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URU hold 27.68 million shares(16.6%) in Kalahari Minerals(KAH) which hold a large stake in the Aussie company Extract(EXT) the holder of the licence to work the Rossing
South, which have turned out to be one of the largest uranium deposits in the world.
RIO who have the site are investing heavely in both companys and it seems will
make a take over bid in th not to distant future? A couple of posts which give an idea whats what,

Excerpts from the Hanson research note on Jan 29th 2009 relating to company valuation:


For the purpose of our valuation we have used the long term $80/lb price and the current $/� exchange rate of $1.40/�1.00. Other assumptions include:
� Cash � URU currently has �1.4m in cash (1.3p per share) and no debt. We believe that this is enough to fund the company�s activities until July/ Aug 2009

� Kalahari Minerals � The total market capitalisation of Kalahari Minerals is �77.83m. At the current share price of 43.5p, this makes Niger Uranium�s 27.68m shares worth �12.04m or 10.64p per share.

� Henkries project - Niger Uranium has an NPV15% for the project of US$150m before tax. Our own valuation based on the original 3.72Mlbs estimate is US$17.43m after tax. As no resource has been defined we apply a x0.6 discount to NPV, which equates to 4.89p per share for their 74% stake.

o If Niger Uranium can define an 11 Mlbs resource we calculate an NPV of $102.87m after tax or 28.83p per share again at a x0.6 discount for risk. Neither valuation includes any upside for the unsampled Henkries South.

� Niger project - We don�t believe that this is economic as a standalone project at this grade and tonnage. The grades are low but are typical for the region being similar to those at Imouraren and Arlit. However, with Niger Uranium continuing its exploration drilling with two rigs currently on site, the company could increase the tonnage significantly.

o With existing operations in the area including those of Areva and China Nuclear International Uranium Corp., we believe that the most likely scenario is that URU�s Niger project assets will be acquired by an existing producer. The Paladin (ASX:PDN) and Fusion Resources (ASX:FSN) deal in late December 2008 provided an indicated value to resources of US$1.97/resource lb. On this basis and factoring in assumed recoveries and a x0.5 discount due to the perceived risks in Niger, we arrive at a value of �2.35m or 2.1p per share for the Niger project.

� Argentina UrAmerica � This is more difficult to value as it is a private company. However, Niger paid $2.5m and 4,664,306 new shares for its interest which would value the stake at �2.3m or 2.06p per share.
Conclusion

Our total sum of parts value is 20.90p, which does not include any share holder dilution caused by any subsequent fund raisings. It also does not include any upside for Henkries North and South, the Niger exploration or expected upside in the value of the company�s Kalahari minerals stake when the full resource is announced by Extract Resources.

Given KAH's sp increase, the 27.68mln shares is currently worth 17.7p per share (at KAH = 72.5p), which would increase the valuation to 28.02p per share.

And - If they can get the 11 Mlbs resource from Hankries, then this would increase the sp to 51.96p per share.

So currently they are trading at a discount of 12p (or 75%) to the current mid price.


if RIO pay �5/lb of U based on the forsys/forrest deal then KAH holding in EXT would be worth around �300M. URU holding is worth around �45M at this price. by all accounts the grade at Rossing South is high grade and superior to the forsys/forrest U grade so a price equivalent to this deal is not pie in the sky in the slightest. In fact you could argue EXT should be asking more for its Rossing South asset


Right, here's what I reckon is going on.

EML is Dattels & Mellon's vehicle, aligned with URU (which they also have interests in).

There is a big battle on at EXT right now, to determine the Board composition. Whoever gains contol of EXT's Board will do the final negotiating with RIO (or a.n.other, e.g. Areva, Chinese, Russians - all may be interested, I understand) concerning either a sale or a JV to exploit Rossing South.

With over 40% of EXT's votes, KAH's votes are crucial in determining the outcome of that battle... so, whoever controls KAH effectively controls EXT. At present, IMV Dattels, Mellon & co control KAH via URU and EML. ISTM, from his statements and past actions, that Hohnen has aligned himself with them. When he said on Tuesday "Clearly certain Kalahari shareholders voiced the same concerns when they refused to endorse the potential merger between Extract and Kalahari over concerns that Rio Tinto could emerge with a controlling interest.", that's who the "certain shareholders" are. RIO are trying to dilute that control by buying KAH shares themselves. EML's move is a fightback to retain/strengthen Dattels, Mellon & co's position.

From RIO & Dattels' POV (and mine :0)) these shares are still cheap, so they don't mind paying up now to reinforce their positions for the endgame.

The last posts were c&p, from very capable investors.

A quick way to value URU's holdings in KAH is multiply its SP by 24.4%

http://www.freesharedata.com/eml


cyril

Bought in first thing under 25p, just got back to see 2x 1.1m sells so seller not done yet?

Could they be a roll over, a slight difference in the SP suggest maybe?
cyril

Busy today, almost 2m traded.
cyril

The Company was notified yesterday that on 3 June 2009 Amber Petroleum Limited
purchased 12.2 million shares of Niger Uranium representing approximately 10.8%
of the issued share capital of the Company.

