Anybody else out there interested in these?

2002 Results are due in April, and they are expected to show a maiden profit.
Last week I opened a small speculative long (spreadbet), but I am looking to add to this position a lot more if we get any sort of resolution over Iraq crisis before the results which should spark a broad market rally from which SKP could really benefit and have a strong run-up.

DYOR etc.


Here is a recent research note from Merrill Lynch (they estimate 0.25p EPS for 2002):


Merrill Lynch FlashNote

7 February 2003

SkyePharma

Newsflow Set To Continue BUY

Reason for Report: Company Update

EPS (Dec): 2001A -1.19p; 2002E 0.25p; 2003E 2.13p
P/E (Dec): 2001A NM; 2002E 180.0x; 2003E 21.1x

Michael Ashton, CEO SkyePharma, gave an upbeat and informative presentation today.

Depomorphine appears on track for US submission in June 03. The two pivotal trials (hip and lower abdominal surgery) have been concluded. To date, the results appear encouraging. Management believe that safety (eg respiratory depression and nausea) is not an issue for the drug.The company is also conducting an additional trial in C section patients which is completing enrollment and should be included in the European submission for Depomorphine later this year. We expect the pivotal trial data for Depomorphine to be presented at the American Society of Clinical Anaesthesiologists in October 2003.

Paxil CR continues to grow (accounting for c.26% of total Paxil scrips in the US). 50% of these Paxil CR scrips are repeat and Paxil CR accounts for c.7% of the total SSRI antidepressant market in the US. Paxil CR is already filed for pre-menstrual dysphoria disorder (PMDD). However, GSK also plans to submit the intermittent treatment of PMDD later this year.

SKP also confirmed that Quintiles plans to present new data for Solaraze at the American Society of Dermatology in March. SKP believes that Solaraze is making in-roads into the actinic keratosis market and appears to be taking market share from Ephedrex (5-FU). Clinical trials in Australia are on track, with SKP planning to submit Solaraze to the Australian regulatory authorities in 2004 (second largest market opportunity after the US).

Enzon has already started to market DepoCyt in the US and SKP expects to see wider usage of the drug by key oncologists in the next few months. Phase IV studies for the neoplastic meningitis indication are on track, with an FDA Advisory Committee meeting (ODAC) scheduled next month.

Overall, we expect the newsflow for SKP to continue and reiterate our BUY recommendation with a price objective of 80p (based on applying the speciality pharma multiple to our 06E EPS of 14p and discounting back agressively at 30% p.a.). Risks to the stock include the general risk of drug development delay and product approval failure.

That is an excellent post and many thanks for the update.I have held for a number of years,having top-sliced in early 2000;so I am in at a very low net cost and can afford to wait for success which I am sure will arrive.This is a share which has a firm downside resistance at 40p;so anyone going in long term to-day should benefit over the next 2 years-it will be a leader when the oversold Health sector roars back into favour and if the profit is realised then the 80p projection will be left in the slipstream.

some more positive news:


RNS Number:0658I
Skyepharma PLC
27 February 2003


For Immediate Release 27 February, 2003


SkyePharma Announces Proof of Principle for Second
Sustained-Release Injectable Technology for Protein Drugs


LONDON, UK, 27 February, 2003 -- SkyePharma PLC (NASDAQ:SKYE; LSE:SKP) announced
today that its Biosphere(R) sustained-release injectable technology had been
successfully used to deliver a protein drug over an extended period of time. A
paper in Drug Delivery Systems & Sciences (Vol 2 No 4 103-109) by scientists
from SkyePharma's research unit in Malmo, Sweden describes animal studies on the
release of human growth hormone over a period of two weeks from a single
injection. In the study, the human growth hormone was encapsulated with high
efficiency and released evenly throughout the period. Importantly the mild
encapsulation process and the inert conditions within the Biosphere(R)
particles preserved protein structure and function.

