I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Am gonna hold for the figures on the 15th. With a rising market I anticipate reasonable figures.

Same for me harry but am bit afraid i got in a bit high, live in hope..

CC
good for you, well done in getting out so quickly and at such a small loss. it dont matter if it now goes up. you absolutely did the best thing. in fact bottling it is great, fronting it out costs a lot more. and not just in monetary terms. timing is all important, and if in doubt get out, and thats what you did, well done to you.what happens next dont matter, you did the right thing.maybe a plan next time might be better, just a suggestion,
regards
jkd

you had onions jkd your repeating......

Bb
glad someone is taking notice, ta.
if it helps anyone then i shall continue to post. i shall continue anyway..
just humour me, at least i try not to be abusive or offend anyone.
if it helps anyone then i shall continue to post, i shall continue anyway..
i also try my best to be truthfull and not deliberately mislead anyone.
just offering my own views and o(pi)nions on things. seems they are consistant and therefore repeat. LoL ;-)
good luck to you
regards
edit Bb i like your posts and your honesty so please do not misinterpret this post
ta. and best regards to you.
jkd

jkd - Appreciate your advice - Thanks!

.

Harrycat - Did you glean anything from CEO Peter Clarke's comments on CNBC yesterday? Hedge Fund discussion on CNBC today at 0830 could be interesting ahead of EMG results (Q3) Friday.

Getting Banjaxed early doors on Trading Statement, looks like I made the right decision.

Business Financial Newswire
Hedge fund manager, Man Group reports a quiet third quarter for sales but the Group says that the outlook for hedge fund flows is promising.

Funds under management slipped 4% to $42.4bn at the end of December. The Group says that this was principally due to AHL negative investment movement of $1.2 billion, reflecting difficult trading conditions for managed futures strategies in December.

Private investor sales for the quarter of $1.1 billion combined with low redemptions to give a small net outflow of $0.1 billion. At the same time, Institutional redemptions of $1.4 billion in the course of the quarter resulted in an institutional net outflow of $1.0 billion.

CEO Peter Clarke says:"The financial third quarter is seasonally a quiet period for sales. The negative performance of AHL in December and a net institutional outflow for the quarter resulted in a 4% reduction in our funds under management as at 31 December. "Our new managed account business is seeing continued high levels of interest from institutional investors and we have just been selected by a large pension fund as the preferred provider for a mandate that could potentially reach around $1 billion. The deal, subject to contract, will be for a minimum of three years with allocations commencing in the first quarter of 2010.

"With a promising outlook for hedge fund flows and significant recent progress in our managed account business, Man remains very well placed to grow assets."

looks like we got to hold a bit longer harry..

Think I will wait while the analysts number crunch & the brokers have their say, but AHL has continually been a known thorn in the side of EMG. Redemptions figure isn't great either but am happy to hold for now. Suspect they will still pay a good divi in order to attract investors, but that's way off at the end of June.

Broker note from Credit Suisse:
"Investment Case: We continue to be bearish about Man group given our
concerns about downside risks to consensus forecasts and further negative
earnings revisions. Moreover we are relatively cautious about hedge fund
inflows and continue to believe that the market under-estimates the impact
of weak investment performance at AHL on future sales. Man group has
become heavily dependent on AHL in recent years with AHL-loaded private
client products contributing 97% of management fee earnings in H1 2010.
Valuation: We believe that Man groups dependence on AHL, high fee
structure and limited near-term growth means that its valuation is relatively
unattractive"

Summary from the Merrill Lynch note:
"Overall, we may trim our estimate by single digit percentages, reflecting AHLs
observed performance plus the marginal flow disappointment. Our view remains
that AHL performance is simply a short term risk which you have to bear if you
invest in Man. Historically, the strategy has bounced back relatively rapidly from
drawdowns, making periods of poor performance attractive entry points for Man.
Looking at the longer term, we continue to believe that what the company sells
diversification, risk control and liquidity is what investors are looking for, in both
retail and institutional formats. This is why we believe the company will be a long
term winner in the asset management industry, and why we reiterate our Buy".

Thanks harry, matter of waiting now, put it in the back of the drawer. lol

Evil's diary: www.uk-analyst.com

foxnil - low so far today 289.70 tempted to go long but with the Dow closed today, bit dodgy, I dont mind missing a few points to the upside so worth waiting.

UBS downgraded Man Group Plc (EMG.L: Quote, Profile, Research) to "sell" from "buy" and took a cautious stance ahead of the British hedge fund manager's trading statement, citing concerns over higher redemptions post the $50 billion fraud by Wall Street trader Bernard Madoff, and further deleveraging. The brokerage also cut its price target on the stock to 260 pence from 315 pence.

AHL still dragging this one down atm. Short term pain for longer term gain, imo.
(".....ahead of the British hedge fund manager's trading statement." Came out on the 15th, so a bit late for that post.)

Starting to look interesting now Harry, been hammered!