http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

An interesting point to consider is "Why were the RKH threads so quiet ?" and "Why are the "big names" not writing about RKH ?"

To understand this you have to go into the Falklands plays a little. The "big boys" liked DES and FOGL. They argued about North (DES) and South (FOGL) but always maintained their stance that DES was bigger and drilling first and if that fails then head on to FOGL, always in general ignoring RKH.

When DES failed lots of people them "wrote off" the North and proclaimed their "earlier posts" that the South was always best for oil and North "its gas" and so they had put their money into FOGL.

So you see you get this "DES or FOGL" situation, one which I and many others exploited buying loads of RKH at 30p to 50p levels.

RKH is now a bit of an upstart and loads of people have been caught out not holding.

It would make me laugh now if FOGL got a duster and after Round 1 only RKH hit oil. The one that the big names all avoided.

Quite funny how this opportunity came around and also explains why there is a want to "not understand and not portray Sea Lion as a wonderful find" in some quarters. Its simply they are mostly in FOGL and DES and missed the boat with RKH.

Thats the essence of it.

Coming back to Rockhopper you have now :

Sea Lion

Proven good porosity which means the rock is filled with plenty of oil (higher porosity means it can hold more oil).

Proven good permeability which is easy to understand as it means oil will flow easily though it to the well bore.

53M of net oil pay, where expectation was circa 28M.

Not hit the "oil/water contact", which means that the structure goes deeper, it could contain even more oil and another well (an appraisal) is needed to find the bottom.

53M of net oil pay along with a deeper structure could mean a figure of half a billion barrels might be the end result.

Its 100% Rockhopper owned.

Rockhopper have the Ernest prospect to drill next (circa 150M barrels target).

They have two other leads being similar to Sea Lion, meaning much derisked now (thats Fox at c144M barrels and Stephens at 106M barrels)

They have other leads on top of that too.


The present price is very cheap IMO, very much so. RKH now is the number one most exciting prospect of the Falklands plays as the North is now proven oil bearing and they have a find under their belt.

Moving forward I would not be surprised if RKH might allow DES to farm into Sea Lion, on the basis that RKH take one of the DES drilling slots to do an appraisal well on Sea Lion later this year, DES pays for that drill and that allows DES to farm in a little to Sea Lion. Perhaps BHP might be interested in RKH now, especially if FOGL has a duster in the South.

I initially went for the DES or FOGL view, it was only after time I got into RKH and viewed it as a good chance...... and now it proves sometimes its best to back the unloved underdog.......... (remember that for the DPL Uganda drill spudding late June)

Lots to consider.

Proselenes whats intresting with Ernest is that it has had two Controlled-
Source Electro Magnetic (CSEM) profiles were acquired across the Ernest Structure.

Prospective STOIIP

Low Estimate (MMbbls) 224 Best Estimate 519 High Estimate 1191 Mean 630

Looks like Aldwickk, Cyners and myself sold at the wrong time, though to us it was the right time at that moment as the stock drifted back almost 20p back to 81p before setting off on another small climb....I'm just kicking myself for selling out too early....I made quite a bit...I won't say how much...but a nice amount....the price of an average car or so....anyway.....thing is where does this go from here sp wise....by my calculations valued at somewhere between 300 to 400 million pounds.....now Gulfkeystone with 2 to 4 billion is only valued at 550 million and that is certain....so, is this getting ahead of itself...?....I would love to get back in at a reasonable price but...if this climbs further on monday morning great for those in but aggghh for me...and I'm not going to buy at 160p or so....shorters will kick in soon...

LOL

Apples and Pears again required field.


GKP have what percentage of those "billions" ? Whats their farm in percentage ?

GKP are working in a high risk area, wars, terrorism etc..

GKP have license issues yet to be resolved.

-----------

RKH own 100% of their find.

RKH are working in UK territorial waters - no risk.

Falklands fiscal regime for oil production is excellent.

RKH have a production license.

OK but it's not billions yet...GKP is and it's not as risky as it was a few years ago in fact Iraq's prodction will start to climb soon...yes there are squabbles...but these will be ironed out....GKP will have probably have at least one half of the production....there is a company that owns one half of GKP...(something to do with a loan)...(not sure about all the details) .....anyway it's the value of RKH.....it's getting hefty...EK shorted this only yesterday .....so I think a spike at 150p followed by retreat to 120p or so....quite possible....

One minor detail, RKH are working in 'disputed territorial waters' & therefore there is risk, regardless of what catogory of risk you think is applicable.

There's going to be a spike for the sp or this is the spike....before next drilling...I would not have sold had they done say a 5000 to 10000 barrels per day test... from my selfish point of view ; I would like the sp to come back down to 100p or so...ok it won't,but 145p is looking high...what with ftse crashing and crude coming down...and a certain EK lurking...

rf we all know EK is not infallible from past mistakes, if the find is tested and shows oil flowing at say 20000 bopd then he will be running for cover. Newspaper coverage of this discovery could push the sp up to 200p quite quickly.

From The Times this morning on Page 65, full text:

Rockhopper Exploration, one of the British companies drilling for oil in the Falkland Islands, jumped 51.5p more to 145p after confirmation that oil it struck this week was of high quality. Westhouse Securities put a "conservative estimate for this find alone of over 300p" on the shares and reassured clients that it could sleep easy with its recommendation that they buy them.

