Good post from III from Master Shanus :
"......Okay from the posts it seems we have oil at 14/10-3 but not the monster find of 14/10-2. If that is true that is fantastic! Here are two diagrams showing the locations of both wells. These are accurate locations taken from the eastings and northings of well sites.
You can see that the position of 14/10-3 is at the top of the northern lobe. The fact that it is charged is veryt good for the northern p[rospectes. There are a few scenarios for the chrging mechanism.
http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?g9c9ac3l6c3lz2q
http://www.mediafire.com/download.php?u42vetypznqtvqb
(1) Charge source is below 14/10-2. 14/10-2 is updip slightly from 14/10-3. You can see the gradient of the contours on the maps show that if a bulge in oil is occuring at 14/10-2 it is pusihing the oil to 14/10-3
(2) Charge source is below 14/10-2 and 14/10-3. This is the likely scenario given what I have read. Although we cannot discount scenario (1). If the charge is below both the probability of the whole fan being charged is high.
The Sealion fan is a complex interconnection of about 6-8 sands with some or all at any time in communication with each other. The fact that we may have charged sands at 14/10-3 means that there will be other places in the sealion fan where the pay gets thicker and thinner.
There is also a distinct possibility that S2 merges with the lower sealion fan in the north. If this is the case then if selaion lower is charged it opens up the prospectively of S2 further north. So the key here is to analyse the cores taken, go back the seisimics and identify with better reservoir conditions and nail down just how much oil there in this fan
I was walking along the coast today and spotted a flock of seagulls in formation. they made the shape of sideways distorted tear drop. It occurred to me that the formation of birdsa assisted druids and soothsayers in making decisions I immediately though that this was the oil distribution in the sealion fan, thick in the south getting thinner in the north. (I actually always thought the net pay would get thinner in the north and there was a high likelihood that the top sealion fan would get thinner and tighter). Now I am not going to get all DV on you... but it made me think about the morpholgy of the field anyway.
So upshot, oil is good, any net pay is good for appraisal of this fan. It will take at least 3-4 more wells drilled on the Sealion fan before they get a grip of exactly where the sweet spots are.
l also note DES can shoot up 50% on a 8m net pay, what can RKH do? The current market cp does not reflect any more than the P50 amount of oil (heavily discounted). They are currently drilling in the P10 area. Identification of any net pay will not make it P10.. but could push the evaluation to somewhere around P30 to P40.....