http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

panto - capitulation or not - I say not, but it's unimportant - the little chunk I bought back a couple of days ago is now doing very nicely

Good rise, more to come...value will show....

">

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/fixed-income-investor-meetings/201403190928546676C/

he above RNS.


"The Company's immediate focus remains on achieving its target of 40,000 bopd of production capacity from PF-1 and PF-2 in 2014, which will allow further expansion of export crude oil sales. The Company estimates that achieving this level of production capacity at Shaikan, as well as continuing planned expenditure at Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel, will require capital expenditure of approximately US$210 million in 2014."

BRIEF- Gulf Keystone eyes debt funding of $250 mln
19 Mar 2014 - 09:39
March 19 (Reuters) – Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd :
A debt offering of up to US$250 million in accordance with REG S/144A is expected to follow, subject to market conditions
Mandated Deutsche Bank, pareto securities to arrange series of fixed income investor meetings in US, Europe, Asia from 20 March
Immediate focus remains on achieving target of 40,000 bopd of production capacity from PF-1 and PF-2 in 2014
Estimates will require capital expenditure of approximately US$210 million in 2014
Expects to seek additional funding via a debt offering of up to US$250 million
Anticipated to require further capital expenditure of approximately US$340 million through 2014 to the end of 2015
Source text for Eikon: [ID:nRSS6676Ca]
For more news, please click here [GKP.L] ((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20
7542 7717)

On 13 March 2014, Gulf Keystone released an Operational and Corporate Update and published the first third party audit of the Company's reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources for its petroleum interests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq comprising the Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks. The Company continues to maintain current stable production and sales levels at an average of 10,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from the Company's first Shaikan production facility (PF-1). In addition, Shaikan-4, the third production well, recently tied-in to PF-1, has been flowing at up to 6,000 bopd in the recent week.

http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/4534/considered-thoughts-on-gulf-keystone#sthash.m1JNPpbP.uxfs

Considered Thoughts on Gulf Keystone

BY LUCIAN MIERS — WEDNESDAY 19 MARCH 2014

Much has been written on Gulf Keystone (GKP) since last Thursday when it released a Competent Persons Report (CPR) and provided an operational update. I have been warning about this company for a while now and have no wish to gloat as pretty much every private investor in the land is now sitting on nasty losses as it languishes at multi year lows.

Unfortunately these low levels are pretty much what the CPR rates the company to be worth, hence the company’s constant underlining of the “conservative” nature of its content.

I delegated the reading of the full CPR to a friend who is an oil man and instead watched the presentation and Q&A which, it was helpfully pointed out, was designed to be understood by private client duffers as well as the brainy analysts in the room.

Todd Kozel kicked the show off and, having clearly been instructed to keep it brief, assured us all how “baseline” the CPR numbers were but his usual smarmy swagger was tinged with a slightly crestfallen air, as if saddened and hurt by the market’s savage reaction to his update.

COO John Gerstenlauer and geologist John Stafford made up the bulk of the hour basically trashing yet again the “cold steely glare” of the audit and stressing how much it had undervalued the company’s worth. It was interesting that they particularly disagreed with the valuation put on the Akri Bijeel asset in which Gulf has a 20% interest and which has been for sale for around three years, with no buyers yet coming forward despite mention (getting on for a year ago) of several interested parties and a prediction that its book value of $65 million would be comfortably exceeded.

The Q&A consisted of a lot of analysts, almost all former bulls of the stock asking a lot of pretty feeble questions. The good questions such as how much money the company needed and how it would be raised were not satisfactorily answered by FD Ainsworth who sounded somewhat out of his depth. One guy had the temerity to ask why they hadn’t been paid yet for the 690,000 barrels of oil already delivered (interesting that we are given the number of barrels sold and even the weight but not the price) He was curtly informed that it would come “in the near future”. The word “complex” was used a lot.

What is not complex is the reality that what we were all lead to believe was the most exciting, stunningly cheap oil investment in the history of the world is in fact a fairly pedestrian play in an unpredictable environment which needs a great deal of money ASAP hence the move from AIM to a full list and therefore the need for the dreaded CPR.

If ever the much muted bid for Gulf is going to arrive it should be now. Only this time the much mentioned £8 per share seems unlikely. 140p would probably do the trick. I would not be buying now for such an outcome as the stock could well drift further as the funding issues are addressed. That said, I have closed my short as the risk reward is no longer compelling.

