OK so you thought the title of the other thread was out of date BUT unfortunately there is no way to edit thread titles.

So here is a new title

This one has got the charts at the top again & has a link to the old one.
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=5021

queen, some are suggesting the share price may go to 150p to 200p on a deal for TroVax this year.

Investor's Chronicle
9th March 2007
Oxford Biomedica

Investors will be disappointed to hear that Oxford Biomedica's full-year results came and went without the announcement of a licensing deal for TroVax, its cancer product. TroVax is currently in Phase III trials that are being financed by the company. But chief executive, Professor Alan Kingsman insists that "discussions are maturing very nicely" and that the company is now very close to signing on the dotted line, which should give shareholders some comfort. However, he refused to give any timeline on a deal except to confirm that it should happen this year.

In the meantime, losses have nearly doubled as TroVax entered late-stage testing in patients with renal cancer, as well as other additional Phase III trials in colorectal and prostate cancer.

So Oxford Biomedica only has enough cash to fund the company until next year. Still, Professor Kingsman is confident that the hoped-for TroVax deal will come to fruition and that there will be no need for him to go cap-in-hand to the City again.

Meanwhile, ProSavin, the early-stage product for Parkinson's disease, is undergoing toxicology testing and gearing up to enter the clinic. This is likely to be in early 2008.

IC View:

The shares have more than doubled since July and could be volatile if a deal is slow to materialise. But for investors with an appetite for biotech, they are good value albeit higher risk.

LC - who is the "some" that have said they will go to 150 -200p? Whilst OXB has undoubted promise I've only seen that figure mentioned by one or two rampers on other BBs and they have since been banned for ramping and lying, surely you weren't referring to them?


Ludlow Castle - 09 Mar 2007 09:49 - 950 of 951
queen, some are suggesting the share price may go to 150p to 200p on a deal for TroVax this year.

I'd be surprised if they went that high - very pleasantly surprised!

OXB have today announced the purchase of a small independent biotech company, named Oxxon Therapeutics.

Oxxon's website states they have a viral based delivery platform (Hi-8 PrimeBoost); three immunotherapeutic drugs, covering cancer (melanoma) Hepatitis B (both of which have undertaken PII trials) and HIV; four preventative vaccines (3 in PII and one in PI); and intellectual property which includes 23 patent families resulting in over 100 issued patents and patent applications.

The cost to OXB is just 16m, which has been met by a small issue of 27m shares producing 5% dilution of the existing OXB stock. The purchase also gives OXB 3m cash from Oxxon's balance sheet.

The purchase appears to be a logical addition to OXB's portfolio and further spreads the risk. It also looks like very good value, i.e. just 16m for what amounts to a further delivery platform, seven new (largely mid stage) drugs, and associated IP. Infact, I can think of a couple of listed biotechs that have smaller pipelines but larger market capitalisations than 16m!

The announcement also contains a reference to the anticipated deal for TroVax.

-------------------------------

RNS Number:7430S
Oxford Biomedica PLC
12 March 2007

Oxford BioMedica to Acquire Oxxon Therapeutics

Acquisition Adds Melanoma Cancer Vaccine and Extends Immunotherapy Platform

Oxford BioMedica, ...announced today that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Oxxon Therapeutics Limited ('Oxxon'), a privately held biotechnology company, based in Oxford, UK. Oxxon is focused on the development of novel therapeutic vaccines for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases.

Key aspects of the acquisition are:

1) Oxxon's lead cancer vaccine has completed a Phase II trial in melanoma, the only solid tumour that cannot be treated with Oxford BioMedica's TroVax.

2) Oxxon's technology has broad product applications in cancer and infectious diseases and will create new licensing opportunities.

3) Transaction value of 16 million will be satisfied by the issue of Oxford BioMedica shares.

4) Assets acquired include net cash of approximately 3 million.

The acquisition of Oxxon provides Oxford BioMedica with a complementary cancer immunotherapy product candidate. The product, Hi-8(R) MEL, has successfully completed a Phase II trial for the treatment of advanced melanoma. Oxxon has other therapeutic programmes addressing infectious diseases, including hepatitis B and HIV. In addition, Oxxon has a strong intellectual property estate that broadens and complements Oxford BioMedica's proprietary position in immunotherapy and gene-based medicines.