Dr Timo Laakso, head of R&D at SkyePharma Sweden that is developing the
Biosphere(R) technology, said "Now that proof of principle has been fully
established in animal studies, we can move to testing in man. Preparations are
in progress for manufacture of clinical trial material at our GMP-approved
facilities in Malmo."

The Biosphere(R) technology encapsulates the drug substance in highly purified
starch in microscopic spheres that are then coated with a copolymer of lactic
and glycolic acid (PLG). After injection, the coating and core erode and the
drug content is released over a period that can be controlled from days to
months. In contrast with conventional microspheres, the coating used in
Biosphere(R) does not contain any drug so there is a low "burst" even at high
drug loadings. The Biosphere(R) technology achieves encapsulation of protein
drugs under gentle conditions that avoid exposure of the protein to organic
solvents that can often cause structural changes.

Biosphere(R) is SkyePharma's second sustained-release injectable technology.
The first, DepoFoamTM, consists of tiny particles that contain the drug
dissolved in water in discrete compartments distributed throughout a lipid
"honeycomb" matrix. DepoFoamTM technology is employed in DepoCytTM, a
sustained-release injectable formulation of cytarabine that is already approved
and on the market in the USA for the treatment of lymphomatous meningitis. A
second DepoFoamTM product, DepoMorphineTM (sustained-release injectable
morphine for relief of moderate to severe post-operative pain) has completed its
pivotal Phase III trials and SkyePharma expects to file marketing applications
later this year. Among protein drugs, SkyePharma is also developing a
DepoFoamTM sustained-release formulation of interferon alpha-2b for GeneMedix
plc.

SkyePharma believes that the main potential for both DepoFoamTM and
Biosphere(R) technologies lies in their use to improve the delivery of
biologicals (protein drugs), an increasingly important challenge for the
pharmaceutical industry. There are already over one hundred protein or peptide
drugs on the market (with many hundreds more in clinical development) and this
type of drug normally cannot be given orally because proteins will not survive
passage through the digestive system. However the short half-life of most
protein drugs means that injections usually need to be given frequently and as
injections are unpopular with patients, compliance tends to be poor.

Michael Ashton, SkyePharma's Chief Executive Officer, said "With the
complementary DepoFoamTM and Biosphere(R) technologies, SkyePharma is now able
to formulate not only proteins and other drugs that are stable in water solution
but also those that are sensitive to water and organic solvents. With the
breadth and depth of our sustained-release delivery technology, SkyePharma is
well positioned to be a major participant in the development of unique
value-added biological products."


SkyePharma PLC develops pharmaceutical products benefiting from world-leading
drug delivery technologies that provide easier-to-use and more effective drug
formulations. There are now nine approved products incorporating three of
SkyePharma's five delivery technologies in the areas of oral, injectable,
inhaled and topical delivery, supported by advanced solubilisation capabilities.
For more information, visit www.skyepharma.com.

LONDON (AFX) - GlaxoSmithKline PLC has lost a key court case protecting
patents on its biggest selling drug, the antidepressant Paxil, according to US
industry sources.
A Chicago court ruled against GSK's claim that a generic version of Paxil by
Canadian company Apotex breached its patents.
US industry sources said Apotex could launch its version of the drug as
early as September.
email: newsdesk@afxnews
jm/ak




The effect of this ruling on SKP is rather complicated and unclear, it should be beneficial in the short term as GSK will push Paxil CR as hard as possible, but could mean less revenue for SKP in the long term.

Bit of action today, One could be cynical about this as it is thought that csfb still have a stock overhang from a large purchase at the end of last year from Janus capital, i'm still waiting for the right moment to top up my long position on SKP prior to results.
:

(7.36 am)
LONDON (AFX) - Skyepharma is expected to attract fresh support in opening
deals as the influential pharmaceuticals team at CSFB adopted a much more
positive tack.

The broker upped its recommendation on Skyepharma to 'outperform' from
'neutral', and hiked its price aim to 105 pence from 71 pence.


end

From todays FT.

