.

Pretty similar picture every day now, dip down in the morning and early afternoon and recovery end of the day.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/24607/broker-roundup-rockhopper-exploration-universal-coal-chariot-oil-gas-kentz-24607.html

Broker Roundup: Rockhopper Exploration, Universal Coal, Chariot Oil & Gas, Kentz

Friday, January 14, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft

Evolution Securities analyst David Farrell featured Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) in the brokers First Take morning note.

Farrell said: While Rockhopper has said that the 14/10-3 well is an exploration well it is targeting the northern lobe of the Sea Lion fan and should it work we believe this will start to validate the upper resource estimates of the original Sea Lion discovery.

The RPS report published immediately after the Sea Lion discovery suggested an upper resource estimate in excess of 500mmbls.

Based upon a 200mmbls discovery we believe that the Sea Lion discovery is worth c350p/sh suggesting the market is ascribing just 31p/sh to exploration which we believe is worth c180p/sh on a risked basis.

If this first Sea Lion well works, we expect a significant leg up in the share price.

Charlie Sharp, equity analyst at City broker Charlie Sharp also commented on the news.

We expect considerable further exploration and appraisal work beyond that, dependent to some degree on the outcome of the next two wells.

We believe that Rockhopper presents the best opportunity among the FI players for further positive share-price movement in the near term, although the risks remain considerable, Sharp said.

Fox-Davies emphasised that whilst the well is being drilled near the Sea Lion discovery well, there are distinct differences between the two parts of the Sea Lion system.

The new well is located to the North of the discovery well and will test the northern lobe of the Sea Lion fan complex which looks, from seismic mapping, to be fed from a different sediments source, the broker said.

We understand the seismic attributes are similar to that at the discovery well location, hence limiting the risk, although the 8 kilometre distance is a large outstep from that data point and reservoir/seal risk is far from negligible.".................

Interesting couple of posts by kiwi over at AFN, and I do think the comment on over a billion barrels recoverable just from Sea Lion is very possible, not fantasy.

7Kiwi - 15 Jan'11 - 19:59 - 14480 of 14487

I've been doing a bit of digging to see if I can work out where 14/10-3 is and what S2 might be. Of course there's an element of guesswork, so I can't be certain but there's a certain amount of fun in guessing.

First a graphic of Sea Lion taken from the "volumetric assessment":

I've drawn an 8km line in a NW direction from the Sea Lion discovery well to work out an estimate of the location of the current 14/10-3 explo well.



Second, here's a picture taken from elsewhere in the same volumetric assessment document. This shows a very rough schematic of the main Sea Lion fan and the deeper Sea Lion fan. It also shows in blue another fan that they think may merge into the lower fan.



With a bit of squinting I think it is possible to see that the 14/10-3 well may just be clipping this blue fan, and hence the blue fan is quite possibly S2. Further, in Figure 17 of the volumetric assessment document it describes a "high amplitude seismic event" of equivalent age to the lower Sea Lion fan.

Trouble is, I'm not sure the "blue fan" is quite big enough. The P10 size of the Lower Sea Lion fan is 30km2, and by inspection, the blue fan looks a bit smaller, so I don't know where the size of 46km2 comes from. Indeed the P10 estimate of Sea Lion itself is only 55km2, and that is muich bigger than the blue fan.

I guess we have to wait a bit for proper answers.

Volumetric Assessment doc for reference:

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/Volumetric_Assessment_of_Sea_Lion_2010.pdf



7Kiwi - 15 Jan'11 - 20:06 - 14481 of 14487

Also a bit of looking at the license maps leads me to beleive that the gap between the southern boundary of the current RKH 3-D and the southern boundary of their license is some 5km. If SL is to extend into DES's acreage, then I thik it would be at least twice the size of the current P10 estimate of 55km2, which would suggest it contains over 1.2bn recoverable barrels (plus the lower fan plus whatever else they find).

Nice to think about, but probably not realistic.

.

Rumour has it the seller is now clear, whether that is correct or not who knows, we will see next week if there is a strong move upwards with less available stock on offer.

Pros - Was that dogging or digging? Squinting or Squirting the blue fan. Yours confused!

confused.com

Where the 3D is being done. Page 11 of the presentation below :

http://www.polarcus.com/assets/0000/1209/Polarcus_Company_Presentation_SEB_12_Jan.pdf


Here is the blow up of the chart on page 11 :

Interesting RKH are doing 3D on Weddell down there.

Overlaid the 3D map from Polarcus with the NFB prospect/license map and you can now see where the 3D is being done in relation to the targets.




.

It would be interesting to know who is paying for the 3D up north outside the present license area's.

Is it split 50/50 RKH or ARG or are RKH paying for that 100%, and obviously keeping the results very much to themselves for future reference/license applications ?

Updated Falklands Government wesbite for mineral resources - better layout.

http://www.falklands-oil.com/

.

Useful post from King Khan at LSE

IMO, Update from Drill is expected in 3rd week of drill commence day. I am expecting update on 31 Jan or 1st week of Feb.

Remember Sea Lion (TD: 2700m, Result in 20 days, initial expected day of result wsa 35 days),

Ernest: (TD: 2400m, Result in 25 days, Expected days: 30 days)

Rachel (TD: 2850m, Result: 18 days, expected days: 35 days)

Rachel North (TD: 3050m, result: 20 days, Expected days: 35 days)

Jacinta. (TD: 1300m result: 10days, Expected days: 20-30days)

Dawn (TD: 1670m, result: 16 days, expected: 30days), Provided that Office was closed for fews days on XMAS, BANK HOLIDAY.

