http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Lot's of sell's now , short's selling or money going into BOR , or both ?

Hi Aldwickk,

Although I have not been following the trades on RKH all day, I have noticed that following most sp rising, sp falls quickly follow after being triggered by AT trades.
I doubt that its shorts selling, but could of course be wrong.
I think its just everyone feeling that there can't be many more days/hours without some sort of news.
I am also sure that if there is a tie-up RHK and Anadarko any release will be between
1330 and 1830 hrs BST, so it may still happen today.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/41730/company-snapshot-rockhopper-exploration-supergroup-urals-energy-hambledon-mining-beowulf-rurelec-0000.html

Meanwhile, Rockhopper reported that the new CPR estimates the contingent resources to its Sea Lion and adjacent discoveries at 355.6 million barrels in the 2C category. The assets have a net present value (NPV) of US$4.1 billion net to Rockhopper.

Additionally, the new CPR assigns a 90 percent chance of the Sea Lion field being progressed to successful development with the discoveries adjacent to Sea Lion assigned a 75 percent chance of development.

At last nights close the MKT Cap was £1,073.08.
The CPR puts Nav value mid estimate at £2,489,604,017.48 9 (estimate converted).
So common sense put the true value of Rockhopper at £2,400,000 (estimate), and that is without further discovery post possible valuations.
So a sensible sp should be around 650p to 700p, which is where several analyst were putting the valuation at pre CPR, but based roughly on similar projected figures.

Not an oily, so awaiting for those far more knowledgeable that I, to post.
But the drop does make sense, 'purely' in the fact that punters always expect better that probable/reasonable figures (I know I did).
I have not increased my holdings today, for one simple reason..........No spare cash!

The problem with RKH is now it's a longterm investment....nothing wrong with that but the city like the short term gains....and put their dosh into the speculative ones.....DES is now worthy of a punt....Rockhopper need to get the big boys to help them out.....

"the city like the short term gains"........ I don't think that's correct. Private punters like quick profit and tend to punt the speculative stocks, but many City institutions like steady, well founded investments and are not permitted to trade AIM stocks.

I made that remark as general....that's why some shares rocket....like you say fund managers that at the end of the year have to come up with a positive update and with huge funds of more than a billion pounds of hard earned cash are going to be cautious (if I was one of them I put something into RKH and a punt on FOGL)....

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/fox-davies-capital/9072/hambledon-mining-ferrexpo-providence-resources-beowulf-mining-plus-others-feature-in-fox-davies-newsflash-9072.html

Oil & Gas News

Rockhopper (LON:RKH) - A Little For Bulls and the Bears: First the Bulls. Today's announcement suggests that Sea Lion is commercial, and there is further prospectivity in the immediate area. Now the Bears. However, the fact that GCA has provided 2C contingent resources of 307mm bbl will have come as a disappointment; the 14th September Capital Markets Day suggested 350mm bbl. While we do not believe that the news in itself is too bad as in the end we believe that it evens out, and reserves can also be revised upwards, there may be more damage done by the fact that this is the first technical headwind in an otherwise flawless exploration and appraisal programme. At this stage, we are maintaining our 600p price target and BUY recommendation. In this news:

• 355.6mm bbl net to Rockhopper 2C contingent oil resources attributed to Sea Lion and adjacent discoveries

o Sea Lion 307mm bbl

• Sea Lion and adjacent discoveries estimated to have net to Rockhopper 2C risked NPV10 of US$ 4.1 billion and an unrisked NPV10 of US$ 4.7 billion

Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) - On The (Sea) Lion's Tail: Despite being the first to market,Desire has created more value by being next to Rockhopper than they have through their own work. Life is like that sometimes. The successful drilling of farm-in well 14/15-4a in licence PL004b confirms commerciality of Sea Lion and that Casper, Casper South, and Beverley prospects all have producible hydrocarbons. The Company also shared excerpts of the latest Competent Person's Report which estimates net 2C resource at 116mm boe. This will now be the focus, as investors would be looking for the roadmap for upgrading the resources to the reserves level. In essence, Desire's own exploration programme is somewhat underwritten by the discoveries it shares with Rockhopper. Following this news, we are upgrading our target price to 50p and reiterating our BUY recommendation. In this news:

• Drilling has confirmed the pre-drill interpretation of multiple hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs in the mapped prospects.

• Reservoirs appear to be in pressure communication with common fluid contacts

• Mean estimate contingent oil resources net to Desire of 85mm bbl

• Mean estimate contingent gas resources net to Desire of 178bcf

Looks great for DES .....sp should rise a bit.....

20 Apr ROCKHOPPER... Oriel Securities Buy 371.75 - - Retains
20 Apr ROCKHOPPER... Canaccord Genuity Buy 371.75 677.00 644.00 Reiterates
20 Apr ROCKHOPPER... Merchant Securities Buy 371.75 428.00 428.00 Reiterates
20 Apr ROCKHOPPER... Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy 371.75 830.00 - Retains

A little disappointing there was no announcement of a farmin partner(s).

Hi Halifax,

If the farmer is Anadarko, I feel any news release will need to be whilst both the DOW and the LSE are open or within the rules of LSE, so between 1330 hrs and 1830 hrs BST.
Supposition of course.

Greek.

Looking at this through the eyes of 'Why have people invested in RKH and why do they invest in FI oilies' I come to this conclusion.

Most have invested on a dream that with their money invested at quite a risk, will repay that risk by multiplying there stake several fold.
If they had wanted steady, low risk money they would have gone for FTSE companies the likes of Glaxo, Shell, BP, Capita and similar, instead of chancing AIM minnows with little to no provenance, such as RKH, FOGL, BOR etc.
To me that risky stake to double, triple, quadruple your money dream has come true (at todays sp).
Many are looking at RKH as a done deal without waiting for the farm-in RNS or/and production and are moving to yet another possible dream maker, IE FOGL/BOR.
They are selling out of RKH in order to move to that next money maker, which I suppose is expected.
When the dust (hopefully not down any RKH well) settles, I think investors will look back at RKH and start to realise that the story is only into the first few chapters.
Fogl, Bor and others may end up with as much, if not more oil/gas than Rockhopper, but Rockhopper HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF OIL, the others don't as yet.
So yes, live the dream as they say, but me I want to live the moment.
Any spare money, yes, I will look at increasing my stake in Fogl and may even look at a couple of the other FI oilies, but none of this money will be coming out of Rockhopper.
When will people realise that RKH have been hugely de-risked.

greek reality is FI story has been ramped for years, no oil produced so far and no major farmin to pay for huge development costs if oil is found in commercial quantities, if farmin majors are prepared to commit then oil may come to the surface earliest 2016,but at what cost?

There is no oil field in the world with the same difficulty of production or political situation as the FI field where oil is being left in the ground.
Whatever the cost to production, its the return on investment that matters, and if you believe as I do that the return on the Rockhopper fields will be a good investment to stake then stick with it.
I'm certain we will get that farm-in, although I would proffer a buy out of Sealion leaving RKH to continue as an explorer, not a producer.
As to being ramped for years, that depends how you look at it. While agreeing that figures have been ramped for years, if these field come to fruition that is what matters.

NOTE...........I remember people saying Google and Microsoft were being ramped!

greek as is Apple.

greek - hali is an even more miserable old fart than me

I agree re Apple, but who knows in a few months years.

tuesday will reveal whether or not AAPL is little more than a bubble stock

cynic you are so defensive of your favourites ....AAPL (tax avoidance issues)......TLW (two dry holes,no spaceships etc) bearing in mind your perceived old age isn't time you became more pragmatic?