http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

required field ...They can't test now because FOGL are waiting for the Rig and the test equipment will take a while before it gets to the Falklands...it's a big piece of kit.

Sorry i missed all your comments...had to work. No regrets with my safe move this a.m. well done to those who held on. RF stop griping, whats done is done there will always be another day. Slowly slowly catchy monkey..:))

Let's face it, this is a "feel-good" amid a sea of despair :-
BP woes in US, UK Elections (Arrgh!) - and - Greek revolts.

I cannot imaging this small outfit can really be worth so much- it has to be punter madness.

Once the oil is coming out; it isn't exactly near a decent market....Argentena still thinks all the Falklands belong to them . . . . and this crude will need processing, unless it's particularly light....before it can be put into tankers heading to Europe.

v. Good news for those that believed the Rockhopper story, I recall they were at several Investor shows and if memory serves about 30p.
- This rise is almost a 5-bagger.

Put my ill gotten gains into POG this a.m. at 10.67p now up 30p...lovely. Back to 13 soon..

have a good w/e old son!

you too cyners..

Upgrade to "Buy" from Oriel. Potential 600p is just from a median size Sea Lion find (excludes other potentials) - and its likely very much bigger than that.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE6461W620100507

UPDATE 1-Rockhopper says Falklands oil find high quality

Fri May 7, 2010 4:23pm BST

* Says further testing at Sea Lion gives encouraging results

* Eyes flow test at later date

* Stock up over 50 pct

LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - British oil company Rockhopper Exploration (RKH.L) confirmed its controversial drilling programme near the Falkland Islands has found high quality oil, boosting its shares for a second straight day.

Rockhopper, which initially announced the discovery on Thursday, said fresh data showed the find was a "high quality reservoir interval with very good porosity and permeability".

The data increased the likelihood that the company would return to carry out a flow test, Managing Director Samuel Moody said in a statement on Friday.

Oil exploration in the islands off the coast of South America has sparked protests from Argentina, which claims the British territory.

Shares in Rockhopper were trading up 50 percent at 140 pence a share by 1514 GMT, after more than doubling on Thursday, valuing the company at around 243 million pounds ($375.8 million).

Oriel Securities analyst Richard Rose upgraded his stance on Rockhopper to "buy".

"In the main 25m pay zone permeabilities range from 200-500 Milidarcies with peaks of over 1 Darcy. In layman's terms this indicates a decent quality reservoir," Rose said in a note.

"In addition, no oil/water contact has been encountered, another positive," he added.

While further drilling will be needed to confirm the findings, a commercial discovery based on the current reserve estimates would be worth up to 600 pence a share, Rose said.

API figures should be out Monday or Tuesday from the fluid samples testing. Lets hope its light ;)

My comments would be, firstly RKH is still exploration, they have the Ernest prospect to drill very soon (150M+ barrels potential and a low risk target). They also have two other leads now very much derisked by Sea Lion success. These other two leads are potentially over 250M barrels).

Sea Lion is big - make no mistake. Already they have 53M of net oil pay (double expected) and they have not hit the oil/water contact and need to drill another well as an appraisal later to find that. Therefore there could well be even more millions of barrels there to be found. This could be a half billion barrel find (and remember its 100% owned by RKH and under UK jurisdiction).

If you call it 300M barrels and times by 8 US$ a barrel (I think just 8$ is conservative) then you get over 1.6 Billion pounds just for Sea Lion. Of course its worth a lot more as it moves into production but for now you need an idea and so use a low oil price.

Given this find, the other prospects and the very soon drilling of Ernest then there is no reason why a price double of today would not still be "very cheap".

I have sold DES and brought more RKH - it makes sense to me, very good sense, follow the one who already has a find and is drilling more - the price is under pinned now.

i believe Sealion is named as Discovery Well on the map at the top.
Where is Ernest relative to that?
Frankly I haven't a clue!!

cynic, check the RKH website if you want more details.

An interesting point to consider is "Why were the RKH threads so quiet ?" and "Why are the "big names" not writing about RKH ?"

To understand this you have to go into the Falklands plays a little. The "big boys" liked DES and FOGL. They argued about North (DES) and South (FOGL) but always maintained their stance that DES was bigger and drilling first and if that fails then head on to FOGL, always in general ignoring RKH.

When DES failed lots of people them "wrote off" the North and proclaimed their "earlier posts" that the South was always best for oil and North "its gas" and so they had put their money into FOGL.

So you see you get this "DES or FOGL" situation, one which I and many others exploited buying loads of RKH at 30p to 50p levels.

RKH is now a bit of an upstart and loads of people have been caught out not holding.