Well I don't agree......all that is is a shorter....can't say I'm impressed with any of the so-called tipsters.....this company and it's major discovery is way undervalued...yes they have to raise funds.....isn't it funny that these "I told you so's" appear after the event (the drop), or they tip so many = you do not know which one to choose....they take an average.........always the same story...and then later ; oh ! look such and such a share has done this and that; told you so forgetting that they tipped about forty others as well...all in the gloom......Anyway : this one is for the long term....to keep until next year....capital raised will bring stability.....can't help feeling that these are people that have missed out on the original discovery...or others....pathetic...I'm just hoping that it is a placing with not too much dilution....but even if there was : the sp will rebound like a rubber ball !...

Right thats me out, I'll keep it on watch for now.

http://announce.ft.com/Detail/?DocKey=1323-11898273-1R4PD668JF249Q7MVGCUI8CDJA

How this is allowed to happen is beyond me. The RNS could hardly have been read before they dropped the price. Criminal.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/publication-of-prospectus/201403201540068295C/


Probably dropped on news,looking for those stops?

here's the low (very low) down ......

Says group does not have sufficient working capital for present requirements, for at least 12 months from the date of the prospectus
Says depends on existing cash, of US$82 million at 31 January, with production revenues from its interest in the Shaikan Block
Says existing cash resources may be enhanced over next 12 months
Says if none of these events occur, would expect the company to require additional working capital by the end of May 2014
Says would be expected to have a shortfall of approximately $20 million by the end of May 2014
Says Lord Guthrie has stepped down as deputy chairman, to be replaced by Jeremy Asher with immediate effect
Says shortfall would increase through the working capital period by $10 million-$15 million per month on average until Jan. 31 2015


how on earth can the company then move from AIM to the main market with such a cartload of manure in tow?

I can't see what the problem is ?....every company needs working capital...with a massive oil discovery under their belts they will be able to raise I reckon 200 million dollars comfortably.....it will dilute of course the shareholder base but it will bring stability going forward.....and production will increase as we go along....patience...

tlars on iii

--------

Statement by Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani: Oil export initiative by the Kurdistan Regional Government
THU, 20 MAR 2014 18:22 | KRG.org

The negotiations with Baghdad on oil export and budgetary matters are ongoing. These negotiations have not yet resulted in any acceptable agreements.

As a goodwill gesture the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has offered to make a contribution to Iraq oil pipeline exports to give the negotiations the maximum chance of success.

The KRG contribution to oil export will be one hundred thousand (100,000) barrels per day effective from 1st April 2014, and will continue while the negotiations are proceeding in a positive direction.

The KRG has not set any preconditions for this initiative. In the coming weeks, the KRG will seek a full settlement with Baghdad on the way in which the KRG’s oil exports and oil sales revenues are managed and controlled.

The KRG shall at all times preserve its rights as defined in the permanent Constitution of Iraq.

From a oilman,
---------------------------------------------------------
,

1/ Look at Rig 842s recent photo ie we are testing (thats if recently took).

2/ Look at the bottom left hand corner at the tubulars , I'm unable to see them clearly but a small size , they are either a temporary test string or 3 1/2 drill pipe . So if the first they are very near to if not testing !, or the liner is about to be ran and that drill pipe is to run through the liner to drill the rat hole ie final section of the well to be drilled .

3/ The Central piece of equipment is Coiled Tubing ( google what you do with this !), the Vessels nearby are surface Gel Tanks .

4/ So this equipment is costly and can be lengthy to procure , rig up , test and run .


Remember these wells are fire and forget wells ie vertical so even though you can drill via them with a turbine and swivel BGA that they would not be used for that purpose .

This just about sums it up imo.


From Hub on iii:-

I'm still in a daze - and cannot believe the Bod's have left GKP shareholders literally in the lap of the gods.

Speechless. Just about everything I feared has come true.

Shareholders are now left with a ticking time bomb to contend with.

Here's what can diffuse it.

1. Sort $250mln in bonds/debt. In the prospectus they have given a deadline of 'by the end of April'. This is mostly likely due to MAY being the month where they have not cash left.

2. By memory - it didn't take very long to sort the CB's but then these were pre-planned and run by MC and not DB.

3. If they can't sort bonds, then they are taking about equity related finance such as share placings, sera's etc etc. If it comes to that, it's going to be very ugly and dilutive.

4. Asset sales. They keep mentioning AB sale like it's still an option. The cpr booked pretty low numbers andMOL are still working on several wells. Who knows?

Quite how they can achieve a listing on March 25th is anyones guess. Surely inadequate finance means the siting cannot go ahead. However, it seems to suggest that they will move on 25th to standard listing and then update on finance near end of April or earlier.

