http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

consensus of whom?
i would not be at all surprised to see gold go above $1000 in due course, but i also warned that $1000 would present quite a hurdle

Consensus of 'Experts, Analysts, Press, Brokers & BB posters'. Most seem to be of the opinion that gold will go over $1000/oz sometime soon (maybe the same people who predicted oil at $200 pb)!
Gold now $893, which could be a good opportunity to pick up stock in those companies which are highly geared to the gold price? (RRS etc)

think Ill short POG tomorrow.

digit .... as you may have noticed, POG sp and bullion price do not necessarily walk hand in hand - be careful

might make more sense to watch for further bullion weakness and BUY a position there

Noticed they were 12% apart at the weekend with ORE wiith a lot of catching up to do.

Gold SP looks like it gone well through first level of support at 925 and taken 918 out. Think the MMs will move this one down tomorrow just to get it in line with ore again if that is the case as of now.

Will check.

Shorts going nicely.

Shares Mag (Dan Coatsworth) highlights the point that gold is traditionally cyclical & therefore, assuming this year is a repeat of last, gold will drop 10-15% between March & June. He concludes by recommending investors temporarily reduce their holdings in companies which are highly geared to the gold price (RRS in particular).
This view is supported by Arbuthnots who have reduced their rating from hold to reduce.

NASTY..

Peter Hambro Mining returned to reduce from neutral by Arbuthnot with target price cut to 440p from 500p.

Front page news on here.

saw that this morning .... reduce/sell calls always seem to have a disproportionate effect to the reverse

Good piece from my old mucker Winnie....

Featured Stock: Gold
Tom Winnifrith writes: THe price has slipped. The price of everything has slipped. But the argument stays the same. Base rates across the globe will stay close to zero for another 18 months. So there is no yield advantage in holding cash rather than gold. And Governments across the globe will be keeping De La Rue in a roaring trade. More bank notes in circulation drives down their real value. God is not making any more gold. I expect $1200 during 2009 and much higher over the next three years.

Cynic re charts other day, on IG if you go to settings you can put in a 200 dma, can play around with a shed load of other stuff, but i haven't the foggiest what half of it is.

I was just having a look at the 10 year gold chart.
Much talk about the fall in gold prices over the first half of the year.
Although it has happened for the last 3 years,it is certainly not a gimmie,especially in this economic climate.

Also,though the gold price is down by $100 . from its high,the uptrend in gold prices beginning about mid October 2008 at about $700. is still intact (only just mind you!)

CP, Indian marriage season coming up in April, only problem is they are skint like everyone else around the world. Tend to find Gold rises when this season kicks off, but from what ive heard from a few indian lads who live by me is that plat and diamonds are now being exchanged and recycling is the name of the game.

Not so sure if we will get this great rally some are thinking of.

Physical demand dwarfs speculative demand % wise, so it could be a bad year all round.

Not a good day for POG. two-thirds of trades were buys,but 48 point fall.
Anybody know why?

cp
shouldnt the question come before the answer?
gold daily is suggesting a H&S top. not completed yet though although looks very threatening.
regards
jkd

cp
;-)
regards
jkd

This is worth a read chaps and more or less in line with what I was saying earlier...

Gold rush could presage crash

Ceri Jones
11.03.09 10:03


The price of gold broke through the magic $1,000 an ounce barrier at the end of February, and although it fell back last week to $907 after investors took profits, the world and his dog are advocating that gold prices will continue to rise over the long-term.

One big driver of demand is gold's perceived value as a hedge against inflation at a time when money supply in the western world is soaring and threatens to shrink the value of currencies in circulation. Last week's move by the Bank of England will amount to 75 billion of easing in the next few months, part of 150 billion sanctioned by the Chancellor, which is equal to some 10% of UK GDP. The US has doubled its money supply in the last seven years, and in Europe it is at a 30-year high.

The other big driver is that new sources of gold are genuinely scarce. The leading gold mining nation, South Africa, has halved its annual output since 1998. The days of finding marble-sized nuggets in California are long gone, with most of the world's remaining gold existing only as traces in difficult regions.

Gold bulls therefore have a lot to support their argument that metal's price will continue to rise - as well as circumstantial evidence such as record withdrawals from banks, runs on supplies of gold coins, record volumes of trade in exchange traded funds and the sheer tangibility of the metal at a time when banking products can seem opaque.

There are two huge flaws in the bull arguments, however. The first is the contention that growth in demand will continue to come from jewellery sales in emerging markets.

Jewellery still accounts for two thirds of all gold demand, with India the world's largest consumer, devouring about one fifth of the world's supply, twice as much as China and the US. It is central to the 10 million weddings that take place in India every year, mostly in April and May, as part of the transactions that take place between families, and this accounts for the regular, annual pattern of price rises early in the year before falling back later in the summer.