I get the feeling your trying to convince yourself about RKH Proselenes.....not us.

I need no convincing, holding loads from just over mid 30's.

Not sold one, brought more.

I think those deramping are trying to justify to themselves they made the right decision not to buy, or to sell.

LOL :)

You came up with all sorts of nonsense Balerboy in the past couple of days, which has been a waste of your time. Just buy it and then enjoy the rise..... you make money, thats what we are all here for......... ;)

for all holders i truly hope it delivers and good luck and well done.
i am not a holder. and here it comes,(re post no.807)the BUT," Reassured," "Sleep Easy." that of course depends upon when and at what level the recommendation was made.
read between the lines. i dont know the answer so please dyor.as always just my opinion.
good luck to all.
regards
jkd

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/rockhopper-oils-sea-lion-discovery-reawakens-interest-in-the-south-atlantic/860.html

May 07, 2010

Rockhopper Oils Sea Lion discovery reawakens interest in the South Atlantic

It was the news that followers of the South Atlantic oil and gas story had hoped to hear for years.As the nation went to the polls yesterday, UK explorer Rockhopper Exploration was lifting the lid on a discovery following the drilling of its Sea Lion prospect in the North Falkland Basin.
The company said initial data showed that well 14/10-2 had found oil at intervals across 53 metres, with the oil 25 metres at its thickest point. The well was drilled by the Ocean Guardian rig to a depth of about 3,000 metres.

Investors will breathe a sigh of relief after the disappointment just weeks earlier when Desire Petroleum announced that it had found only poor quality oil in what was the first well to be drilled in the Falklands area in more than a decade.

If that news had dampened some of the wild optimism that has been building in this area for years, then the Sea Lion find certainly made up for it. Rockhopper which owns a 100 per cent stake in the well saw its shares effectively double in value by the end of the day, closing out at 93.50p.But others operating in the region also benefited, with shares up in each of the niche operators plying their trade in the area including Desire, Falklands Oil & Gas and Borders & Southern.

Rockhopper is now planning its next move, collecting additional data and samples before deciding whether to plug and abandon the well or to suspend it for future testing.The companys managing director Sam Moody says it could even drill an appraisal well on the Sea Lion site later on in the current drilling campaign.

We are extremely excited by the results of this well, he said. While we are presently acquiring additional data, current indications are that we have made the first oil discovery in the North Falkland Basin.He added: We will now focus on analysing in more detail the data gathered from the well, in addition to continuing preparations for the drilling of our Ernest prospect later in the year.

Rockhopper, which commenced the Sea Lion well a month ago, was set up in 2004 to pursue offshore exploration in the largely unknown North Falkland Basin, listing on Londons AIM market in 2005.It operates four concession areas alone PL23, PL24, PL32 and PL33, covering 3,800 sq km. It has also farmed into two Desire-run blocks PL003 and PL004.

The confirmation of an oil find is certain to whip up more interest in the area, and will help to re-risk further drilling both by Rockhopper and others.While the magnitude of the Sea Lion find is still uncertain, the discovery proves that there is oil out there. Broker Westhouse Securities puts the pre-drill estimate of mean recoverable resources at 220million barrels of oil.

But the find itself is probably more important than the scale of reserves at this stage. Although there are still many unknowns, including whether the oil will actually flow, Sea Lion will provide real encouragement for all Falklands enthusiasts to continue their work and to receive the backing of investors.

It is also likely to be of huge interest in Argentina too, with the UK-led oil exploration campaign sparking memories of the bitter 1982 Falklands conflict.This row flared again recently with Argentina stating that exploration is being conducted in its offshore territory. In February, its president, Cristina Kirchner, ordered all ships passing through Argentinian waters to obtain permits to do so.

.

m
that wasnt on for long. its ok i aint going to repeat differently. it dont matter to price.it will do what it will do. hope it flies.maybe it already has. i dont know.
good luck to you.
regards
jkd.

The more I read about this exciting discovery the more I'm convinced this will be a spike and pullback at first...later on in the next few weeks...months who knows, but there is not enough to go on just yet...ref halifax..that's the problem...no test, just what kind of oil...heavy, or light...hey guys...don't go by me...I'm hoping to get back in lower...but I'm just saying those with a fantastic profit showing : take it....

DES Market cap 225M and no oil yet.

FOGL Market cap 230M and no oil yet.

RKH Market cap 250M and perhaps now 200M to 300M barrels recoverable nigh on in the bag, with another drill coming on Ernest and two other leads very similar to Sea Lion...much de-risked now.


RKH is the one of the three presently "undervalued". In case you did not see the AT buys were pouring in in the 140's - large large trades. That means the big boys are buying and see lots of upside from 140p levels. If you take it that Sea Lion alone is worth over 300p a share as just "oil in the ground"..... you can perhaps see why.

rf
i dont disagree with you, except to consider taking it in increments using trailing stops.
could end up still holding some or even many if price decides it wants to spike up again and keep going. just my opinion.
regards
jkd

double posting again arrrrrrrr..slow internet

Here is another thought not only have they hit oil and its looks like it is a very large find of more than 200 million barrels plus they have already classed the Johnson prospect drilled with the 14/5-1 well could contain contingent resources of 7.9 Tcf of recoverable gas reserves which is a huge find as well which must also put a value on Rockhopper..its just looking better all the time and am thinking of adding more.

see Johnson prospect on map

Does anyone no how much the gas is worth ?