Drug company SkyePharma rose 4.6 per cent to 45.5p as Credit Suisse First Boston upgraded it to "outperform" from "neutral", simultaneously raising its target price to 105p from 71p. CSFB said SkyePharma's "attractive" pipeline of new products would probably allow the company to move into profit, and estimated royalty revenue would rise from 7.3m last year to 93m in 2006.

no one has discussions here. not enough ppl. its not really worth it mate. Im going back to ADVFN with my contribution to skp. DOH!!

Homer
someone has to try and get the ball rolling

anyway here is the full blurb from csfb

CSFB 6th March 2003

Upgrading to Outperform vs Neutral. TP up to 105p (71p)

Our rating upgrade reflects our view of SKP's attractive portfolio of products, promising late-stage pipeline and probable move into reported profitability (even if it is flattered by financial structure). Our new share-price target is 105p (previously 71p).

Three big pharma companies relying on SKP's technologies.

Paxil CR is SkyePharma's most conspicuous success, in our opinion, accounting for 32% of new Paxil scripts in the US, with a 3% gross royalty from GlaxoSmithKline to SKP. (Note our model assumes the entry of generic paroxetine in fourth-quarter 2003). Similarly, Sanofi-Synthabo markets Xatral XL for prostatism in Europe and plans to launch it as UroXatral in the US in 2003. Schering-Plough plans to launch its Foradil Certihaler for asthma in the US in second-half 2003.

Excellent profit share on DepoMorphine and Propofol-IDD.

SEC documents reveal that SKP's deal with Endo on these exciting pipeline drugs provides exceptional economics, in our view. The US$37m in upfront fees from Endo, and from Enzon for DepoCyt, should enable the company to report a profit for 2002, because UK accounting rules are less prescriptive than US GAAP.

Positives outweigh negatives.

We believe the positives on SKP now significantly outweigh the negatives that we have previously emphasised, such as poor disclosure (DepoCyt withdrawal), circular deals (Bioglan and Astralis) and atypical financings (Paul Capital).

High growth rates.

We expect royalty revenue to grow from 7.3m in 2002 to 93.0m in 2006 (CAGR 89%). We forecast total revenue (including deal-related milestones) to grow from 71.1m in 2002 to 168.5 in 2006 (CAGR 24%). We forecast PBT to grow from 1.3m in 2002 to 61.1m in 2006. We expect basic EPS to grow from 0.2p in 2002 to 8.8p in 2006, although the number of shares outstanding could be increased by pre-agreed contingent share issues

Analyst at WestLB Panmure argues that the turn of events could be good news for GSK’s partner Skyepharma (SKP), which developed Paxil CR.
Malik forecasts Glaxo will want to make Paxil CR 50% of its anti-depressant franchise ahead of generic competition.



Analysts shrug off GSK's Paxil patent woes



A more effective version of Paxil likely to more than offset competition from generics

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has lost a landmark court case in its bid to defend Paxil from generic competition but analysts believe Paxil CR, the controlled release version of the anti-depressant will save the day.

The drug giant announced this morning that in a Chicago court battle Judge Posner ruled the hemihydrate patent for the blockbuster selling anti-depressant was valid but generic competitor Apotex’s anhydrate formulation did not infringe the patent.

The news knocked the stuffing out of the drug giants’ shares, and by late afternoon stood 3.1% to 1087p. Paxil counts as 10% of sales.

However Glaxo plans to appeal the ruling, which will take 12 months to be heard, and analysts say Apotex is unlikely to launch their generic version in the interim and according to James Culverwell at Merrill Lynch not until 20th September 2003 at the earliest.

Although the ruling casts a shadow over the stock analysts remain buyers. Navid Malik, analyst at Williams de Brosays on the bright side GSK had ‘partially favourable’ rulings on Paxil patents last year and he expects the company to start aggressively switching into Paxil CR, the controlled release version of the drug, which already counts for a third of new prescriptions. Paxil CR is considered to induce fewer side effects such as nausea and as such has a lower dropout rate. Malik forecasts Glaxo will want to make Paxil CR 50% of its anti-depressant franchise ahead of generic competition.

