http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

I think GKP will be sliding from here.

money/mouth or (more likely) hyleo/humbug

We'll see the sp. That's what counts.

the market never lies, but over what period are you now talking and down to what level do you think?

the chart is certainly far from pretty, but will 200 form a support of any substance?

probably foolishly - falling knife syndrome and all that stuff! - i have just topped up at 201.75 even though the order book is heavily in favour of sellers

So why do it then, if all the indicators are telling you to stay away? Sub 200p is likely, imo, though it's only really a psychological barrier as chart support is lower than that.

because i am not always as disciplined as i should be and readily preach to others :-)
however, i still reckon that this is one of the better punts in what will always be a key if volatile region

The Court Case brought by Excalibar has been deleyed until Wednesday,will cause some volitilty imo? As far as the Bond option,in excess of 270p with 2017 cut off,approx loan rate 6.25%.

1st payments from ICG.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6E8L8B4520121008?sp=true

as it stands, the knife has been very safely caught! :-) ...... prob helped by this ....

IEA predicts boom for Iraq’s oil industry
Iraq’s oil output is to more than double by the end of the decade, and by the 2030s it will be the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, according to an in-depth study by the International Energy Agency.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, told the Financial Times ahead of the launch of the report on Tuesday, that Iraq’s oil production would be “crucial for the health of the global economy”. He said Iraq would account for 45 per cent of the anticipated growth in global oil supply over the current decade.

From the Telegraph.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum and its colourful chief executive Todd Kozel face a high court battle this week in a long-running dispute with a former US special forces soldier over Iraqi oil assets.

Excalibur Ventures, which is based in the US and run by former Green Beret Rex Wempen, claims it is entitled to an interest of as much as 30pc in Gulf Keystone’s assets in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq.

The complex and high-profile case will begin on Wednesday and is likely to be closely watched.

Excalibur has said it entered into a “collaboration agreement” with Texas Keystone in February 2006 giving it close to a third of any fields that were won in joint bids.

Texas is owned by Mr Kozel, chairman and chief executive of Aim-listed Gulf Keystone, and his two brothers.

From another board,make of this what you will?


Despite being a LTH I rarely post on the board as I am not knowledgable enough to do so, so I just watch!
However some of the better and more comprehensive posts today have listed a good deal of considered information and 'on the spot detail' so, perhaps consideration and thought could be given to the following?

I have direct contact with personel in Kurdistan, and talking this morning, the opinion there is that GKP are holding back certain information, possibly because of the cc. Soon a reapraisal of Shaikan etc will be issued, but in the meantime it is believed that the KRG is 'desperate' to get the oil out of the ground and GKP is nowhere big enough to do that; it is estimated some 200+ wells will be required in the area.There are a lot of 'big' players hovering out there, but the main ones suggested at present are, Exxon, Total and Sinopec
and the opinion is that there is no way GKP will be able/allowed to 'Go it Alone'
So apart from the cc, why are we waiting??

The C Case has been delayed by a further day and will now commence tomorrow at 10 30am.

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO_2012_Iraq_Energy_OutlookFINAL-1.pdf

Page 60 and from that page,

In the case of the Shaikan field, contract-holder Gulf Keystone estimates that full field development may cost up to $10 billion (they hope to reach initial production of 100 kb/d through investment of around $500 million). As long as there is no certainty that future output can be converted into a reliable revenue stream, investment will, at best, be made only in small increments. Our projections for oil from the KRG area (included in “North” in Table 2.3) see production rising to between 500-800 kb/d in 2020 and 750 kb/d-1.2 mb/d in 2035.

Seems the C Case has been delayed yet again,Monday the 15th is the latwst date mentioned?

http://www.kurdiu.org/en/hawal/?pageid=111615

Kurdistan Parliament...preliminary reading for two laws of oil

Kurdistan Parliament , Wednesday, conducted the first reading of the draft law fund imports of oil and gas in the province and the law of Kurdistan Company to detect and investment oil KEPC, and approved the draft law on the protection of forests and to vote on the Fund help people with cancer and chronic diseases.

A media adviser to the President of the Parliament of Kurdistan (Tariq Jawhar) in a statement to "Shafaq News"said that "the parliament in its regular session Wednesday conducted the preliminary reading of the draft laws in the field of oil."

"> Powered by IST's"> Powered by IST's

looks as though i may well have beaten the odds in catching the falling knife, but very early days still

We do seem to be creeping up,but still a little volitillity. Looking at the chart i think 230p needed for a golden cross,who knows might be sooner than expected? I'm wondering why the C Case is being put back,a posible settlement,maybe? all speculation of course for which only time will tell.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1147073.ece


Green Beret goes to war over oil

A soldier is taking his fight for a share of Kurdistan’s resources to court
Danny Fortson Published: 14 October 2012 Sunday Times

Accused: Todd Kozel
WHEN the email pinged into his inbox, Rex Wempen’s heart sank. The former Green Beret had spent 18 months putting together a huge oil deal in Kurdistan, northern Iraq. It had finally been agreed, but as he read the message, the terrible truth struck him: his partner had cut him out.

On that November morning five years ago, of course, the billions the deal would generate were just a dream. Nobody knew how much — if any — oil lay beneath the craggy hills of Iraq’s forgotten north.

