leading plans for retaliatory trade measures.

The Falklands oil campaign will only heighten the tension. Borders & Southern began drilling in January at the first of two wells, about 100 miles southeast of the islands. Falkland Oil & Gas, another London-listed group, will drill two more this summer.

Analysts estimate that the potential reserves could be significantly larger than those to the north of the islands.

Rockhopper estimates its Sea Lion reservoir holds 350m barrels of recoverable oil. Its share price has increased eight-fold to 351p since it made the discovery in 2010, giving it a value of £1 billion. The company is in talks with partners, including Premier Oil, to finance development.

The southern drilling programme is high risk. Neither Borders & Southern nor Falkland Oil & Gas, which drilled a dry hole in 2010, has any assets other than the exploration licences. The more oil and gas that is found, however, the greater the tensions will be with Argentina. It became a net gas importer last year because of falling domestic production.

Falklands oil and gas production could generate nearly $180 billion (£112 billion) in tax and royalties, according to Edison Investment Research.

You must remember, owing to the sheer mega size of the structure gas on its own is commercial for LNG.

You'll also notice the boards were full of "gas" rumours weeks ago, thats not new news, thats old news.

I think you will find that perhaps someone is playing games - we all know they have gas, but it should be gas over oil. (flat spot at Darwin)

The ST article is clever by having the dots after the gas.......... rather than being able to say they have found gas and oil or gas and no oil, it simply says they have found "gas.................." probably meaning they do not know what else they have found so covering their bottoms on any oil and running with the gas rumour - which will be correct as gas is for sure. Enables them bragging rights over being the first to break the news.

I am expecting it to be in those dots that the Sunday Times put in -

"They have found gas "and oil", it is great news because this is a totally unexplored province and it indicates that it is a functioning hydrocarbon system.”

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4271600/British-oil-strike-off-the-Falkland-Islands.html

Brit oil strike

EXCLUSIVE
By DAVID WILLETTS

Published: 34 minutes ago

A HUGE oil discovery has been made in the Falklands, sources claimed last night.

The find, by a British-backed company, could contain up to a BILLION barrels of “black gold” an insider revealed.

The strike, off the Falklands’ southern coast, was made by oil explorer Borders and Southern.

It has been tight-lipped about the discovery — but shares have soared on growing rumours. Borders was unavailable for comment last night but Foreign Office officials refused to deny the news.

The latest find follows a.....................................

Morani on III said last week that The Sun was spot on with their oil find story last week, looks like they could be spot on with this new story running today.

The Sun also broke the news on RKH Sea Lion find.

The Sun is the paper that leads with the news from there............

perhaps we'll discover at least some truth on monday ..... i'm far from convinced that finding gas in those waters will underpin bor's sp as you need ridiculous amounts to make it commercial, although LNG is indeed a power source of the near future .... this is borne out by all the gas that continues to be flared off at wells all around the world

The Sun says oil.

HUGE OIL FIND :)


Should be gas on top and oil down below :) !!

You will note the Sunday Times talks of "last week". And we all knew there was gas at Easter. Nothing in the Times says anything up to date, its a summary of last weeks events/rumours.

The Sun says "last night" - confirming a HUGE oil find.


:)

Darwin unrisked is 1400p according to brokers - so lets take 30% of that value.

So short term 420p with good Darwin news.


Next drill Stebbing unrisked is 2580p - so lets take 30% of that as well = 774p


Stebbing success and Darwin should give circa 1200p a share - 12 pounds.


(Using 30% of the unrisked value allows for dilution but does not reflect the significant upside potential - remember Sea Lion pre-drill was expected to be 170 million recoverable barrels but ended up being 300)

Aren't the sun taking a big risk by somehow confirming a big oil strike.....?...if it turned out different it would reflect badly.....if true however.....it would mean they have some reliable sources....sorry I wrote oik instead of oil just now....perhaps I should have left it......

They have been spot on with RKH stories in the past, The Sun is the only one who seems to know the news in full.

We shall soon find out.