Anybody else out there interested in these?

2002 Results are due in April, and they are expected to show a maiden profit.
Last week I opened a small speculative long (spreadbet), but I am looking to add to this position a lot more if we get any sort of resolution over Iraq crisis before the results which should spark a broad market rally from which SKP could really benefit and have a strong run-up.

DYOR etc.


Here is a recent research note from Merrill Lynch (they estimate 0.25p EPS for 2002):


Merrill Lynch FlashNote

7 February 2003

SkyePharma

Newsflow Set To Continue BUY

Reason for Report: Company Update

EPS (Dec): 2001A -1.19p; 2002E 0.25p; 2003E 2.13p
P/E (Dec): 2001A NM; 2002E 180.0x; 2003E 21.1x

Michael Ashton, CEO SkyePharma, gave an upbeat and informative presentation today.

Depomorphine appears on track for US submission in June 03. The two pivotal trials (hip and lower abdominal surgery) have been concluded. To date, the results appear encouraging. Management believe that safety (eg respiratory depression and nausea) is not an issue for the drug.The company is also conducting an additional trial in C section patients which is completing enrollment and should be included in the European submission for Depomorphine later this year. We expect the pivotal trial data for Depomorphine to be presented at the American Society of Clinical Anaesthesiologists in October 2003.

Paxil CR continues to grow (accounting for c.26% of total Paxil scrips in the US). 50% of these Paxil CR scrips are repeat and Paxil CR accounts for c.7% of the total SSRI antidepressant market in the US. Paxil CR is already filed for pre-menstrual dysphoria disorder (PMDD). However, GSK also plans to submit the intermittent treatment of PMDD later this year.

SKP also confirmed that Quintiles plans to present new data for Solaraze at the American Society of Dermatology in March. SKP believes that Solaraze is making in-roads into the actinic keratosis market and appears to be taking market share from Ephedrex (5-FU). Clinical trials in Australia are on track, with SKP planning to submit Solaraze to the Australian regulatory authorities in 2004 (second largest market opportunity after the US).

Enzon has already started to market DepoCyt in the US and SKP expects to see wider usage of the drug by key oncologists in the next few months. Phase IV studies for the neoplastic meningitis indication are on track, with an FDA Advisory Committee meeting (ODAC) scheduled next month.

Overall, we expect the newsflow for SKP to continue and reiterate our BUY recommendation with a price objective of 80p (based on applying the speciality pharma multiple to our 06E EPS of 14p and discounting back agressively at 30% p.a.). Risks to the stock include the general risk of drug development delay and product approval failure.

I wont be selling, they have got dozens of products in R&D surely some must come good, also a couple of brokers have a 3.50 target on this stock over the next two years or so.

Difficult to understand above consternation, I too have been in and out of skp for about 6 years now, buying at or about 56 to 62 and selling ca 72 - 85 isn't that what its all about?

Well we've now got the first deal of the three. SKP announced this morning the deal for Depomorphine in Europe with Medeus. On the surface looks like they've done well - 100m euros + in milestones (including an upfront payment) and then 35-50% of future sales. Lets hope the other two deals are as good as this one (and announced prior to 29th April)

Consternation, you must have looked that one up jainsworth
Your kangaroo trading is OK but one day you might go to jump back on board and find the train has long gone, or you might be on board and get of at the wrong stop. Consternation to think of how much commission you pay.
P.S SKP could have done better than the 5m upfront payment they got.

Some good news for a change
LONDON (AFX) - Skyepharma PLC and Endo Pharmaceuticals announced that the US
Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has approved SkyePharma''s new drug application
for DepoDur for the treatment of pain following major surgery.

Previously referred to as DepoMorphine, DepoDur is a novel single dose
sustained-release injectable formulation of morphine.

Driver

Cracking news and a good reaction from the market. Glad I topped up at 52p last week. If we could just get the pulmonary deal in the next few weeks this could really take off. We should now start to see some forecasts for this year as the picture becomes clearer.

any thoughts price wise on this skyepharma big jump yesterday,slight fall today as to a buying in point,,,0.60 seems good to me at to it falling back to this point,doubtful. any views on price 12/months from now,seems a lot hinges on this deal ,,people are talking about ,with the yanks.

This share as well as future deals is a take over target, any price below 65p is a good price to buy in.

DRIVER,AS WITH A LOT OF THESE TYPE,, ITS ALL IN THE FUTURE,LETS HOPE THIS HAS A BRIGHT ONE?

Dave

I have held SKP shares for nearly four years now. If buying in, be under no illusion that this has always been a jam tomorrow company and has a track record of disappointing the city. Subsequently it (and its management) now has a very poor reputation. Also, historically most of its revenue has come from milestone payments which has led to a very lumpy profit performance over the years making it very difficult to value the future prospects of the company.