On avg. Falkland drill rate is : 134m/day. On same drill rate, Current well is expected to reach TD in 22 days. (07 feb 2011)

Two and a half weeks to go then.

This ongoing exploration drill does have the potential to be a "game changer". Whilst we can all appreciate its outside the defined discovery area of Sea Lion, should it come in with success it expands Sea Lion into being a potential "Billion recoverable barrel" size.

That is a game changer and one which will have serious repercussions for the Falkland Islands as well as Rockhopper (RKH) (and to a lessor extent Argos (ARG))

Worth noting this from Spiegel in 2004, one wonder how quick they will try to move in, in this respect I am glad Rockhopper now has 250 million cash, to protect against the oil majors trying to push their way in with poor priced bids or farm in attempts. :

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,334165,00.html

"...........The Falkland Islands deposits aren't even mentioned in the lists of known oil reserves kept by the oil giants Shell, BP and Exxon. These multinationals, known in industry parlance as the majors, already have their hands full in regions such as West Africa, the Brazilian coastal waters and the Caspian Sea. Until now, searching for black gold in the rough and deep seas (up to 10,000 feet) of the South Atlantic seemed too complex and expensive, as well as being a highly speculative proposition. It's a risk the major corporations prefer to hand over to smaller oil exploration outfits. After all, if the venture turns out to be unsuccessful, the majors won't have incurred any costs. But if the prospectors make a strike, they'll be quick to move in.

Perhaps 10 to 14 days to news now.

I expect the BS rumour mill will start cranking into gear now as the short term pump and dumpers start trying to spike the price, along with shorters who want the price to spike before putting shorts on for results.

Therefore expect lots of nonsense across the other internet BB's about 7" liner, coring, oil shows, people talking in bars, gas kicks etc...

Do not get sucked into it IMO, either buy and hold for results, or do not buy and wait and see - don't let the pump and dump rumour crews suck people in is my view. Going to be lots of false rumours spread around in the coming days/weeks.

Nothing exciting, just the price rebounding a little as it was becoming oversold imo.

At this stage they could, if there has been no hold ups, now be drilling into Sea Lion main fan, there are perhaps 4 other targets to TD (Sea Lion Lower, S2 and also identified seismic events).

So, given they could now be into Sea Lion upper main fan, one should expect the rumour mill to go into overdrive very soon.

From my post early on this morning at ADFN :




Sea Lion Main fan +
Teardrop (Sea Lion Lower ? ) +
S2 +
Perhaps 2 to 4 more fans from S2 to TD.

Next week ?


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/25026/rockhopper-explorations-new-sea-lion-well-nears-target-horizons--25026.html


Rockhopper Explorations new Sea Lion well nears target

Friday, January 28, 2011 by Jamie Ashcroft

Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) may report findings from its latest oil exploration well in the Falkland as early as next week, according to research by Evolution Securities.

David Farrell, oil and gas analyst at Evolution, reckons the new Sea Lion well could potentially reach its two target horizons at some stage over the weekend.

Rockhopper spudded the 14/10-3 exploration well 8 kilometres north west of the Sea Lion discovery on 13 January. This new well is testing a previously undrilled northern lobe of the Sea Lion fan system, outside the Sea Lion Discovery Area about 8 kilometres away from the original discovery well.

Looking back at previous drilling rates in the North Falkland Basin suggests that Rockhopper may potentially be reaching the two target horizons of its current 14/10-3 well at some stage this weekend, Farrell said.

This means an update from the company may come as early as next week.

The original Sea Lion well put the north Falkland basin on the map as a credible frontier oil play when it struck oil early in May.

Back then Rockhopper set the discoverys recoverable resource estimate at 242 million barrels (mmbbls) of oil, and it also noted the discoverys significant upside potential". In September flow testing on the Sea Lion well returned a rate of around 2,000 barrels of oil per day (boepd) for approximately 18 hours. The test peaked at 2,304 bopd.

Since then however Desire Petroleums (LON:DES) string of unsuccessful exploration wells have dented what was becoming an increasingly compelling oil boom in the south Atlantic.

Now with investor attention firmly fixed on the only confirmed oil discovery in the new frontier, a successful result from the new Sea Lion well could give the Falklands oil story a breath of fresh air.

Indeed Farrell reckons a positive drilling result could add between 200 and 300 pence to Rockhoppers share price - which currently stands at around 360 pence per share. He highlights that the success of a second well could take the Sea Lion resource to 500 million barrels.

Investing prior to well results is obviously very risky however we value the Sea Lion discovery, at 200 million barrels, at 351 pence suggesting there is some decent downside protection, Farrell said.

The analyst adds: If successful, in addition to the direct benefit to Rockhopper, a 500 million barrel field development becomes a much more attractive proposition to an international oil company (IOC) or national oil company (NOC) and should therefore lessen the commercialisation discount applied to all companies in the Falklands.

It is clear that the weeks and months ahead will be crucial for the AIM-listed firms exploring for oil in the north basin - Rockhopper, Desire Petroleum and Argos Resources (LON:ARG).

Alongside Rockhoppers drilling results, these companies are also likely to get a boost from a widespread seismic exploration programme across all three companies' acreage in the basin.

The results of the two separate seismic programmes, using different vessels, are expected early in spring. Work is already underway on the first programme, which partners Rockhopper and Desire. Argos and Rockhopper are partnered for the other seismic programme.