Today, the answer is clear: a lot. More, in fact, than anyone could have imagined. And arguably nobody has done better out of the Kurdish oil boom than Todd Kozel, Wempen’s former partner.

Kozel, a bluff Texan, runs Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which with a market value of £1.8 billion is one of the largest companies on AIM — thanks entirely to the enormous finds in Kurdistan.

Wempen claims that Kozel would not have struck it rich if he had not brought him the opportunity. Tomorrow, the opening arguments in Wempen v Kozel, one of Britain’s biggest corporate legal battles, will be heard in the High Court in London.

At stake is what Wempen claims he is contractually owed — a 30% stake of Gulf Keystone’s Kurdish assets, worth at least £950m.

But the 12-week trial will not only determine who owns how much of Gulf Keystone. It will also provide a glimpse into the chaos Kurdistan unleashed when it flung open its doors to western firms, who fought tooth and nail for a piece of an old-fashioned oil boom.

According to court documents, Wempen and Kozel met in December 2005, two-and-a-half years after America invaded Iraq. By then, Wempen was an old hand in Iraq. He had retired from the military in the 1990s but re-enlisted after the September 11 attacks, serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. After he left the services for a second time, he stayed on in Baghdad as a consultant.

As the city descended into violence, he moved to Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan which, by comparison, was peaceful. The semi-autonomous region had agreed to stay in a larger federal Iraq, but wanted greater control over its destiny. That meant its oil.

Generous terms were offered to entice explorers but none of the industry’s heavyweights took the bait. The government in Baghdad disagreed with the Kurds’ interpretation of their powers and threatened to blacklist any company that dealt with them.

For those brave, or foolish enough to try, Kurdistan was a golden opportunity, but Wempen was no oil man. A contact put him in touch with Ali Al-Qabandi, a director at Gulf Keystone and Kozel’s right-hand man. In court papers, Kozel admits that until he met Wempen, he had no inkling that Kurdistan was about to open up. Just two months later, in February 2006, the two men signed the “collaboration agreement” that is at the heart of their dispute.

Kozel had started in the oil business with his brothers, running Texas Keystone. He listed Gulf Keystone in London, but in the oil world, it was a tiddler.

Kurdistan was a ticket to the big time. The partners agreed to seek oil concessions there. Wempen’s firm, Excalibur Ventures, would be entitled to 30%, while Texas Keystone had rights to 70%. Crucially, Kozel had the right to transfer some of Texas Keystone’s stake to Gulf Keystone.

In June that year, they flew to Kurdistan to meet Ashti Hawrami, the oil minister.

According to Gulf Keystone’s defence, the meeting did not go well. Hawrami told Wempen he had “created an unfavourable impression among a number of individuals within the [Kurdistan government] as a result of his failure to deliver promises previously made”.

Kozel did not cut Wempen loose, though. On the contrary, they continued to work together over the next year.

The partners zeroed in on the Shaikan field, and by July 2007 a deal was close. According to court documents, Gulf Keystone sent Wempen an email containing a draft production contract for Shaikan. It named Texas Keystone, Gulf Keystone and Excalibur as parties to the deal. On October 9, with negotiations reaching the final stages, Texas Keystone sent Wempen an updated version.

Less than four weeks later, on November 6, Kozel announced the deal to the world. Gulf Keystone was named lead partner in the consortium that had won exclusive rights to Shaikan. Excalibur was not mentioned.

Gulf Keystone argues that Wempen should not have been surprised by Excalibur’s exclusion. This is because on August 6, 2007, Kurdistan passed its first oil law. It required developers to prove they were foreign, had the financial capability to proceed and a track record of “good corporate citizenship”.

Gulf Keystone alleges that Excalibur — that is, Wempen and his younger brother Eric, a tax attorney who worked at UBS, the investment bank — fulfilled none of the above.

Kurdistan’s new rules, in effect, disqualified Excalibur. What’s more, Kozel claims he was told to get rid of Wempen.

Kozel says that he met Hawrami, “in or around late July or early August [2007]” at a London hotel, and the minister told him that, “he would need to submit a [contract] without Excalibur’s name on it ... for the concession to be granted”.

Kozel has another line of defence. The original “collaboration agreement” was between Texas Keystone, where Kozel owned a one-third stake, and Excalibur.

When Kozel unveiled the Shaikan deal, it was Gulf Keystone — not Texas Keystone — that took the biggest share, with 75%. Mol, the Hungarian oil group, had 20%, while Texas Keystone took a 5% interest. Though its share of the costs would be covered by Gulf Keystone.

Why did Texas Keystone — the prime signatory to the venture with Excalibur — end up with a small, passive stake? Apparently, it decided that the “risk of participating ... outweighed the rewards”, according to documents filed with the court.

Kozel, who is executive chairman and a shareholder of Gulf Keystone, acknowledges that staff from both companies worked on the negotiations that led to the Shaikan deal. He insists, though, that Texas Keystone was “entirely separate from and independent of Gulf Keystone”.

Texas Keystone simply had a change of heart, he has argued. The deal was too risky. It was not, however, for Gulf Keystone and as a separate entity it had no obligations to Excalibur. So goes the argument.

It will be up to the judge to decide whether that reasoning holds water. The case has hung like a cloud over Gulf Keystone for years. This week Wempen, who has stayed in the shadows, will finally have his day in court this.

END.