http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/research
All eyes now move to Rockhopper in the Falkland drilling campaign.
The Ocean
Guardian rig spudded the Sea Lion 14/10-B Exploration well last Friday. For the next
30 days, Rockhopper takes over the newsflow cycle in the Falklands. Sea Lion is
thought to have a higher chance of success than Liz and is around 10km away from
the only well from the 1998 campaign that had live oil shows. It is one of two key
targets Rockhopper has identified with 170mmbls best estimate prospective
resource. The other target, Ernest, will be the fourth well to be drilled and in between
Ocean Guardian will drill BHP/FOGLs Toroa prospect.
What we learnt from Liz: A working hydrocarbon system
Ocean Guardians first drilling slot in the Falklands ended in disappointment with
Desire plugging and abandoning the Liz well. This well showed that there is a working
hydrocarbon system over two intervals with oil and gas, with evidence of seals and
more sandstones than originally thought. However, poor reservoir quality ultimately
led to it being abandoned.
Sea Lion a more attractive prospect
While it is tempting to draw the inevitable closeology conclusion, Sea Lion has to be
treated as a different prospect to Liz. Sea Lion is physically the other side of the
North Falklands basin and is a shallower prospect, leading to the possibility that a
better reservoir will be encountered. It is less than 10km away from Shells 14/10-1
well, which was the only well from the 1998 drilling campaign that flowed live oil (27o
API). Based on the modern 3D seismic data Rockhopper collected over the target, it
believes Sea Lion is more prospective than 14/10-1. The CPR also suggested it is
less risky than Liz (23% chance of success versus 17%) and, unlike Liz, the 3D
seismic data shows AVO anomalies indicative of hydrocarbons.
Valuation: Volatility ahead, one way or the other
Sea Lion contributes 86p of our EMV-based value of 140p. A successful appraisal of
Sea Lion could potentially transform its value in our calculations, but over the next
month, we are expecting to see significant share price volatility that is normally
associated with any drilling campaign.