And of their stratagy.

"The strategy is to identify and acquire interests in high quality prospects with the potential for significant returns to shareholders."

cyril

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--A struggle for control of one of the world's biggest undeveloped uranium reserves has emerged as one of the fiercest corporate skirmishes in recent times, and analysts expect more fireworks.

Extract Resources Ltd. (EXT.AU) has jumped eight-fold in value since December, as Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AU) built a 15.6% stake, and rival investors began to campaign for a greater say in the future of its Rossing South venture in the southern African nation of Namibia.

Interest in uranium has been ignited by Asian countries outlining plans to install vast amounts of nuclear power capacity in the coming decades, and European countries such as Sweden and the U.K. ending lengthy bans on new reactors.

China alone will likely build as many as 90 reactors over the next 20 years, its top energy official said recently.

Namibia, with around 5% of the world's known recoverable reserves of uranium, is being courted by several heavyweight players in the nuclear industry.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will begin a state-visit to Namibia Wednesday, and diplomats say discussions will include energy ties.

Rossing South is six kilometers away from the massive Rossing uranium mine that's jointly owned by Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AU) and the Namibian government, and which produced 8% of the world's uranium oxide in 2008.

Testing at Rossing South has turned up good results, indicating a potential resource that analysts say could exceed 250 million pounds of uranium oxide.

This has helped catapult Perth-based Extract's market capitalization to A$1.65 billion on the Australian Securities Exchange from A$200 million in December.

However, corporate activity has also driven the rally.

In the past year there has been an aborted takeover attempt for Extract; Rio Tinto and a company headed by London-based mining entrepreneur Stephen Dattels has turned up on Extract's share register; and two chairmen and now managing director Peter McIntyre, have left the Extract board.

Australia-based McIntyre's resignation last week came weeks after Extract's biggest shareholder, UK-based Kalahari Minerals PLC (KAH.LN), called a shareholder meeting to vote on his removal.

McIntyre said he left for personal reasons after five years in the job, but added: "There's been a lot going on with the company and, obviously, at the corporate level."

"I think the company is on a very good path, certainly with the development of our project over in Namibia."

Kalahari ousted Extract's former chairman Bob Buchan in February, also by calling a special shareholder meeting.

AIM-listed Kalahari tried to buy Extract outright last year, but its shareholders became concerned when Rio Tinto built stakes in Extract and Kalahari.

They called off the merger for fear Rio Tinto would take control of the fused group without having to pay a premium.



Predators Watching



Rio Tinto's investments, coming at a time when it was still seeking to bring down its debt burden, underscores its ambition to double its uranium output by 2013. It has a similar interest in Kalahari to its 15.6% stake in Extract.

"Rossing will work with Rio Tinto and Extract Resources to determine the benefits that might arise from a joint venture for development of Rossing South," Rio Tinto said in a report released on Rossing's Web site this month.

Rio Tinto is an obvious suitor for Extract due to its proximity to the Rossing mine, but other companies would likely be taking a look as well, said Brock Salier, a London-based analyst at Ambrian Capital.

"We think state interest will come from the Chinese, South Koreans and Indians, while private companies that must be looking closely include Cameco Corp. (CCJ)," he said.

Much will also depend on Dattels's vision for the company. He's been moving up Extract and Kalahari's share registers and holds 10.2% and 9.9% stakes in them, respectively, through companies like Polo Resources Ltd. (PRL.LN), which he chairs.

Dattels has an established track record in unlocking value from undeveloped uranium deposits. He founded UraMin Inc., which was sold to France's state-owned Areva SA for US$2.5 billion in 2007.

Another significant holder in Kalahari is AIM-listed Niger Uranium Ltd. (URU.LN) with a 15.6% stake. Its acting chief executive, Ian Stalker, was the former CEO of UraMin.

Extract said Thursday it has invited Dattels, Rio Tinto representative Chris McFadden and another Kalahari representative, most likely chairman Mark Hohnen, to join its board.

"Kalahari welcomes the invitation of Dattels and McFadden to the board and supports the involvement of Rio Tinto and Polo Resources in the development of Extract," Hohnen said in a statement Thursday.

Spokespeople for Polo Resources and Niger Uranium were unavailable for comment.

Paul Adams, a Melbourne-based analyst at DJ Carmichael, said Dattels and Kalahari are likely part of a team that wants either to develop Extract in their own right, or enjoy the spoils of a big takeover bid.

"When the Kalahari guys were unable to mount a successful takeover, the next best thing was to get somebody else in there to somehow get control of the company," Adams said.

Several companies, including Rio Tinto, Areva, Cameco or Chinese state interests will be eyeing Extract, he said.

Key updates for Rossing South are due in the coming weeks, with a possible "huge third-quarter positive newsflow looming", says Resource Capital Research analyst Tony Parry.

