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Volume now nearing 5 million, that is into "leak" territory for volume in a day.

not so ..... moving daily average over last 3 months is about 4.3m, so 5m is nothing untoward

cynic, average volume is below 2m shares and indeed below 1.5m many days. Given the recent placing and fun over Darwin with tens of millions of shares traded for many days, it has skewed the 3 month DA upwards, the reality is anything over 4.5m on a non-news day is very rare and means likely a leak.

Oil leak or news leak? Or just a load of punters who don't want to risk being out in case news breaks over the w/e?

MrP ..... i'm not guessing! ...... every time i have had a look, the moving average has been much the same ..... anyway, as it stands, no news is no news

cynic, the volume moving average is very low.



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Harry, oil strike shallow first target is whats doing the rounds. Still got the second deeper targets to go as well.

Look at the volume cynic over the last 6 months, this is a sudden spike up in volume - way above normal.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=uk%3Abor&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F15%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=48&y=10

Big volume spike today.




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strange .... my info comes from google finance section ... perhaps your chart is SETS only?

Harrycat,

I think it is as you say, just a load of punters who don't want to risk being out in case news breaks over the w/e?

Post from marlon at iii detailing what the targets at Stebbing are :


..........The Tertiary Play at Stebbing was upgraded after the 3D analysis (I.e. Post CPR/Prospectus).

The Tertiary play has a P50 of 710mmbs recoverable. This would equate to a STOOIP in the region of 2.2billion barrels.

As Syn points out, the tertiary aged plays are very important as they overlay the Aptian Source rock, meaning that the shallowest source rock (the least likely to be overcooked/gas generating) would be the most likely source of any charge. The FOGL Loligo play is a different type but the same age.

For an oil charge we would need migration through the late Cretaceous into the tertiary.

Stebbing also has a deeper Cretaceous target, a similar age to Darwin. This has a P50 recoverable of 550mmbs. or notionally a STOOIP of 1.6billion.

If this were oil charged, it may bring into question whether Darwin was sourced from a deeper "Jurassic" source.

Difficult to know whether we prefer the Tertiary or Cretaceous from a basin perspective. BOTH would be nice.

BUT total STEBBING P50 recoverable is 1280mmbs..or near 4billion STOOIP. The P10 is unpublished, but who knows..............

It looks like something in the shape of hydrocarbons has been encountered but what exactly ?.....big surge up to 80p...before slipping back.....it just might be punters climbing aboard before news.....

My June Futures come to an end tomorrow on both BOR and FOGL, I've requested that both be rolled over.

No official news on the first target either.

Gently rising...FOGL as well...no news....except Rooney's playing tonight....

No sign of any leaks.....must be drilling towards the second target by now.....FOGL's turn getting closer....

A lot of buying at the end today and big jump up. Could be pointing to news very soon.

Dont think so i hear rig is not working again.

Wont get news till early July depending on this delay at moment.

Could see an "Embargoed to 7am" released in the morning - meaning it should not have leaked but someone did.

Could be the sample update - if I were BOR and the current Stebbing well is looking good then you get the Darwin sample news out first - good news followed by more good news.

If the Stebbing results are looking not so good you go slow on the Darwin testing and release that after any not so good Stebbing news.

All in all looks like something good has made it to a few people - so either rig worker leak or sample results leak.

If I were a betting man I would suggest we will get Darwin sample results in an RNS in the morning - and also that should mean Stebbing is good too when that news comes.

Well ?...what is it ?...rig not working or sample result or hydrocarbon strike !.....could be anything.....the only thing sure is gas consensate and a lot of it by the look of it so far....risky these falkland stocks but the upside is huge if it comes right.....