New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

Just to remind you of Dolmen's daily note:

Todays Recommendations
Petroceltic (16p) Algerian upside Stuart Draper
Results preview : With Petroceltic due to report results for the
6 months ended 30/06/04 within the next 10 days, some attention
is soon likely to turn to the recent Isarene Permit
award in Algeria, the announcement of which has to date had
very little effect on the share price, even though it will have
major implications for the companys future direction.
Algerian upside : The Isarene Permit covers over 10,000 square
kms in the prolific Illizi Basin of southern Algeria. It contains
existing reserves of 380 bn cubic feet of gas, as well as possible
reserves of more than 4 trillion cubic feet of gas and of
more than 400m barrels of oil. Being less than 100 kilometres
from a major operating gas infrastructure, will also enable
these reserves to be commercialised at a relatively low cost.
Upcoming drilling : At the end of this month, Petroceltic will
also announce the start of drilling at its Sidi Toui 3 Well in
southern Tunisia. This prospect has the potential to contain
over 400m barrels of recoverable light crude oil within a large
fault block structure. Petroceltic has also identified a second
major prospect close to Sidi Toui, called Oryx, which may be
drilled by the end of this year.
Cash position : Crucially for equity investors, Petroceltic has
no near term funding risk and has cash reserves of c.$15m. In
addition, the company has a small royalty interest in the
Celtic Sea which generates net cashflow of 0.25m per annum.
Healthy scepticism : Following disappointing drilling results
from both Ramco Energy and Providence within the last 12
months, there is now a healthy scepticism towards the sector
from investors. This should help ensure that future drilling
success is even better rewarded by the stock market than
would have been the case without these failures. Drilling operations
and site preparation have already commenced at Sidi
Toui under the supervision of Norwell Ltd., a major Aberdeen
based drilling project management and well control company.
Sector outperformer : While any potential risk adjusted valuation
for Petroceltic is still very subjective, its projects are
lower risk than many oil and gas exploration projects. Given
the current buoyancy of peer valuations in the sector and the
companys strong cash position, with a current market cap of
c.78m, we would continue to rate Petroceltic as a sector outperformer.
Petroceltics share price has risen by 240% since
our BUY note of 23/01/04 : Speculative BUY.

Looks as though the buying price is starting to tick back up. Someone just paid 14.62p. It was 14.45p a minute ago.

You are not alome on this thread grevis2.

I am following your every word.

Thanks for the commentary.

seawallwalker: Good man. Nice to find someone alive and kicking.

Hopefully this is the bottom as far as the falling bid price goes. Cheers for the updates Grevis, hope you didn't need too many Hamlet's to get you through this phase!

Cheers gadvfc: Still enjoying my cigars. Even more so now that I've been able to top up below 15p.

From Oilbarrel.com.

September 17, 2004

Hurricane Ivan The Terrible Whips Oil Markets Into A Frenzy

By Eithne Treanor
_________________________________________________________________________


It was Ivan the Terrible that whipped the oil market into a bit of a frenzy on Monday and the same hurricane continued to wreck havoc all week long with prices hovering in the low 40s. The oil price rebounded Thursday after two days of decline. The close in New York on Thursday was US$44.00. The opening on the floor of The IPE in London on Friday was US$41.05.

More than 13,000 offshore oil workers were evacuated midweek as the hurricane headed towards the Alabama coast. Then along came Jeanne. There are now fears that this new storm picking up wind in the Caribbean will delay tankers on route to the US further. As Ivan showed no mercy in residential and business areas, the oil market breathed a sign of relief as its severe force missed refineries in southern Louisiana. The refineries here are the second biggest in the US and Louisiana is the countrys fifth biggest oil producer. The eastward direction of the hurricane kept oil prices steady. Crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico was down as many platforms were evacuated, but this is at a time when many US refineries close for maintenance thanks to that seasonal decline in demand at the end of the summer driving season. The shut downs, combined with delayed tanker arrivals, will still have an impact in US data for the coming weeks.
Unrest in Iraq continued to dominate the headlines with severe clashes midweek and now the report of three westerners being kidnapped. The three worked for Gulf Services Co., a United Arab Emirates-based construction company. The UN Secretary General Kofi Annan told the BBC on Thursday that he felt the war in Iraq was illegal and not in conformity with the UN charter.

The big oil majors met with OPEC members and leading industry watchers in Vienna after the formal OPEC meeting on Wednesday. BPs Lord Browne told The Financial Times that there was no shortage of oil and that we just have to be willing to look in different regions. He cited areas like Russia, West Africa and the Middle East. He also added that he felt OPEC was in a position to take up the challenge of greater supply. But he also spoke of the need for better cooperation and investment, while paying great attention to rates of return. Access needs to be accompanied by the right business opportunity. This was a sentiment echoed earlier in the week from Thierry Desmarest, the CEO of the French oil company,Total.

From another BB. Anyone care to comment?