The products/drug pipeline are very strong but over recent times the management has been struggling to deliver these products to the markets.

At the end of the financial year 2003, SKye made its maiden profit and promised profit going forward. Prior to this yr end, it announced that there were 3 large deals in the pipeline which would be signed by the year end. Early Jan, they announced they were still working on the deals but they would be announced within the results. In April they released the results, having only announced one of the three deals. Last week they announced the second deal and also the FDA approval of Depomorphine.

The share price had dropped back to 50p and surged to 70p yesterday before falling back to 62p.

In the background, Ian Gowrie Smith the chairman who created the company stood down at the annual results, but Chief Exec Michael Ashton has been viewed as on borrowed time for a long time (he was in shares mags 10 bosses we want fired). Also, Dr Gonella who holds a vast quantity of stock has been selling into the rises over the past 18 months or so. He still holds in the region of 40m shares at the last count.

The outstanding deal is for a package of pulmonary products and is believed to be the biggest of the three deals. They admitted to turning down a deal late last year which had $90m up front milestone plus royalty payments, because this deal seriously undervalued the product. They are currently in due diligence with a partner for this package.

they are also trying to renogiate the terms of the deal with Glaxo for Paxil CR, looking for an increased share of the revenues. they also have a very long product pipeline at various stages of development.

the likelihood of a takeover in my opinion is not as high as often muted. the main reason for me thinking this is that they have several deals with a variety of pharma partners and a fair deal of this would need to be unravelled if they were taken over.

the short term looks very positive. Personally I sold half my holding yesterday at 68.5p and am looking to buy back in, hopefully below 60p. The pulomanry deal will be very positive for the share price.

Once this deal is signed, it will then be clearer as to a profit forecast for this and next year - these do not currently exist as the company refused to issue guidelines until the deals had been signed (learning from previous failures of promising the earth).

In the long term this is a winner, but in the short term is very volatile and has been a short term traders stock for quite a while. the pipeline is strong, the deals are starting to come through. However, they still need to convince the city of their ability to run the company successfully and deliver repeatable profits before it will achieve the rating its pipeline will eventually merit.

Over 2/3 years it is possible to see these shares at 2 or even 3, though a lot of investors have been saying that for the last 5 years. IMHO it will come good, and it could currently be on the verge of a re-rating if they can win the city round, but it will continue to be volatile in the short term. If buying in DYOR!!!!! and be prepared to wait.

cheers fundy,,i`ll look in to it,,its not something that i would normally select,i didnt think it had been around that long. i no theres been a lot of intrest in this from brokers,in the last 12/18 months but there seems more to this than meets the eye. i`ve followed this share recently,,say about 12 months
it first caught my eye when there antidepressant PAXIL was first mooted, if i remember the price then is roughly the same as the price now.lots of up beat news,if the price falls to levels of about 0.60 i`ll buy and wait, regards dave , cheers for the info.. ps i`am off to hunt in the loft theres about 5 years shares mags ,,investors chronicle up there.......

Gowrie-Smith`s departure may well be the start of good news that the city will enjoy - target 90p by end of year.

Oakapples

Personally think your target is achievable but I feel we will now drift sideways until the pulmonary deal is finally signed. When that will be who knows with SKPs track record but should be within the next three months imho. This deal will enable people to sensibly forecast this yr and next and we should start to see this value reflected in the shareprice. Until then still jam tomorrow as far as the city is concerned.

A non executive director increasing his holding by 50% cant do any harm !!

Interesting webcast with Michael Ashton on rival site this pm.

My take on it was as follows:

the pulmonary deal is still in due diligence but it will happen, its just a case of who and when

emphasis on moving away from milestone payments to royalties

the company are more likely to be acquisitive than acquired

+ve opportunities for the long term in Japan (esp Pulmonary products)

Still in discussions with Glaxo re: Paxil CR royalties

To me it was a very positive interview!

Any news on this stock are we still waiting for a deal.

Still waiting whilst the share price is now below where it was for the first 2 announcements! Appears a lot of those who subscribed to the recent bond issue have sold their shares to purchase the bonds creating the recent stock overhang. News of the pulmonay deal cant come quick enough though with SKPs track record dont hold your breath - its over a year now since the pulmonary deal was first mentioned!!! Could go even lower on half year results in sept which will show losses unless the deal comes before or at the same time!

Morning all holders and whats with this skp,there is not much interest in it ,even at this level,what level will it take to bring the people back,, below 50 ??.
In a market that is on the way up,in the last few months/skp is on the way down,does that say it all ??

Why the drop on massive turnover (no rns)? On many peoples watchlist for 2005.

Kivver

the 15m trade was placed into the market at 7% below close and this dragged the price right down. Many rumours doing the rounds as to what the trade was (and the one for 2.6m soon after) though most likely is that DKW were involved on one side of the trade, and imho a hedge fund shorting on the other