NOTE that FKL are now FIH group plc. Epic FIH.

It is now over 4 years since I started this thread.
During that period a lot has happened (an understatement if ever there as one).
Several oilies have drilled numerous wells, most with little success as yet, although Rockhopper Exploration has made significant finds.
These finds are in the process of being updated and have drawn interest from at least 5 oil production companies.
The sp of FKL in Oct 2007 was around 400p, which is almost level with todays sp.
Due to many what I consider low risk factors, the sp is well below true valuation.
In saying that I am leaving all fundamentals out of my reasoning, and looking solely at potential.
Over the last few months, I have read numerous reports regarding how the current exploration will make the Islanders rich.
Of course that wealth will be passed along to the businesses that are situated on the Falklands themselves.
With Falklands islands Holdings being 'The Business' on the islands, with fingers in many pies, they are ideally situated to cash in on all the areas mentioned.

I suggest to anyone who as not been following the Falklands Story, or are new to this thread, to peruse the latest news releases of FKL. Also those of RKH (Rockhopper) Fogl (Falklands Oil and Gas) Des (Desire Petroleum) and Bor (Borders and Southern).
I am not pushing any of these other companies, but to post all the relevant updates on this header would take the whole page.

Remember who made steady big money during the Klondike Gold Rush.
OK some miners made fortunes, but the big steady money was made by those who saw the potential in suppling the essentials, IE those that supplied the tools to do the job.
I look at FKL as a sort of hedging to the explorers themselves.
But with hedging like this, we can all win.

Option take up not as much as it could be.

BHP Billiton has decided to exercise its option from 40% to 51%. As Billiton had an option of up to 65% I feel this will keep the sp stable.
Not disappointed though.

Are We 'Running Out!
The link below is to a very interesting article.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

It is VERY long so won't cut paste any sections.
On initial reading, it appears to be a scare mongering article, and if you believe just half of it, you will probably go to the nearest cliff and jump of. But there are many obvious truths that can't be ignored, and it is worth wading through.
Several of these obvious truths are that the more drastic the shortages become the more governments will encourage exploration/production. There will be very generous tax breaks, grants and as many incentives as they can think of to make sure any last vestige of oil is removed from the ground at virtually any price.
Just reading a few sections made me think that the next 3 to 5 years could be the most profitable for oil exploration/drilling companies and their partners ever.

Be interesting to see what others think.

Although the article applies to all companies such as Fogl/Fkl I don't want to take over this thread (as most probably won't be that interested) .
So if there is sufficient interest, it would probably be best to comment on the Oil-News-Flow thread. Traders Room if you have access

Brief update re Falkland Fields.

The survey work has been completed and we await further developments as to when a suitable rig or drill ship will be brought to the Falklands to begin exploratory drilling. Best estimates point to the later part of 2008 but this is not certain. Desire Petroleum plc can begin exploratory drilling at any time.

I'm aware we knew that most of the survey work had been completed, but I for one (unless I missed it) was unaware that all present survey work had finished.
Also a bit more conformation re drilling dates.
No doubt other such survey work will follow depending on many local and world political issues.

Not much of a fillip to FKL's price but as a certain store states, 'every little helps'.

The Times Reporter.....Steve Farrar
Later this year, the Falklands 3,000 islanders should learn whether it will become the richest nation on earth. A floating oil rig will drill up to a dozen test wells deep into the sea bed around the British overseas territory. The findings should settle a decade of speculation over whether the islands lie in a particularly lucrative oil field.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/career_and_jobs/careers_in/careers_in_energy/article3237783.ece

Well worth a read.

Penguin News

Perhaps your mole could be a penguin when this site is up and running Greek.

The Penguin doesn't miss very much.

pth

Could be. Actually I do always check the Penguin News as well as the Ostrich Weekly.
Will keep you posted.

Nice to see FKL well up today. Sector up 1.99% with FKL up 6.82%. (1105 hr).