It would make me laugh now if FOGL got a duster and after Round 1 only RKH hit oil. The one that the big names all avoided.

Quite funny how this opportunity came around and also explains why there is a want to "not understand and not portray Sea Lion as a wonderful find" in some quarters. Its simply they are mostly in FOGL and DES and missed the boat with RKH.

Thats the essence of it.

Coming back to Rockhopper you have now :

Sea Lion

Proven good porosity which means the rock is filled with plenty of oil (higher porosity means it can hold more oil).

Proven good permeability which is easy to understand as it means oil will flow easily though it to the well bore.

53M of net oil pay, where expectation was circa 28M.

Not hit the "oil/water contact", which means that the structure goes deeper, it could contain even more oil and another well (an appraisal) is needed to find the bottom.

53M of net oil pay along with a deeper structure could mean a figure of half a billion barrels might be the end result.

Its 100% Rockhopper owned.

Rockhopper have the Ernest prospect to drill next (circa 150M barrels target).

They have two other leads being similar to Sea Lion, meaning much derisked now (thats Fox at c144M barrels and Stephens at 106M barrels)

They have other leads on top of that too.


The present price is very cheap IMO, very much so. RKH now is the number one most exciting prospect of the Falklands plays as the North is now proven oil bearing and they have a find under their belt.

Moving forward I would not be surprised if RKH might allow DES to farm into Sea Lion, on the basis that RKH take one of the DES drilling slots to do an appraisal well on Sea Lion later this year, DES pays for that drill and that allows DES to farm in a little to Sea Lion. Perhaps BHP might be interested in RKH now, especially if FOGL has a duster in the South.

I initially went for the DES or FOGL view, it was only after time I got into RKH and viewed it as a good chance...... and now it proves sometimes its best to back the unloved underdog.......... (remember that for the DPL Uganda drill spudding late June)

Lots to consider.

Proselenes whats intresting with Ernest is that it has had two Controlled-
Source Electro Magnetic (CSEM) profiles were acquired across the Ernest Structure.

Prospective STOIIP

Low Estimate (MMbbls) 224 Best Estimate 519 High Estimate 1191 Mean 630

Looks like Aldwickk, Cyners and myself sold at the wrong time, though to us it was the right time at that moment as the stock drifted back almost 20p back to 81p before setting off on another small climb....I'm just kicking myself for selling out too early....I made quite a bit...I won't say how much...but a nice amount....the price of an average car or so....anyway.....thing is where does this go from here sp wise....by my calculations valued at somewhere between 300 to 400 million pounds.....now Gulfkeystone with 2 to 4 billion is only valued at 550 million and that is certain....so, is this getting ahead of itself...?....I would love to get back in at a reasonable price but...if this climbs further on monday morning great for those in but aggghh for me...and I'm not going to buy at 160p or so....shorters will kick in soon...

LOL

Apples and Pears again required field.


GKP have what percentage of those "billions" ? Whats their farm in percentage ?

GKP are working in a high risk area, wars, terrorism etc..

GKP have license issues yet to be resolved.

-----------

RKH own 100% of their find.

RKH are working in UK territorial waters - no risk.

Falklands fiscal regime for oil production is excellent.

RKH have a production license.

OK but it's not billions yet...GKP is and it's not as risky as it was a few years ago in fact Iraq's prodction will start to climb soon...yes there are squabbles...but these will be ironed out....GKP will have probably have at least one half of the production....there is a company that owns one half of GKP...(something to do with a loan)...(not sure about all the details) .....anyway it's the value of RKH.....it's getting hefty...EK shorted this only yesterday .....so I think a spike at 150p followed by retreat to 120p or so....quite possible....

One minor detail, RKH are working in 'disputed territorial waters' & therefore there is risk, regardless of what catogory of risk you think is applicable.

There's going to be a spike for the sp or this is the spike....before next drilling...I would not have sold had they done say a 5000 to 10000 barrels per day test... from my selfish point of view ; I would like the sp to come back down to 100p or so...ok it won't,but 145p is looking high...what with ftse crashing and crude coming down...and a certain EK lurking...

rf we all know EK is not infallible from past mistakes, if the find is tested and shows oil flowing at say 20000 bopd then he will be running for cover. Newspaper coverage of this discovery could push the sp up to 200p quite quickly.

From The Times this morning on Page 65, full text:

Rockhopper Exploration, one of the British companies drilling for oil in the Falkland Islands, jumped 51.5p more to 145p after confirmation that oil it struck this week was of high quality. Westhouse Securities put a "conservative estimate for this find alone of over 300p" on the shares and reassured clients that it could sleep easy with its recommendation that they buy them.

I get the feeling your trying to convince yourself about RKH Proselenes.....not us.