there seems to be some heavy resistance around these level with a lot of potential upside.

I know Big Pharma will probably never reach the dizzy heights it did in the distant past but as regulation and trials cost have increased and medicare budgets reduced life has become harder.For that reason generics seem to have an incredibly easy ride, no research cost just set up a high tech factory, bit of marketing and the dollars roll in. It would seem fairer if the patent should last longer to reflect this distortion

Falcothou,

Fully Agree. The generic problem is hitting Glaxo and other big pharma's hard.
You only have to put Generic drugs into Google to see how big the business is getting. But a Google search also brings up many examples of Generic drugs having to be withdrawn. The figures do not make good reading (to the health of those taking generic drugs). Whilst I appreciate there is always a risk to ALL drugs of a side effect resulting in a withdrawal notice, you only have to look back at history (Thalidomide for example) to see the risks.
Saying that, generic drugs must be by testing standards far behind none generic in safety (unless someone out there can explain to a layman differently).
That google search re Generic drugs, makes scary reading.
I can see that in the not too distant future, such a drug will cause untold damage, then late as usual the powers that be will consider more the safety effect of a drug over cost. Cost appears to be a more important factor in the present climate.
The WHO already has powers that can be bought forward in a World Pandemic. One of these being that they can allow a generic drug to be produced, before the initial drug patent has expired.
Lessons it appears are soon forgot.

re the WHO powers re above. I read this somewhere over the week-end, but can't find it now. Anyone assist.

News just out (But not yet on MoneyAm).

News just out re increase in prescriptions of antiviral (USA).The number of U.S. antiviral retail prescriptions soared to 277,196 for the week that ended May 1, compared with 14,366 for the week that ended April 24, according to pharmaceutical market research company SDI. (Massive increase)
These show, that more than 90 percent of the antiviral prescriptions were dispensed for Tamiflu. About 5 percent were written for GlaxoSmithKline Plc's Relenza, with the rest for older drugs.

This is no doubt one of the reasons for Glaxo poor sp of last few days. Although just released it has been in the media for several days, that Tamiflu sales are far out pacing Relenza.

As per the next few weeks/months...Due to the continuing increase in statements that Tamiflu is having less effect (resistance), no doubt the percentage of sales will have a turnaround effect. According to many articles, the general feeling is that Relenza will take over the lead in sales.

Note... As a test I have contacted 2 drug supply companies. Both have sold out of Relenza with both offering Tamiflu as an alternative. Try it yourself. Shows that Glaxo need to up production asap, which according to another article they are in the process of doing.

Glaxo is only low because it is a defensive and who wants a 8% yield when at the moment but for not much longer, you can make it on a bank share in a morning. Tamiflu does have some nasty side effects e.g. 18 suicides in Japanese adolescents. nausea, vomiting confusion. Pharma are also under attack from counterfeit drugs(organised crime) and they are not going to counterfeit generics because the profit aren't there. I think the government has got it wrong...if this is a mild strain of swine flu people should be queueing up to get infected by it to generate antibodies rather than hiding away, those affected in first batch in 1918 tended to survive the more vicious second strain....

The divi is very solid though. That is one of the reasons I increased my holdings last Friday (not the best timed buy).
I would be looking at banks more if I was not now fully committed to long plays.
I do agree re the comment...should be queueing up to get infected by it to generate antibodies rather than hiding away, those affected in first batch in 1918 tended to survive the more vicious second strain....

I hate to say anything in our governments favour, but the problem all Governments have is dammed if you do dammed if you don't.
If this strain had developed into a more serious strain and the world governments had not 'pressed the button' there would have been hell to play. I feel that for the same reason (they dare not get it wrong) so they can not say anything else but to stay clear of infected people.
But when/if this does come back toward winter (the flu season) with a vengeance, those who have been exposed will no doubt be the best armed to fight it.

Latest re Wellbutrin XL,

Looking at the figures, the sale of Wellbutrin XL looks to be very much in Glaxo's favour. Or am I missing something.

I think 900 would be a good buying oppertunity, as IMHO Swine Flu will return big style this winter with many deaths worldwide.

Recent first quarter results not great, owing primarily to generic competition in the USA, but cash generated from operations still $1.7billion in three months and small increase in dividend helps confidence. I have held for very many years and GSK remains a core long term holding in my PEP/ISA.

p
i have every respect for all your posts.
i do hope you wont mind me suggesting that some growth stocks grow, sort of, well i mean grow old. cant see us getting 2for1 on a regular basis anymore for the long term,
sometimes we need to look for the next Glaxo.
regards
jkd

Morning Jkd,

Could be right, who knows, but I sold out of Reckitt Benckiser 2 years ago thinking the same. Big mistake.
I am looking at Glaxo as the most solid share in my portfolio.

Hi jkd
Agree with greek that you may be right (Jim Slaters "elephants don't gallop"etc) but long term return on my GSK is astounding and whilst they may now be in the "cash cow" stage of their business life they do not yet appear to be heading for decline. I learnt long ago that if you invest in companies with lots of potential, but not yet profitable or cash generative, you need a good spread for the occasional "star" to hopefully make up for all those which will lose you money. Personally I have found it more lucrative to stick to decent proven businesses and try to buy quality at or near the right time ("buy on the bad news, sell on the good" maxim has a lot going for it imo)

Are the FDA none bias.

A 'very' long article so for those interested see http://www.aei.org/outlook/26859

Avandia (Glaxo) is mentioned about 2 para down. Makes you wonder.

Sanofi-Aventis SA of Paris, Baxter International Inc. of Deerfield, Illinois, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc of London are talking with world health authorities about producing shots, the agency said.

Fairly long article, but worth a read.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aUgFPjCFldbw

RNS....GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) today announced that it has agreed to extend its strategic relationship with Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited (Aspen) and to acquire a 16% shareholding in the South African based pharmaceuticals company.

Another string added to Glaxo's strategic collaboration plan.

Cherry picking, grasping the low hanging fruit

Morning Falcothou,

A bit of a mixed metaphor.
Cherry picking.....Taking the pick of the Litter or fruit.
Low hanging fruit.... Is never as sweet or as ripe as the fruit at the top of the tree.

I often mix my metaphors, as it makes life more interesting.

Not having a dig, just thought it humorous (made me smile).

Regards Greek.

May be they are doing a combination, I have now idea about the fundies of the companies they are hoovering up, though pharma seems generally as a sector to be out of favour, so I would hope that they are at some discount. Apologise for the mixed metaphors I confused myself

No prob, as said it made me smile, and as you say they may be doing a bit of both.

Sorry if off thread but another mixed metaphor. 'Honourable Member of Parliament'.

As the WHO have now declared a Pandemic, there is a list of countries that are putting or already have a declared Pandemic plan into operation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8022516.stm

As with most bad situations, it will be a case of money being made by the barrow load. Its an ill wind, etc.
Just one quoted example......The US has a stockpile of 50 million courses of anti-viral drugs and has begun distributing the medication. It will spend $251m to buy 13 million more courses of flu medicine. Multiply this several times and it will show just how many millions of doses will be required, world wide.
Whilst under such measures, drugs under patent can be manufactured by none patent holding companies, no doubt a licence fee is still required to be paid to the patent holding company.
Surprised this has not had more effect on the sp.

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=2828597
SP is rudderless Greek , cable not helping, or California being broke