Professor Alan Kingsman, Chief Executive of Oxford BioMedica, commented, "We are very pleased to have been able to take this opportunity to acquire of Oxxon Therapeutics. The acquisition expands our immunotherapy pipeline and strengthens our intellectual property position in the field of immunology. Oxxon's Hi-8(R) MEL vaccine has generated encouraging Phase II results as a treatment of advanced melanoma. The market opportunity for an effective melanoma vaccine is substantial and this is a cancer type where our immunotherapy, TroVax, cannot be developed because, unlike the vast majority of human tumours, melanomas do not have 5T4 on the surface of the tumour cells. This acquisition is part of the implementation of a plan for the development of our pipeline following finalisation of a licensing deal for TroVax."

Iain Wilcock, Deputy Managing Director of Quester, a major investor in Oxxon, commented, "We are very pleased with this transaction, which combines the broad immunotherapy technology of Oxxon with one of the world's leading companies in cancer vaccines and gene therapy. There is clear synergy in this combination and, given Oxford BioMedica's technical and development expertise, we believe that the enlarged company can maximise the opportunity for Oxxon's technology."

Transaction details

The transaction is valued at 16 million, to be satisfied by the issue 27,551,628 Oxford BioMedica shares to Oxxon shareholders for the entire share capital of Oxxon and 4,219,618 shares for the repayment of a loan from Oxxon shareholders to Oxxon.

Oxxon's key investors, who as a result of the transaction will have an interest in Oxford BioMedica shares, are the venture capital firms Quester, MVM Life Science Partners and US-based East Hill Management.

Subject only to Admission the shares are expected to commence trading on 15 March 2007.

From Oxonn's website:

http://www.oxti.com/products/immunotherapeutic_products.php

http://www.oxti.com/products/vaccine_collaborations.php

We may have to wait a while for the effects of this to be understood, but I suspect this is a cracking good deal for all those involved.
The rise in OXB sp has been quite dramatic even from a few months ago - so let's hope this is maintained as the two businesses are formed into one team.
Good luck...this is my largest holding to date and showing a decent profit. If only all UK companies had a "steady as she goes" attitude to news progress.
We could see some fall-back, but their AGM will be the best-ever, I suppose.

A few errors regarding the purchase price (actually 16m) but otherwise some interesting points, as follows:

............................

Oxford BioMedica Buys Oxxon, In Share Offering Valued At 16M
By Nuala Moran
BioWorld International Correspondent

14th March 2007

LONDON - Oxford BioMedica plc is acquiring its fellow immunotherapy specialist Oxxon Therapeutics Ltd. in an all-paper deal that values Oxxon at 12 million (US$23.3 million). In addition to six clinical stage products, the deal brings Oxford BioMedica 3 million in cash.

Alan Kingsman, Oxford CEO, said he is particularly interested in Oxxon's lead product, a melanoma vaccine, Hi-8 MEL, which is in Phase II. "The acquisition will be neutral in terms of cash burn. The 3 million we get through the transaction is enough to cover the costs of getting the melanoma product through to Phase III and out-licensing," he told BioWorld International.

Oxford BioMedica is issuing almost 31 million shares for the entire share capital and in repayment of a loan from Oxxon's shareholders to the company. This is based on an average closing price of .5036 over the month preceding the deal. Almost 26 million of the shares will be subject to a lock-up for six months, after which there will be an orderly disposal managed by Oxford BioMedica's brokers.

Oxxon's main shareholders are the UK venture capital firms Quester and MVM Life Science Partners, and East Hill Management of the U.S. They most recently invested in a 15 million round in April 2003. The company was spun out of Oxford University in 1999, and raised 1.1 million in its first round funding in May 2000.

Oxxon's products use sequential immunization with two different vectors - a DNA plasmid followed by modified vaccinia Ankara - carrying the genes for the same antigens. The two-stage regimen called PrimeBoost, primes the immune system to recognize the target and then boosts the immune response, generating cytotoxic T lymphocytes.

Hi-8 MEL for the treatment of advanced melanoma encodes seven epitopes derived from five melanoma antigens. The product has completed a Phase II dose-selection study in 41 patients with nonresectable melanoma. It was well-tolerated at all doses and immune responses were seen in 91 percent of patients receiving the highest dose. Eight patients showed tumor responses for more than six months. All but one of the tumor responses had associated immune responses.

After 24 months follow-up, median survival was 100 weeks for immune responders, vs. 37 weeks for non-responders and 42 weeks for a group of control patients that received standard therapy.

