">
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

Powered by IST's


VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

Morning all. Thanks Jameel for that post - it's nice to get some useful figures.

bonfield ...... i too am sorry that the info re dry wells was denied (apparently by the company) ..... they weren't actually dry etc etc, but still somewhat economic with the truth .... suppose they had little option .....

with regard to attempted (de)reramping, that is dead easy and can be done with any share especially iof the perpetrator does not back his opinion with hard cash! ..... of course, these peeps will crow when they get a right call, but are otherwise very quiet.

I happen to hold BUR as well as VOG so follow the pair of them quite closely ..... To say that VOG is based on hope is, i think, more than a little unfair as there seem to be very (hugely!) significant reserves under their "control", unlike say ELP or even CHP ...... confess i do not know how/when VOG are expected to actually start extracting the stuff, but no doubt some "friends" here could enlighten

Cynic,

That reminds me that I wanted to mention to you the difference between resources and reserves (since you raised an issue related thereto a few weeks back).

As I understand it, resources are the expected volumes of hydrocarbons in a prospect. Resources are an estimate based on seismic and other data.

Resources are converted into reserves when the company has confirmed that hydrocarbons are in place and that they are accessible in such a fashion as to be commercially viable. This means that drilling is required to prove that the stuff is there in the first place. It is also dependent upon the oil price, as obviously a lot more oil is commercially viable if oil goes to $100 than if it slumps back to $25. For this reason, companies will occasionally release a reserves upgrade based on a sustained change in the oil price, as NOP did a couple of weeks ago.

Neither resources nor reserves appear to me to indicate the true amount of hydrocarbons present in the ground, which obviously nobody can ever really know.

VOG has strong resources - i.e. a lot of prospective territory which, according to seismic could, possibly, hopefully, maybe, yield 1 bln bboe.

However, its reserves at West Med are presently nothing much, because reserves depend upon the company successfully locating commercial hydrocarbons, which they obviously did not do at Danniella. VOG has a lot more drilling to do! If the whole area turns out to be uncommercial (perish the thought!), then reserves will be nil, even though a proven resource is in plce which may one day turn out to be commercially viable if prices continue to increase.

Don't be misled by some articles which use the vocabulary interchangeably.

I tried to confirm the difference using the very useful OSHA Glossary of Petroleum Industry Terms

GO THERE

but they only had the definition of reserves.

reserves n pl: the unproduced but recoverable oil or gas in a formation that has been proved by production.


Hope this helps. Any experts out there are welcome to correct me if I've got this wrong.
ST

many thanks for your enlightenment ST

A good example is Dana who discovered a huge gas field in Mauritania in 2003. It now needs further finds of gas by Dana or other oil companies so they can then proceed to extract it commercially.

evening all thank goodness for some leveal headed people hear a-d-v-f-n is bad for any new investers starting out good luck all and for the record i am long vog [hd] jumbo

great post s t [hd]

For all that, and I have no idea what other assets Dana (DNX) may have, the "gas in the ground" seems to be supporting their sp very well ...... Cannot the same be said of VOG and the dive of 33% is vastly overdone, or am I being singularly dumb and naive?

By the way, I think ADVFN is a load of rubbish too ..... signed in there for 10/20 minutes some time back and found it full of (de)rampers and personal abusers (in all senses!) and almost no informative comment

I would also appreciate others opinions as to whether the VOG share price drop has been overdone. It is common in situations like this - I think.

The question is, how much more will it drop before a bounce. The bungy rope must now be tightening.

those with the vog in depth knowledge can you tell me if they have anything planned for the short term?.

morning all agree advfn is a waste of time with most people wasting there time.
i have tried to contact k foo or george thursday and friday both have been busy will try next week iam trying to find out how soon it will take to start extracting the oil might not get an answer.

i too am fed up with the advfn bb,
kemerkol as to be our next news, i dont phone companys much if at all but i felt the need to talk to george on thursday around 5ish, more about kemerkol than anything,
i did ask if we where still on target to reach the 1800 bpd which vog stated in the rns, he said 1500-2000 is still there target, he said they where working on shutin wells and drilling twin wells to up production and news would be released to the market via the correct channels.he was disapointed with the market reaction but understood that the market does not like disapointment and that it was a case of tin hats at the moment.
Tamdykol i dont see as any value at the moment as work had been suspended till a review in august.
if they can issue some positive news on kemerkol very soon then we could move back to 150ish, but the market now will be watching 103 and vog need to get this one right after the mess they made on 104-106 because even till may 15 they where saying an increase in resourses, yet nothing commersal was there.
tony

