I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Thanks guys appreciate your thoughts.

Business Financial newswire
"Man Group upped to neutral from sell at UBS, target price raised to 320p from 310p"

UBS Broker note:
"Upgrade to Neutral -
We are upgrading Man to Neutral, from Sell. The upgrade reflects 1) reduced regulatory risk from the CFTC, 2) increased dividend forecasts, as we now expect Man to maintain its 44c DPS in FY10, and 3) recent share price underperformance. Last week, Mans share price fell 12% to underperform the FTSE 100 by 8%. At 313p, Mans shares are yielding 8.6%. Headwinds remain from weak AHL performance

Our upgrade is primarily on valuation grounds, as Man still faces a number of headwinds. The most significant is AHLs on-going poor performance. Last week, AHL fell 3% and is now 12% below its high water mark. AHL troughed at -15% in June, which makes this AHLs slowest ever rebound"

Business Financial Newswire
"Hedge fund manager Man Group reported funds under management (FUM) at end-September of $44bn.

Profit before tax was $302m, 8% above the pre-close estimate after annual fee lock-in at end of September, benefiting from strong end-of-period performance. Diluted earnings per share on total operations was 13.8 cents. Man said it was in a strong financial position with regulatory capital surplus of over $1.6bn, cash balances of $2.1bn and undrawn committed banking facilities of $2.4bn. Interim dividend was maintained at 19.2 cents.

Sales for the period amounted to $5.7bn, with strong private investor sales in Japan, Hong Kong, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America.

Man said there was a significant improvement in private investor and institutional redemption rates, with quarterly institutional redemptions of $0.7bn paid on 1st October compared to redemptions of $1.7bn in Q2 and $3.6bn in Q1.

Man reported funds under management at end-October were broadly unchanged from the previous month. "

Digitallook:
"Better than expected interim figures from Man Group could see some upgrades to those full-year earnings estimates that are at the bottom end of the range, Singer Capital Markets reckons."

Interesting to see what these do after going Ex.divi (paying a juicy 11.89p) tomorrow.

I saw a brief article in the FT last w/e about Brussels looking to impose very strict regulations on hedge funds in the future. Knowing how slow European legislators work, I imagine that won't happen for a while, but raises a few doubts in my mind about the future performance of EMG & others.
As you say, nice divi, so happy to be in them for a while. They seem to do better when the markets are dropping as the revenue from shorting seems to be more impressive than long positions.

Harrycat - Are you still in? Looking at the chart and the positive (God only knows how are why that can be?) jobs report from Us today, the chance of a 'Santa Rally' may yet still be on the cards, I'm tempted to buy, any thoughts? Personally had a good run going long and short:-) Cheers!

I am still in & am about at breakeven, but with the divi.
Still mulling over whether to cut & run, particularly having looked at the stats on the website goldfinger suggested:
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=emg.ls&code=BSTK
Best not to get bogged down with the individual indicators, but the 'average' figures for each period of time are not too encouraging.
As broker target was recently 375p (I think), then I might just lock in 30p profit when it gets close to that & move on.

Harrycat - Thanks for your feedback.

No probs. Don't forget that the barchart website is for active traders who are only using technical analysis.
One other thing that has just occured to me is that Gartmore is soon going to float on the LSE which is going to represent more competition for EMG.

Gartmore offer closes on Wednesday the 9th!

Business Financial Newswire
"Man Group will release its Q3 interim management statement on Friday, 15th January 2010"

Having a wee punt long @ 324.0, tight stop though :o)

Morgan Stanley has cut hedge fund manager Man Group to 'equal weight' from 'overweight' and dropped its price target to 3.40 from 4.

The broker, which also removed Man from its best ideas portfolio, said the downgrade reflects an 18% cut in its FY11e [estimatated full year 2011] EPS [earnings per share] on lower performance fees and reduced sales.

It likes Man's exposure to a number of growth areas - distribution in Asia, capabilities in onshore to complement offshore structured products and benefit from UCITS III Opportunities - but pressures on sales and earnings are not fully reflected in market numbers.

When I heard the above I bottled it and got out quick @ 323.0. May well regret it now, expected it to tank. Some bounce back by the Dow after jobless numbers yesterday!

Am gonna hold for the figures on the 15th. With a rising market I anticipate reasonable figures.

Same for me harry but am bit afraid i got in a bit high, live in hope..

CC
good for you, well done in getting out so quickly and at such a small loss. it dont matter if it now goes up. you absolutely did the best thing. in fact bottling it is great, fronting it out costs a lot more. and not just in monetary terms. timing is all important, and if in doubt get out, and thats what you did, well done to you.what happens next dont matter, you did the right thing.maybe a plan next time might be better, just a suggestion,
regards
jkd

you had onions jkd your repeating......