Culverwell has similarly adjusted his forecasts, anticipating a generic launch by 2004. He argues that the likely loss of Paxil is already in the price and the premature loss of the drug actually ‘removes the 2007 final patent expiry overhang’. However risks of litigation, R&D failure and adverse currency issues remain a concern.

On the plus side Dr. Keith Redpath, analyst at WestLB Panmure argues that the turn of events could be good news for GSK’s partner Skyepharma (SKP), which developed Paxil CR. Skyepharma shares fell 3% but Redpath argues that some City investors do not understand that doctors prescribing Paxil CR are unlikely to switch into a generic copy of Paxil original because of the side effect profile.

Glaxo said its earnings guidance remains at the high single digits for the present but warned it may be revised if a generic version is launched. Meanwhile a further case concerning Paxil is to be heard in Philadelphia.

Keep up the good work, I've come in to this website, so I'll also post on SKP.
Today's West LB Panmuir comments are obvious in advance to nearly everyone, so it came as no surprise.
Volume up today, as with many stocks

H.

Homer,to each his own.

I'm a long term holder in an identical position to Nathan above, ie after top slicing at the peak my residual holding is at very low unit cost.

I prefer this style of thread to the ADVFN SKP threads. Lets just communicate when there is something worthwhile to say, rather than on the other side where SKP is just a vehicle for for a lot of windbagging by the same few pompous prats on a daily basis. The whole thing degenerated into personal abuse of farsical magnitude over there.

For me, the few posts above tell pretty much the whole story as it stands at present. So although I regard myself as pretty well informed about this share, I've nothing to add. Sitting tight, keeping the faith, may top up soon.

regards to all fellow holders.

I have added to my long position this morning and looking forward to results on the 2nd April.
Good luck to all holders

If anyone wants an excellent introduction to this company and their products you can listen to a webcast of yesterday presentation at SG Cowans Annual Healthcare Conference found at this link


http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=SKYE&script=1010&item_id=719277

FTSE 250 risers

SkyePharma 45-3/4 up 3

Merrill Lynch 'buy' with 80 pence price target
..............................................



results next wednesday

doh! im gonna buy some now

Not too late to jump on board Homer,
looks like some others are just cottoning-on:


28 Mar 2003 13:50 GMT

SkyePharma rises on hopes of maiden profit

LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Shares in Britain's SkyePharma Plc rallied on Friday as analysts raised hopes the drug delivery specialist would report its first full-year profit next Wednesday and stay in the black thereafter.
The shares had climbed 7.6 percent to 46 pence by 1345 GMT, valuing the business at around 279 million pounds ($435.8 million).

Joint house broker Merrill Lynch said in a note to clients it expected SkyePharma to make a profit of 200,000 pounds for 2002, compared with a loss of 9.5 million in 2001.

The investment bank is also forecasting net profit of 15 million pounds for 2003, driven by milestone payments as SkyePharma clinches a European partner for its biggest new drug hope, painkiller Depomorphine.

SkyePharma, which made a four million-pound loss at the half-year stage, said in January it did not know for sure whether it would post a profit for 2002 as it signed two other drug partnering deals.

As both deals were signed at the end of December, the firm hopes to recognise some of the revenue from them in 2002.

"People have been looking for this for a while (a move to sustainable profitability), and this time I think we're going to see it," said Keith Redpath, an analyst at WestLB Panmure. He is forecasting 2002 pre-tax profit of about one million pounds.

not long to go now

Good write up in yesterdays The Business

maiden profit of 1.33 mln. nice one skp, congrat to the managment

Do any of the previous holders of this share still do so? I have been holding for the long term (for a while now) and still feel this share has further to run. However, the share price has had a great run of late since its disappointing summer announcements. The only recent positive news I can find relates to its filing for a patent on Depomorphine, which doesn't seem to justify its latest rise. Does anyone know any more ?

Another contract tie up, this time with Novartis for one of their asthma drugs, on the back of the depomorphine announcement, has perked the shares up again. Any other holders/opinions out there?