PCI in IC today, its says they are already drilling in Tunisia, have they got it wrong, I thought it was not due for another week

I emailed PCI on 1/9 to confirm drillings start date. John Craven confirmed to me end of Sept in his reply to me. Perhaps IC mean that the site is being prepared for drilling? Don't get IC so can't confirm the statement.

gavdfc: Cheers for that.I think IC made a typo error. Just checked PCI's website and no mention of drilling having started. Would expect an RNS next week as we are fast approaching the fourth quarter of September.

IC is generally full of s**t. Dunno why people read it. (IMO, etc)

Still holding and looking to add as they drill unless 13p goes. ;-))

Glad to hear you're still holding Big Al. Take it you don't read IC then!! A thought on why the sp has fallen slightly this week, perhaps Island Expro Group dumping their 1607717 shares for a quick profit? The trading in these shares did start last Monday. Thoughts anyone?

gavdfc - gave up on IC a few years ago. It seemed to be populated by industry trainees with very little knowledge. Have you ever tracked their (or any other) tip? They've got as much chance of picking winners as your average private investor with some reading/analysis IMO.

Al

Al, bought 2 issues this year. In one of them they tipped Bovis as a "strong" buy in April I think at around 6, it subsequently fell pretty rapidly to 5ish. If I remember correctly also, they weren't too keen on PCI. Glad I decided to do my own research and not rely on "tips" in magazines.

Just released:

Petroceltic International PLC
17 September 2004


Amendment #2

NOTIFICATIONS UNDER SECTIONS 67 TO 88 -- IRISH COMPANIES ACT 1990

1. Company in which shares are held: PETROCELTIC INTERNATIONAL PLC

2. Notifiable Interest: ORDINARY SHARES

A FMR Corp
82 Devonshire Street
Boston, MA 02109

Parent holding company of Fidelity Management & Research Company
(FMRCO), investment manager for US mutual funds,(See Schedule A for
listing of Registered Shareholders and their holdings.)

B Fidelity International Limited (FIL)
P.O. BOX HM 670
Hamilton HMCX, Bermuda

Parent holding company for various direct and indirect subsidiaries,
including Fidelity Investment Services Ltd (FISL), investment
manager for various non-US investment companies and institutional
clients. (See Schedule A for listing of Registered Shareholders and
their holdings).

3. The notifiable interests also comprise the notifiable interest of:
Mr Edward C Johnson 3d
82 Devonshire Street
Boston, MA 02109

Principal shareholder of FMR Corp.and Fidelity International Limited.

4. These notifications of disclosable interests constitute separate
notifications of interest in the shares and are combined solely for the
purposes of clarity and efficiency. Nothing herein should be taken to
indicate that FMR Corp. and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, Fidelity
International Limited and its direct and indirect subsidiaries or
Mr Edward C. Johnson 3d act as a group or in concert in respect of the
disclosed interests, or that they are required to submit these
notifications on a joint basis.


5. The disclosable interests arise under section 67 and 77 of the Act,
namely where a person, not being the registered holder, is entitled
to exercise a right conferred by the holding of the shares or to
control the exercise of such rights, respectively.


SCHEDULE A

SECURITY: ...PETROCELTIC INTERNATIONAL PLC Amendment # 2


SHARES HELD MANAGEMENT NOMINEE/REGISTERED
COMPANY NAME

(Ordinary Shares)

16,974,934 FMRCO MELLON BANK
5,831,011 FISL CHASE MANHATTAN BANK LONDON
694,171 FISL BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN LTD LUX
328,427 FIL DEUTSCHE BANK AG, LONDON
10,097,773 FIL HSBC


TOTAL ORDINARY SHARES: 33,926,316

CURRENT OWNERSHIP PERCENTAGE: 6.84%

SHARES IN ISSUE: 496,224,571

CHANGE IN HOLDINGS SINCE
LAST FILING: 1,617,978) ORDINARY SHARES.





This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange


Here's the seller, Fidelity have reduced their holding by 1,617,978 shares overall. Also seem to have been moving the shares around between themselves. HSBC's holding has changed from 5,503,275 to 10,097,773.

Poor week.

Things will get better with this one.

I am holding on till they hit 1 each.

Yours hopefully.

I do like your price targets SWW!

I wonder why they sold at this point when there is a good chance of a rise when drilling starts? Perhaps a good point that selling such a large amount of shares didn't depress the price more.

1 a share is realistic in my fantasy world!

chinapete: If you look more closely at that RNS you will notice that some have actually increased their holdings.

20/7/04 to 17/9/04

Mellon Bank 21,067,934 to 16,974,934

Chase Manhattan Bank, London 7,575,811 to 5,831,011

Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd., LUX 930,228 to 694,171

Deutsche Bank AG London 467,046 to 328,427

HSBC 5,503,275 to 10,097,773

Holdings via Mellon, Chase and Deutsche have decreased, whilst those under Brown Bros and HSBC are up.