Apart from the melanoma vaccine, the company has a hepatitis B and an HIV therapy based on the technology in Phase II. Oxxon also has full rights to three further prophylactic vaccines in Phase II that are being developed by academic collaborators. Two of those, against HIV and malaria, have charitable funding. The HIV vaccine is supported by the International AIDS vaccine initiative, while malaria is funded by the Malaria Vaccine Initiative. The third is a vaccine against tuberculosis.

Although it already had clinical stage programs at the point it was spun out of Oxford University, Oxxon has worked hard progressing them. Kingsman said there is nothing wrong with the PrimeBoost technology. "It's not a problem with the science, it's a problem with the way they have done business development. Having come to the end of their ability to raise money doesn't mean there aren't some nuggets in there."

Kingsman has spent the last 18 months in negotiations over the licensing of Oxford BioMedica's lead product, the cancer immunotherapeutic TroVax, and said he is close to a deal that will unlock the potential of cancer vaccines in general.

"We've never had any difficulty getting attention from pharma, and there is an almost universal enthusiasm for the concept of TroVax. But cancer vaccines have had a checkered history. We think we've now got over that hump." Licensing TroVax will pave the way to a deal on the melanoma vaccine.

Kingsman said it is planned to review the other programs separately. Oxxon's two facilities in Oxford, UK, and Boston will be closed, and key research staff will transfer to Oxford BioMedica.

OXFORD BIOMEDICA AND SANOFI-AVENTIS ENTER GLOBAL LICENSING
AGREEMENT TO DEVELOP AND COMMERCIALISE TROVAX(R) FOR CANCER


Oxford, UK - 28 March 2007: Oxford BioMedica (LSE: OXB) and sanofi-aventis
(EURONEXT: SAN; NYSE: SNY) announced today that they have entered into an
exclusive global licensing agreement to develop and commercialise TroVax(R) for
the treatment and prevention of cancers.

TroVax(R) is Oxford BioMedica's lead cancer immunotherapy. It has been evaluated
in clinical trials involving more than 180 patients with various forms of
cancer. A Phase III trial in renal cancer is ongoing.

Under the terms of this agreement:

This seems to be an excellent deal to me and yet the sp is down - there's no pleasing some people!!

The deal had already been priced in. If you are a short term trader it was time to move on. If you are a long term investor and patient the price will go higher, but it is a phase 3 trial only and how many of those are unsuccessful.

True on both counts Fred1new but the belief shown by Sanofi-Aventis should, I would have thought, been mirrored by some new investors.

The failure figure used to be quoted at around 30% with 60% getting through. The remaining 10% ... who knows;-).
However Trovax may be more uncertain than previous drugs & will probably be treated as such, as it is breaking new ground!

The dip was, IMO, very useful for those of us who felt like topping up.

With the company valued at around 280M & the payments, combined with a sharing of trial & development expense should make a significant difference to the progress of OXB. At the end of last year they stated they had 28.5M in cash so the 19.84M will make a major difference. Although I see nothing concerning the timing of the first payment apart from the word 'initial' which may not mean soon.

Evolution have raised their target to 61p, but it might take a littlle while to get there. May be a day or so as I think their estimate is quite conservative!

Whilst, "under the deal, TroVax may be developed by Sanofi in any cancer setting, Oxford has retained an option to develop TroVax for other cancer types in exchange for enhanced financial returns, while Sanofi will keep all commercial rights. It has also retained an option to participate in the promotion of TroVax in the US and the European Union." So there could be even more to come.

Jon Senior at Evolution is quoted as saying "If you add in sales milestones, it could be worth more than 1 bln usd." However perhaps I should capitalise the 'could'!

A great deal of uncertainty has been taken out of the development of Trovax & that in itself, must be worth a significant lift!

Fly by Night

Red

WAS IN THE THE D/TELE ON THURS MORNING INTERSTING ARTICAL THAT WAS
WRITTIN REGADING IT

Great note Red, thanks.

Oxford Biomedica PLC
29 March 2007







For Immediate Release 29 MARCH 2007


OXFORD BIOMEDICA: NOTICE OF ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING

Oxford, UK - 29 March 2007: Oxford BioMedica (LSE: OXB), the leading gene
therapy company, announces today that it will be holding its Annual General
Meeting on Thursday, 3 May 2007, 11.00am, at the offices of Morrison & Foerster
MNP, CityPoint, One Ropemaker Street, London EC2Y 9AW. A notice of the 2007
Annual General Meeting will be sent to shareholders on 2 April 2007.