Copied note from Renaissance may prove of some comfort for beleagured holders


_ Danniella disappointment. Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) said this morning
that it had suspended work at the shallow Danniella prospect at West Medvezhye
after tests at wells 104, 104-Bis, and 106 proved non-commercial. The prospect
held 322 bcf (54mn boe) of contingent resources.
_ Gas deliverability pushed back. VOG will now refocus on deeper
prospects (around 1,500m) that are more homologous with the productive
horizons at Gazproms nearby Medvezhye field. Well 103 will soon test a
structure at this depth, and well 105 is planned for later this year at similar depths
in the northwest corner of the block.
_ Scale of resources largely unchanged. VOG also said today that an
updated DeGolyer & MacNaughton report confirmed 1bn boe of gross resources
for West Medvezhye. D&M had previously estimated that the other 26 identified
structures in the acreage could harbour prospective resources of 5.3 tcf (883mn
boe) of gas and 164mn bbls of liquids. The risked best estimate of these
resources is 1.0 tcf (168mn boe) and 31.5mn bbls.
_ Target price update. Excluding Danniella from the resource base barely
alters VOGs valuation. Based on Novateks 2010 EV/production rating, a
150 bcm prospect from which 4 bcm of gas production might be achieved is worth
an estimated and marked-to-market GBPp374/share today. This allows for the
funding gap to actually get there. Our mini-DCF still indicates that such an outturn
is worth GBPp407/share. The midpoint, GBPp390, is our updated target price, up
from GBPp316 previously, mainly on account of Novateks recent performance.
_ Buy the weakness. While todays share price plunge is a stark reminder of
the risks associated with junior exploration plays, VOG seems to be pricing-in
failure at the current price of GBPp105. This represents around $6.5/bbl for
VOGs 2P oil reserves in Kazakhstan. Hence, the very large gas upside now
comes for free. VOGs EV/resources of $0.20/boe is less than one-fifteenth of
Novateks current EV/reserves multiple, so we see a good risk/reward here.

Good one Cynic. Get 'em while they're cheap :o)

and a further bit from Ambrian ...... I think I'll just stay put .... another bit

Further to yesterday's news and the report which we sent out, Victoria Oil & Gas is currently trading at 95p, which is largely in line with our expectations.

The 25m bbl of existing 2P reserves which are associated with Kemerkol (which we value at 167p), once applied to the NAV multiple of 0.65x gives a value of 108p. Obviously, in light of yesterday's announcement, there will be some discount applied to this price, which explains why the price has been fluctuating between 91p-96p this morning.

What should also be noted is that this price excludes any value for the company's West Medvezhye asset or the C3 reserves (40m bbl - adjusted) for Kemerkol; if one includes these it adds a further 19p and 100p respectively.

Clearly there will be further volatility ahead as the market continues to react to yesterday's news, but we would take courage from the Kemerkol reserves, which are relatively low risk and low cost, and have the potential to be producing 2k-3k bbl by the end of calendar 2006. Whilst the average for the company will be closer to 1.3k by the year end (May 2007), which could generate up to $1.2m per month in revenues.

The exploration focus is now firmly fixed on well 103, with results expected in Q4. Until then we expect the market to be very cautious in its involvement with the stock.

- Anthony Nathan
Ambrian is engaged as corporate broker to this company.
Recommendation - Hold

There should be a few opportunities to add over the coming months, IMO. I notice that strengthening oil prices are at present not having much of an effect, which I guess means that things won't really take off until VOG gets closer to the action predicted for the end of the year.

Couple of useful notes though ....... suspect Ambrian was told to keep the tone very muted

Agreed. It would be a very big disppointment if West Med didn't produce the goods, but I can understand the present mood of caution.

Soul ....... shame you are based in Frankfurt as would be nice to share a bottle of something decent ...... Unfortunately my biz travels only take me to Hamburg and just occasionally Munchen

Dana Petroleum (from Annual Report figures to 31/12/05)

Group Reserves 111.5 mmboe
Contingent Resources 124.3
Total Resources 235.8

Production 2005: 19,683 boepd @ $42.24 per boe
Net Cash 91.8m