.

the market is no less liquid than usual and there looks to be rather more activity than of late

Its been pointed out the original Sea Lion RNS came out at 12:10.

Today the SP shot up at 12:10 - shorters closing at an agreed time then ? Just in case.........

BPC down 3%
CAD down 4%
COV down 3%
EO. down 18%
GBP down 3%
HAWK down 8%
NPE down 15%
PET down 7%

RKH down 2.8% - not doing too bad today really.

I am just going to be really interested in the coring results.

The rumours of III are :

Core 1 and Core 2 = dry
Core 3 = Oil shows but core not intact.
Core 4 = Oil through and through.

So it will be interesting to see if they are right or not. Given the rumoured time coring an RNS might be anytime, including next week.

And the implications were that each 30ft core was taken from Sea Lion main fan.

So the implication was Sea Lion Main Fan (S1) had some pay in this P10 location.

But its just BB rumours...... thats all.

and is the implication of above good or bad .... the latter i would have thought, but more than happy to be corrected

Good.

surprised but pleased ..... market hasn't registered same, and have actually reduced holding to 50% of norm ..... if end result is good, then won't make as much but better than being pasted if the reverse

Shorts closing rally into close ?

Good post from III from Master Shanus :

"......Okay from the posts it seems we have oil at 14/10-3 but not the monster find of 14/10-2. If that is true that is fantastic! Here are two diagrams showing the locations of both wells. These are accurate locations taken from the eastings and northings of well sites.
You can see that the position of 14/10-3 is at the top of the northern lobe. The fact that it is charged is veryt good for the northern p[rospectes. There are a few scenarios for the chrging mechanism.

http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?g9c9ac3l6c3lz2q
http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?u42vetypznqtvqb

(1) Charge source is below 14/10-2. 14/10-2 is updip slightly from 14/10-3. You can see the gradient of the contours on the maps show that if a bulge in oil is occuring at 14/10-2 it is pusihing the oil to 14/10-3

(2) Charge source is below 14/10-2 and 14/10-3. This is the likely scenario given what I have read. Although we cannot discount scenario (1). If the charge is below both the probability of the whole fan being charged is high.

The Sealion fan is a complex interconnection of about 6-8 sands with some or all at any time in communication with each other. The fact that we may have charged sands at 14/10-3 means that there will be other places in the sealion fan where the pay gets thicker and thinner.
There is also a distinct possibility that S2 merges with the lower sealion fan in the north. If this is the case then if selaion lower is charged it opens up the prospectively of S2 further north. So the key here is to analyse the cores taken, go back the seisimics and identify with better reservoir conditions and nail down just how much oil there in this fan
I was walking along the coast today and spotted a flock of seagulls in formation. they made the shape of sideways distorted tear drop. It occurred to me that the formation of birdsa assisted druids and soothsayers in making decisions I immediately though that this was the oil distribution in the sealion fan, thick in the south getting thinner in the north. (I actually always thought the net pay would get thinner in the north and there was a high likelihood that the top sealion fan would get thinner and tighter). Now I am not going to get all DV on you... but it made me think about the morpholgy of the field anyway.

So upshot, oil is good, any net pay is good for appraisal of this fan. It will take at least 3-4 more wells drilled on the Sealion fan before they get a grip of exactly where the sweet spots are.

l also note DES can shoot up 50% on a 8m net pay, what can RKH do? The current market cp does not reflect any more than the P50 amount of oil (heavily discounted). They are currently drilling in the P10 area. Identification of any net pay will not make it P10.. but could push the evaluation to somewhere around P30 to P40.....

Saw quite a bit of deramping today and some new abusive/deramping names around the place on different sites, thats indicative of shorting.

But whats more indicative of shorting is where the "stock on loan" figure increases and end of close today the stock on loan figure has gone up, so confirmed there are shorters around now. The figure has been falling and deadline flat, now for the first time in ages its started moving upwards at close today.



.

1 year "shorting" chart - stock on loan



So shorts levels today are very small, its just the type of people who deramp in gangs on BB's and the like, short a couple of hundred K of stock and try to create a collapse by scaring PI's.

They might be right and they might not be, only Sam knows the answer (well and Pierre).

When the city knows of bad news (DES) or placings you will see shorting rise upwards of 2 million shares, in the case of the RKH placing shorts in excess of 11m shares and DES bad news then 3m shares.

Todays level says its short terms shorters playing with sentiment and posting the CMC 12th Feb AIM is going to collapse nonsense all over the place.

You'll know when a leak happens, you will get a quick 10% move in one direction or the other in 30 minutes.

As it stands now - nobody knows anything.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3f93ac14-346f-11e0-9ebc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1DPWQXrYq


".........Rockhopper Exploration was also under pressure. Shares in the Falklands explorer lost 7.7 per cent to 339p as the investors continued to wait for an update on its latest well. However, traders noted that Rockhopper shares fell 29 per cent in the ten days before the company announced a big find at the Sea Lion prospect........"


.

People need to appreciate this and remember the falling share price last time, just before the big discovery.......


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3f93ac14-346f-11e0-9ebc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1DPWQXrYq


".........Rockhopper Exploration was also under pressure. Shares in the Falklands explorer lost 7.7 per cent to 339p as the investors continued to wait for an update on its latest well. However, traders noted that Rockhopper shares fell 29 per cent in the ten days before the company announced a big find at the Sea Lion prospect........"

You can't go by any of that ....it can drop and a discovery can be made ...it can rise and then a negative result could come along.....it just happened that at the time : the chances of them hitting anything commercial were deemed to be very slim by the market......

If there is news tomorrow, it will be likely no so good news.

If there is no news tomorrow EVERYONE will start to expect really great news Mon or Tue of next week.

CMC markets problems for AIM stocks is all over bar the shouting now, going to be an interesting week next week, especially if there is no "poor news" dump on Friday.........

Fingers crossed....they might have encountered hydrocarbons....but uncommercial....but a drop should be a buying opportunity....if we are watching at that time.....

Fingers crossed they have found massive amounts of potential net pay and are now making sure that all the wireline suite confirms this, before announcing this major news to the market....... in just the same way it got released into a 29% drop over the 10 days before Sea Lion discovery RNS came out.........