http://wikisend.com/download/811664/AFC.pdf
MC PEAT & Co Booklet - Page 1
FC Energy aims to become one of the lowest cost generators of electricity on an industrial scale. Its proprietary ‘alkaline fuel cell’ technology is currently undergoing trials that, when successfully onc1uded, should open the route to its commercialisation. We initiate coverage with an 80p TP.
Low cost electricity producer:
AFC Energy’s main focus when developing its fuel cell technology, was to make sure that its ‘system’ could produce electricity on an industrial scale (ie MW class) at a very low cost — such that it would be competitive against mainstream electricity generators which use ‘old fashioned’ technology to turn heat energy (steam) into electricity using ‘engines’ and ‘turbines’ (inherently less efficient processes). We believe that AFC is on track to produce electricity at 4p/kWh (or lower) once commercial volumes are achieved (in FY’16).
Enormous market potential:
The production of electricity at such a cost would generate enormous interest from many industrial sectors. We believe that AFC will initially concentrate its resources to service a few key sectors such as the chlor-alkali market, the waste to energy market, the distributed power market and the Korean market. The provision of a service to just these markets could see AFC installing 3OMW+ of capacity pa in FY’16 onwards.
Pilot production plant:
The company has recently opened a new production facility at its UK HQ to enable it to produce up to 20,000 electrodes pa. This will give the company sufficient capacity to meet its anticipated levels of demand over the next 18 months. We take this as a good signal on the part of management of its confidence in the near term technical and commercial success of its fuel cells.
AkzoNobel trials:
AFC Energy has installed some of its fuel cells for trial purposes into a chlor-alkali plant owned by AkzoNobel in Germany. Many different parameters are currently being tested, including longevity. We believe that the successful conclusion of these tests will send a huge signal to other potential partners to accelerate their commercial discussions with AFC.
I - fantastic value opportunity: Using a DCF based valuation approach (based on our ‘central case’ revenue assumptions) we derive a 12 month ‘fair value’ for the stock of 1 15p (with a WACC of 15%). We have then applied a 30% market discount to arrive at our 12 month Target Price of 80p.