"The market is now starting to understand that Rossing South is shaping up to be one of the world's largest uranium deposits," says Parry, who has a Buy recommendation on Extract shares and A$7.50-A$8.00 price target versus their latest trade of A$6.81.

Extract has hired Rothschild Australia to do a strategic review of its business, which it said last week is "well advanced".



-By Ross Kelly, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-8272-4692; ross.kelly@dowjones.com
cyril

Hanson Westhouse recently reported :-

"Extract Resources is trading at an EV/lb of US$6.53 which we believe includes a premium for both the anticipated resource announcement for Zone 2 of Rossing South in August and current corporate interest. This is inline with the agreement between Mega Uranium Ltd (TSX: MGA), JAURD (the Japan Australia Uranium Resources Development Co. Ltd.) and ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU) for 35% of the 23.7Mlbs U3O8 (8.4Mlbs attributable) Lake Maitland project in Australia which has an EV/lb of US$5.9 per lb. We believe this is the M&A value of pre-development uranium in the ground. "

http://www.wametals.com.au/investors/research_pdfs/090713_hansonwesthouse.pdf




au$7.58 values the updated resource at us$4.84 per pound.

At us$5.9 per pound, EXT would have a share price of au$9.24

The value of Kalahari's EXT @ au$9.24 would be 2.14 per share


EXT @ au$9.24 gives a look-through value of :-
URU = 50.43p
EML = 11.89p
PRL = 4.07p
NWT = 15.90p (Canadian 28.74c)

cyril

Sum up of EXT's update.

MEDIA RELEASE

3rd August 2009

Preliminary cost estimates study confirms Rossing South's potential to be one of world's largest uranium mines

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS
Production rate 15.0 M tpa
Estimated head grade 487 ppm U3O8
Mill Recovery 92%
U3O8 production 14.8 M lbs / year (6.7 K tpa)
Project capital estimate US $704M
Production cost estimate US $23.60 /lb U3O8

Australian-based uranium mine development and exploration company, Extract Resources Limited (ASX/TSX: EXT) ("Extract or `the Company) today released the preliminary capital and operating cost estimates report which confirm the Rossing South project's potential to be one of the world's largest uranium mines. The report states that preliminary cost estimates on the granite hosted, uranium mineralisation at Rossing South in Namibia indicates that the project can support a viable open pit mining operation developed to feed a 15M tpa agitated tank sulphuric acid leach processing plant. Annual production has been estimated at 14.8M lbs U3O8 with capital costs estimated at US$704M and operating costs of US$23.60 per lb U3O8. Extract Resources Managing Director, Mr. Peter McIntyre, said "the preliminary cost estimates report indicates a conventional open pit mining operation with an agitated tank leach process plant is expected to support a profitable and sustainable mining operation for +20 years." "This report represents our base case study and we are continuing with our metallurgical testwork and engineering optimization that will consider other options including a heap-leaching component," he said. Namibia has outstanding infrastructure which would greatly assist the development of the Rossing South project. The project area is located about 55 kms east of the coastal town Swakopmund and north east of the deep water port of Walvis Bay. Equipment and materials for constructing and running the mine could be brought in through Walvis Bay. Mr McIntyre said "the availability of infrastructure combined with the confirmed resource and the outstanding exploration potential still to be tested on the Husab project, should ensure a long and successful mining operation centred on Rossing South."


nice tick up.
cyril

Amazed that this is stuck at 27.5, KAH up to 178.5p which gives a value of 42p
for URU's 27.58m shares.
cyril

This one does test your patience, keep the posts coming Cyril, its nice to know what your shares should be worth, thanks.

;ooks like our patience is being rewarded, 31.25p up over 7% to an all time high.
cyril

Yes, good to get to 30+, hope it doesn't drop back, KAH etc seem to all be going up so can only be good for URU.

2 x 65000 buys gone through, could go up a bit more today yet.

on the move again today, nothing's changed, it's just worth a lot more than this.

Yes motoring at last after testing ones patience,but fundinentals stood us in good stead. The recent hike as come on the back of EXT,up from A$8.13/9.73 a rise of
20%. Couple that with the discount against KAH,which in turn is discounted and as you stated a kot more to come..
With EXT due more resource figurs we could see A$10(9.9high) tested soon,
A$15 has been mentioned. Once URU's own projects and other interests come to
the fore,it'll be a question of how high?
aimho
cyril

Hopefully security issues with Niger's own projects have been resolved, and the EXT figures soon, this could double from here very soon.

20% up this week so far.

A great days trading.
For holders of the3 shares invovled, thats URU,KAH and EML i've added to the lheader post, a link to the relative values. Handy for quick refer.
cyril

EXT break A$10,on the news of a 3rd Zone which ahs given outstsanding resukts,http://www.freesharedata.com/eml
cyril

URU's relentless rise continues and it still trades at 8p discount to its KAH's holding,but a great whopping 17p to EXT.All this and so many other
assets including our own Uranium project,Henkries.
cyril

Testing the 40p barrier,this sjow but steady climb is most encouragibg.
cyril