Now over 9% sp rise. It must be a leak re the date for a rig surely, or at least a big buy not yet showing on the books.

OK now we know why the sp rise (see Desire petroleum news DES.L)

SP up 10% probably on the back of the following, and the outlook re possible oil flow being on an upward slant.
Byron Holdings Ltd acquired 200,000 of its (Desire) at 53.125 pence each, taking its beneficial interest to about 1.6 mln shares, or 0.7 pct of the issued capital.

Desire Petroleum non-executive director Lewis Clifton is a director and shareholder of Byron Holdings.

EDIT.... RNS now out. Any idea's anyone. Been trawling re any whispers, leaks or other indicators. Nothing out there.

Zak Mir is looking at Rockhopper to reach 125p if a resistance level is reached.

All these positives help FKL and other companies with connections in the Falklands basin.

The Falklands area hopefully will be the equivalent of the 1898 Klondyke Gold Rush, which made a lot of people mega bucks. Well we can only hope. After all it is often said that Oil is the new Gold. Time to get me mule loaded up, now where's me shovel.

Note to self...Lay off those funny tablets the doc said would stop me hallucinating.

Strange acquisition or what. Would not have guessed this one. Talk about diversification. Still looks a good buy on fundamentals.

Up a bit today.
Could be connected to,
1 Fogl had huge volumes yesterday at many multiples of their daily average trades.
2 Borders and Southern are rumored to a take over bid by Shell.

So!! Why the sudden rise??

Some Desire connection ??

Any ideas ??

Peter

Could just be connected to todays OPEC report that crude prices are likely to increase greatly over the next few months after reaching a yet new record of $126.40 per barrel, as well as the feedback of oil usage is that there is very little reduction in use, even at the resent prices.
Also with the Lebanon situation, and Egypt stating they may supply troops the whole Muslim situation looks a bit more precarious that usual.
It looks like the oil producers are going to squeeze us till the pips squeak.
Of course now our ever caring PM has promised to listen, I am sure he will put the interests of consumers of oil before the coffers of the Treasury, and greatly reduce the tax on fuel to account for the huge increase in revenue for the government.
Yer right.

Good figures. Especially looking at The Equity shareholders' funds which at 30 September 2008 were 28.3 million (2007: 36.9 million) representing net assets per share of 312p....The shares at present are 200p per share. (2007: 436p per share).
Posative cash flow with an equally good cash strength position.
Even looking at these figures the current sp looks good.
No doubt the heights of the last 12 months were all the hype of the oil field activity. If/when these field do com onto line we will see these heights broken.
The reasons I chose this share is that even if these fields don't come in, they do have company value whereas those who are solely relying on these fields don't.
Any views out there.

FOGL's sp is dependant on whether BHP/BLT decide to drill in 2009, if they do go ahead in spite of a lower oil price this would generate a great deal of speculative excitement. Don't hold your breath!

Nice update re FOGL

Falkland Oil and Gas Provides Operational Update
Tuesday, December 16, 2008

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Falkland_Oil_and_Gas_Provides_Operational_Update/95af389b.aspx

Re the trading update.

RNS states....will be slightly lower than market expectations of 2.4m.
The MoneyAm release states in line with expectations despite the difficult economic environment.

So RNS lower, MoneyAm in line. Great.
Still a bit of a neutral statement. As we know the only thing to give this a jump, up or down will be the final outcome from the oil fields.

It appears that figures released today show that although mergers/acquisitions over the last year have dropped in general terms by 20% globally and 9% in the UK, such moves in the Oil and Gas industry have risen by 73% in those listed in the UK.
Presumably most if not a large percentage will be of profit making companies.
So what will happen if companies such as those investing in the Falkland Fields start to make decent profits. Will they be taken out by the big boys.
The above figures do make it likely. There is a huge difference between 9% down and 73% up.
No personal opinion re this, just looking at the figures (taken from The Daily Telegraph).