This year, however, Indian imports have ground to a standstill. Figures from the Bombay Bullion Association figures reveal that gold imports to India dropped to 1.8 tons in January 2009 against the 18 tons in the same period last year, and fell back to almost zilch in February. Overall, demand for jewellery plummeted by 17% between the third and fourth quarters of 2008, according to the World Gold Council, and this trend will likely intensify in the coming months as the recession deepens.


Paying a high price
The reality is that the combination of high prices and the effects of the credit crunch encourages people to sell precious items they already own, and in many cultures have put aside explicitly as a store of wealth. Less significantly, there are also the beginnings of a trend for Asian upper classes and younger people to switch to diamonds and platinum.

The second flaw in the bull argument is that demand will continue to be driven by investors seeking a safe haven asset. This is not the all-important factor commonly thought, as ten times more of the gold mined is used for jewellery than is hoarded in bars or exchange traded funds.

Demand for gold as an alternative safe investment has anyway probably passed its peak. Fear that the US Government will nationalise some of its largest banks is now receding, and this has manifest itself for example in a slowdown into gold exchange traded funds. The big New York-listed SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) remained static for a fifth consecutive session last week.

The predicament of rival safe havens, notably the Swiss franc and the yen, also conspired to push gold up recently. These currencies traditionally benefit from low interest rates, but as rates have been slashed around the globe, they compare less well with the precious metal.

"Aggressive interest rate cuts around the world have weighed on these currencies, and cut the opportunity cost of purchasing and holding gold," says Fredrik Nerbrand, Head of Global Strategy at HSBC Private Bank. "Also, as Japan and Switzerland have economies that rely heavily on their banking systems, it seems that their defensive qualities appear diminished during this financial crisis where banks have come under pressure, as opposed to an international political crisis, for example."

One of the oddities of the lust for gold is the mistaken belief that it is relatively stable. In fact, it has a similar level of volatility as equities - a 30-day volatility of 20.6% compared with 30% for equities, according to Nerbrand's analysis of the MSCI World Index.

By and large, investors have been waiting for President Obama's financial reforms to deal with the crippled economy, parking money in gold simply until they direct it back into equity markets. The super-wealthy sheikhs and hedge funds will be first to identify better ways of using their cash. The price could then drop dramatically, just as last year oil collapsed from $147 a barrel in July to $40 in November.

Arguably, too, while the fiscal stimuli may be prompting fears of inflation, concern should be focussed on deflation, which will drag gold down. Workers everywhere are accepting reduced working hours and even reduced wages to make firms competitive and ward off redundancies as unemployment rises. Several forward swap markets show expectations of deflation, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week told the Senate that a fall in consumer and producer prices is expected to last a few years.

All this, of course, assumes that the markets and the financial system will recover in the next few years. If that takes decades, then the price may fall back this year, only to resume a long-term upward trend.

Meanwhile, the next few weeks will be well worth watching. The Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya is considered the most auspicious day to buy gold in the Hindu calendar. Anticipation of this day usually nudges up the price, and this year the festival falls on 27 April.

Well thankfully for us gold bulls the fed comes along and conveniently devalues the dollar, through QE and it will continue to have to do so. Eventually repatriation of dollars will slow, foreign investment will begin to weaken the dollar as it flows back out, fiscal stimulus will be too little as strong dollar recently will hurt US exports further weakening currency, more stimulus from helicopter Ben will be needed.

ETF demand is more than offsetting jewelry slow down and China and Russia are hinting at diversification, they are treading a very fine line and will want to be hedging their dollars.

Commodities will increase in dollar terms and inflation fears will hit home. I believe we've seen the bottom at 885 today, got very close to my stop at 880, but thankfully went long at 885 today so very happy.

I expect POG and RRS will shoot up 5-10% over next couple of days, recent bull trend is restored and high may be retested soon.

Re deflation, it can be argued that it has just the same effect on gold sp as it is still percieved as being a better store of value even in a deflationary environment, so when fear is around or inflationary pressures gold will outperform it is the only true money (plus the other precious metals).

I'm piling into POG and RRS tommorrow for a quick buck. You can't inflate the money supply this much and expect solid assets like gold to fall, personally this is a no brainer for me, it might take a few more months before it really takes off but I'm convinced it will.

However the ride is bloody turbulent 90 dollars of movement today, you need a long stop loss if you are playing this

s
it is true what you say. the potential daily h&S top i mentioned earlier seems not to have confirmed. non confirmation can be one of two things, either wrong or delayed. lets wait and see, fortunately i do like to wait for confirmation mostly. sure , i do sometimes try to anticipate and get a head start, but usually and mostly when i do this i find i am invariably proven to be wrong, as i would have been in this instance. it seems it is at present wrong but not yet proven wrong on a delayed basis. anyway im neutral/ bearish but positioned flat but interested to see what happens. my view is more truly bearish/ neutral.
just watching for time being, for techies failed hss often but not always turn into
something else so worth watching for, not many people know that,
regards
jkd