Now - imho if GKP bod's and DB think the bonds are a goer, then surely they would have tested the water before putting themselves in this tight spot. They postponed the standard listing last year and could have easily moved the listing to June or July and sorted funding before that date.

Logic just goes out of the window which makes me concerned that they (or some directors) may be seeking a mates rates equity raise. This would be tantamount to a manipulation of the share imho as the only reason an equity raise is potentially on the table is because GKP bod's put shareholders and the company into that tight spot. It was voluntary! No says you have to move off AIM. You can postpone the move! As GKP have already done in 2013.

If the bonds get sorted - then a major cloud is removed and the going concern issues disappear for around 10 to 11 months.

Now if you wanted to sp to bounce back and to get the company back on track - then you'd announce bond deal sorted before or on march 25th wouldn't you?

If we enter April with no bond deal in sight - then you can imagine the nerves and sp gyrations.

If that is what 'they' are after - then it's very crooked.

The entire way this process has been handled has been to scare pi's in my opinion.

I wrote a post a while ago about shareholders 'A" and shareholders 'b'.

Shareholder 'B" is being thrown to the wolves while Shareholder 'A' gets the nice low entry point.

Gokana are an example of a 'shareholder A' and pi's are shareholder category b.

I wonder whether Mehmet at genel flogged his 2.3mln shares (£23mln+) with the view to investing in another Kurd player that might be cheap? He does like a good trade - apparently.

A bond deal Rns tomorrow would do wonders to sooth some nerves.

If we enter April with no news, then it's going to test some nerves.

All the best to the real genuine investors.

Those that supported TK and accused those that were trying to help 'as bashers' etc should apologise at the very least.

HUB

The United States welcomes the decision by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to begin oil exports of 100,000 barrels-per-day on April 1 through the Iraqi-Turkey pipeline pursuant to existing export arrangements with the Government of Iraq (GOI). We further welcome the commitment from the KRG to ensure that these exports continue in parallel to ongoing talks towards a framework agreement on the management of the hydrocarbon sector.

The United States urges the joint GOI-KRG committee, comprising experts from the GOI’s Ministry of Oil and the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources, to meet and assess future month-to-month export targets based on technical capacities and in a manner consistent with the Iraqi Constitution.

Regarding the ongoing discussions towards a general framework agreement, the United States notes the progress that has been made in recent months including general principles that would allow for all Iraqis to benefit fairly and equitably from anticipated increases in oil production and export. We will continue to serve as a neutral broker and facilitator to the extent desired by the leadership of both the GOI and the KRG, consistent with our long-term partnership with Iraq as outlined by the Strategic Framework Agreement

By Tom Winnifrith — Friday 21 March 2014

This is not a question that the legions of Gulf Keystone (GKP) shareholders want to consider but they should now accept that this is a possibility – however remote. How they must wish they had followed grossly overpaid CEO Tod Kozel in dumping all their stock last year.

The position of Gulf is not now about fundamentals but about game theory. There are a number of parties involved – let me elaborate.

1. The company. If it does not raise $250 million PDQ via a bond issue it has a problem. As things stand it will go tits up by May such is its cashburn


2. The shareholders. These are a disparate bunch, largely legions of private investors. I am afraid they have a weak hand, indeed no hand in this poker game.


3. The $325 million bond holders. If Gulf runs out of cash they are its largest creditor. For what it is worth, as things stand, they effectively own the company. They must now be bitterly regretting having lent Gulf so much money for a paltry c8.5%. They must be worried that this company goes tits up and will do anything they can to stop that.


4. A potential bidder. I have never believed that a potential bidder would swoop but I will humour the Bulletin Board morons and pretend that, say, Genel is interested.



At this stage the conversation – as I outlined yesterday – is between The Company and its Bond Holders. No new (sane) bond investor is going to want to back Gulf whatever Coupon it offers. So Gulf is telling its existing bond holders “double up or you lose the lot.” My guess is that this is what will happen but the coupon Gulf pays will not be pretty. And that, I suggest, will not be very good for sentiment or the share price.

But there is another possible outcome. Let’s assume that Genel is interested. It need only approach the bond-holders and say “here is your get out of jail card” – do not back this issue, wait for Gulf to breach a covenant and we will buy your binds off you at par. We can then call in the bonds and get the company’s assets for just $325 million without having to pay equity investors a cent.

This is game theory and no-one knows if any bidder would try this on or indeed if there is anyone interested in Gulf’s assets.

My point is that the only players in this game with no cards to play are equity investors and my guess is that either way they will get screwed. The only question is how much they are screwed and it could, under one scenario, be absolute.