Here are some press links to today's comments:

Second article on this one!
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article1582670.ece

http://www.market-insider.net/?p=1648
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2401749.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/03/29/cxquest29.xml

I've been busy today & not had time to read them all myself.... Yet!


Red

[[All those late-March2007 newspaper-reviews are kind and give a good overview to the many years of underlying effort (and shareholder patience) - that it has been achieved is testament to Trovax and the staff....thanks!]]

OXB has been busy-busy recently, or how it comes over as News - the truth is that they are always this busy but what is moving along isn't newsworthy. This deal is "probably" the best news a full-list London stock has received in relation to its capitalisation... for Many Years!
Even if Trovax doesn't work, OXB walks-away with a pile of dosh and they have been quick to buy another Oxford-based company to add to the pipeline - this makes sense, as execs could become blinkered with their own products and the new-blood will serve to widen their horizons.

What of the future?
Let's assume that Trovax continues to gain strength (and Approval) - Then it depends on the life-extension it provides .... Ideas range from a few weeks (any less and you're into nebulous "is it working?" territory (like British Biotech-Oops!) but if it adds a few months to many patients and maybe a year or so to others, then by any standard it is worthwhile. There is a possibility that some may be cured, but that is wishful-thinking until the statistics are proven.
This deal shows that the potential is really serious - and that means several parties are confident enough to cough-up significant lolly.....great! and long may it continue -

Will we see any sp improvement? . . . a small dividend would be nice, payable over 1-year for shareholders on the register when this deal was ann. - would be a result!
It's unlikely, but would serve to demonstrate the company is a serious cash generator and not hype - who knows it might convince Institutions to invest before the sp goes balistic.

How high can it go?
Well at current levels it reflects the extra cash-in-hand and I suspect there is little there for the "future-value".....and frankly the earlier sp was 30p and a deal was expected - so the extra cash is looking like it's the 15-20p on top - practically less than the cash-value. Oh dear!
Therfore I don't think the sp values Trovax any further than "inrteresting" - later, when it generates sales, then we should see a further 20p for each chunk as that adds to the Company - so maybe 20p in yr1(2008), a further 20p in yr2 and so on, as the market penetration improves each 20p could become 25-30-35.
Look again in 3-years and there is minimum 45p (say) of cash and fundamentals, then each year =25p plus 30p plus 35p representing the cash-flow/penetration. ((obviously any blip, when Approval is given may exceed 1 for a few days...but many loose-holders will drop-out))...however, my suggestion is already 1.35 as a steady-value - so one has to ask: Is the "1-blip" likely to be greater? - the answer has to be "yes" - they always are!
So what size could this "blip" be? Well, for my money I expect a peak to be about 1.5x the steady-state - look at any stock that's has had some excitement (ignore 1-day wonders) - and you will see that such a blip (or surge) will be 1.5x steady-level (drawn across 1-year of variations)...so perhaps 1.35 x 1.5 = 2 by my maths.....very nice! . . . and I expect OXB will slip over following 3-weeks, as loose holders drop stock to satisfy institutional invesrtors....

However, this ignores the time-scale - 3-years - so some patience is needed! (and some continuing good fortune).
This is my longest-held significant share and looks good so-far.....pity the Market doesn't agree with my maths; but that's Figures for you!
I'm indicting a peak of 2 and a steady-state moving from just under 1 (maybe this time next year) to over 1 in the year beyond - and that surge is worth about 50-65 pence if you move quickly. If you can afford 20,000 shares (that's still under 10k right now!), the money you could make on swift-dealing is 11k-ish for a 3-year hold(to 2010)....probably worth having some in an ISA and the rest as Certificated/nominee ... By reacting quickly, you will bank some profit AND keep your stock if things go acording to pattern......but "if" is the operative here, DYOR.

Any contrarian views?
- I'm particularly interested in 'yr take' on "time-scale" and a potential "surge" as this is where some cash can be made, yet still hold the stock further-on.....

Great read hangon and well thought out. The way the sp is motoring south again at present would suggest the wider market doesn't agree with your figures but I think, as usual, it is being very short-termist and I certainly intend to hold for the longer tem outlook.

Thanks for the post red (oxb) will go down till about 38p and then it will start to rise ............................long trem