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Back on thread - dropping away a bit too quickly at the moment

panic selling?

It will be to do with XEL.

Some people will be selling RKH to cover their margin calls on XEL I do think........... look at that XEL chart.

Shorters hard at work at RKH.

Stock on loan now up to 1.2 million, going to be a lot of shorts closing end of this week ahead of next week news, or on the news if its this week .......

not necessarily

RKH added to Bank of America/Merrill Lynch MidCap 1 list of preferred stocks


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/21/600951/markets-live/


NH but Merrill are pushing Rockhopper

NH Flow test to establish base-case commerciality

We are adding our BUY rated Rockhopper (PO 515p) to the BofAML Europe
MidCap 1 list of preferred stocks. RKH trades at a 58% discount to our 515p NAV,
the largest discount of all E&Ps under coverage. Market concerns surrounding
commerciality of the SeaLion discovery in the Falklands remain despite the recent successful appraisal well. We believe that positive results from the forthcoming flow test of this appraisal should prove market concerns overdone.

Given indications from prior wells and the thick pay encountered in this well (93m vs 53m at the original find), we firmly believe that sustained flow rates of c.4kboe/d are achievable and could even surprise on the upside.

NH Western flank offers significant upside

A further appraisal well located 4.2km to the west of the initial discovery well will follow these ongoing tests. This will be the first well to test the western extension of the field within managements larger mid-case area for the main fan, as well as targeting the lower fan. At prognosis the upper fan is set to thin out to the west and should be offset by the thickening of the lower fan. Whilst clearly riskier, we believe that the western flank well (worth 60p risked, 183p unrisked) could add an extra 50-60mmboe, and move SeaLions resources towards the 155mmboe level from the 80-100mmboe level currently discounted in the shares.

Southern extension another source of potential volumes

Ongoing 3D seismic studies should enable management to determine a high-case
area for the field including any potential southern extension. Early signs provided by neighbouring operators have already indicated a potential southern extension to the SeaLion field although management have been reluctant to be drawn on it.

Fully processed seismic data from the surveys is set to be completed by July,
followed by detailed interpretation of the results and a formal update to the market a few weeks thereafter.

Given ML say that it suggest there could be potential for a surprisingly good flow test result..... :)

Mr P, that doesn't follow at all. They have better press contacts than we do, but at the end of the day it is all still rumour and gossip. If the news turns out to be worse than expected you are going to be a victim of your own spin.

Harry if their expectations are not met it could be back to 40p, alternatively if they are met expect the sp to go north of 500p.... you pays your money and......

I agree h (am holding ARG but not RKH), but the point I was making was that no one is better informed than anyone else. Until RKH issue a RNS everything else is just opinion, some of it better researched than others.

Well, here we are.

For the first time now there is a reasonable chance of news this coming day, not for sure of course, but finally we are entering the period where news is just around the corner.

Personally I would prefer next Monday or Tuesday.

Interesting stock on loan - aka shorts - are now at the same level just before the last good news that propelled us up from 200p levels to 270p levels.

Hopefully its all the same shorters going to get burnt again with some good news :)



.

Shares on loan are not specifically for shorting!

But mostly......

possibly ,nobody knows.

Well, its well known shorters borrow stock and sell it.

That is what shorting is, borrowing stock and selling it.

Posted by Stu over at III :


The next two months are truly pivotal for RKH.

See below for an idea of how quickly Sea Lion could move from 150MM bbl to 400MM+ bbl.




The 150MM bbl figure is based on an area of 22km^2, and includes the main fan only.

RKH will now execture their plans to increase that figure by;

1). Collecting Pressure Transient data to produce a production CPR.

2). Appraise the western P50 region, increasing the areal extent of Sea Lion main from 22km^2 to 36km^2.

3). Appraise Sea Lion lower.

4). Assess seismic data on the Southern extent of the Sea Lion complex.

5). Explore the Northern Lobe, S2 and beyond.


Step 1 is just days away, step 2, 3 and 4 are all 1 month to six weeks away.

Step 5 is later ths year.

RKH are entering into the period where most of the value is going to be added. The team running the company have a strong track record for delivering on the specific task of proving up oilfields for development.

It's a great entry point, either before or after the test, this week or next week.

This test is another step which forms part of a solid process of delivering added value. It's a template the industry recognises, and is proven to work.

Yes there are risks along the way, but the risks are heavily front loaded, once you pass the commercial threshold the risks are reduced by an order of magnitude as the risk of a total loss is gone forever (commercially exploitable oil is always commercially exploited).

RKH are thundering past that threshold, and as demonstrated in the link they can quickly prove they're sitting on an extremely lucrative venture.

In fact the falklands are already attracting attention from industry strategists and business development managers as the number of ITT's and contracts issued continues to climb at break-neck pace.

Everyone has it down as a "growth region".

We are just 3 months from a second drilling rig joining the action.

You see the oil industry wont wait for a cue from the market to declare this commercially viable, commitments are already being made and contracts are being laid down, you have to move first and move fast otherwise you get caught behind or even locked out.

RKH are blazing a trail here, and it's the experience of their team that has allowed them to move this forward with such speed.

Where there is oil once : there probably is more, and in the falklands case the possibility of a massive amount somewhere out there !.

I got oil in my back garden.......but it's where the car stands......is there a parking lot in the falkies??