anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

The key for Sterling is Mauritania.

If Chinguetti continues to flow at 30K bopd or more, if the poo remaims above 60, (I say that because of the reduced production from Chunguetti balances out by the increased unexpected poo), then things will no doubt progess according to their plan.

If either fail before they can produce something significant from elsewhere other than their current producing gas fields, then things could go wrong.

Will they?

Who knows.

OPEC seem to be doing their bit by asking members to produce less oil and the members seem to be falling in line by cutting production to support the poo.

Any blip to these issues could have long term effects.

Should we also take into consideration of the number of shares in issue with the company. It appears to be very large comparing to other firms of similar size. Can this have an effect the way the shares behave, it never appears to grow at a rate that others have acheived despite positive results and above average shares traded. I have always wondered if the number shares in issue are large the fluctuations of the share price will be small? A good prime example is VOD, have a look their number of shares issued and their price has been virtually static all year

I take your point R88AVE, but since you mention VOD, you should have a look at the volumes traded daily.

Unlike Sterling who seem to have varying degres of popularity when trading, (usually according to news or the flucuating poo), it not unusal for one or two hundred million VOD shares to exchange hands in any one trading day.

No, VOD have had other reasons as to why the sp has limped along. The sentiment is chamging there for the better I hasten to add. Far from being static VOD has been a consistent faller until about 2 weeks ago.

IMO VOD are now in the uptrend, so shares in issue there make no difference ijn that case, it's sentiment.

Sterling is a different matter.

The sp now we have seen before the last placing at 17p.

In Novemeber 2004 Sterling was growing organically, as was the sp, once the 97million worth of paper hit the market it has been hard going. The jump into the 30p and over mark this year seemed like a welcome relief, however I suspect this happened because of the poo, and the high number of tipsters giving it the green light.

The May correction sorted that out however, sp growth now depands on the areas highlighted.

The amount of shares will not matter if the Company growth remains organic from here on rather than it being flavour of the mointh.

sww/r88ave - to combine and develop the thoughts in your last two posts . . .

Chinguetti is crucial to provide (together with GoM) the engine (free cashflow) for SEY's further development without having to go to market to raise any more funds.

The 97m fund-raising did check the price, but it was non-dilutive at the SP raised, and we are told that repayment of 45m (?) will be with us by year end from Gov of Mauritania - great news.

I think the "all-things-being-equal" position of the SP would be much nearer the 30p we saw pre-May even with the 94m fund-raising. This has been brought back by sentiment/worry that Chinguetti was not the runaway gusher we all hoped (although it's pretty damn good, for all that) and the poo has retraced, causing other speculative oilers to retrace (EEN, FOGL, but happily not CHP - go, Chaco, go!) - besides the general market uncertainty since May.

Once we get used to the sustainable level of Ching's cashflow added to GoM's hurricane-modulated revenues, SEY will once again be seen as set fair to carry on its fantastic spread of explorations - GoM, Mauritania, Iraq, Madagascar, Forum (in Philippines?) all cleverly engineered at very high carried shares, so its internal cashflow should remain surplus to its expoloration needs.

If Harry goes near the market again, I'm off.

sd

"sww/r88ave - to combine and develop the thoughts in your last two posts . . ."

Good idea!

"I think the "all-things-being-equal" position of the SP would be much nearer the 30p we saw pre-May even with the 94m fund-raising."

No.

If the price of oil was nearer $70 and Chinguetti was producing more than 30k ish bopd, and there was not the prospect of a possible 50% write down in reserves, then yes, in fact I would go for neaer 50pence, all things being equal.

But they are not!

Oh, that's more or less what you said?

"Once we get used to the sustainable level of Ching's cashflow added to GoM's hurricane-modulated revenues, SEY will once again be seen as set fair to carry on its fantastic spread of explorations - GoM, Mauritania, Iraq, Madagascar, Forum (in Philippines?) all cleverly engineered at very high carried shares, so its internal cashflow should remain surplus to its expoloration needs."

Fair enough.

"If Harry goes near the market again, I'm off."

Can't see that myself.

Organic growth!

Madagascar is the key.

FROM THIS WEEK SHARES MAG

STERLING PERFORMANCE
Sterling's transformation was evident in these half-year figures as production from its oil oil and gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico and Africa soared 175% aiding a 159% hike in net profits to 4.9million.

Total output rose to 4671 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) although there was a stark warning for investors that ignore the risks. Mechanical problems at the vast Chinguetti field, offshore Muritania, and responsible for most of its production, will mean lower output levels in future and higher development costs.

Looking ahead, Sterling plans to drill eight exploration wells in the next year, with five scheduled for the second half of 2006.

SHARES SAYS: Cash-generative and with exploration potential- how many AIM companies can you say that about?

Interesting (?) or not!) to note that SEY's market cap per bopd (4,671) is approx 57,000, whereas EEN's (4,200 bopd in a similar stage of development as a company, but very differently) is approx 28,000. This reflects the relative reserves and exploration potential of each company. Apart from Colombia, EEN is a one-trick pony, Syria. SEY has at least 5 areas of major interest.

TIme to sell out of EEN (somewhat missing the 380p peak!) and pile more into SEY?

sd

Stockdog

that is exactly my point

EEN has some 56m shares in issue whereas sey some 1449m share in issue, that is why I have always wondered if this influence the share price as well as other issues.

r88ave,

I mentioned the number of shares in issue to Paul Griggs at Oilbarrel, and the fact that if they consolidated, the EPS would be higher, and and he said they regularly discussed these matters at board meetings, but he didn't think they would be changing anything in the near future.

Andy I dontthink there is a need for consolidation either.

Just develop this at it's own pace.

LTBH means that, so why didn't I?

Oh yes, boredom.

I'm not coming back but if things work out, you will all be filthy rich one day.

Resolutions by the end of the year:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=36685

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=36685

AMVESCAP increased their holding from 25.94% up to 28.15%

Optomistic,

Yes they are almost in a position where they have to make a bid for the company now!

Sterling Energy PLC
03 October 2006


Sterling Energy PLC (the 'Company')


Holding in Company



The Company has been informed by AMVESCAP PLC ('AMVESCAP') that AMVESCAP and
subsidiary companies, on behalf of discretionary clients, are interested in
394,941,967 Ordinary Shares of 1p each, representing 28.15 per cent. of the
issued share capital of the Company.


The Company was also notified by AMVESCAP that INVESCO Perpetual UK Investment
Series (UK ICVC) are the beneficial owner of 255,558,099 Ordinary Shares
representing 18.21 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company, which
is included in the above total.


3 October 2006


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

all very strange and yet sp has fallen slightly and on fairly modest volume
does anyone have any track of the period over which the holdings, especially Amvescap's, has been built?
however, given that Amvescap are holding as nominees, they almost certainly would not have to make a bid if they got above the magic threshhold (29%?)

Not without going through all the back RNS's cynic.

Cynic - they have been building for at least 3 years may be more.

They played a large part in the Sterling takeover of Fusion OIl & Gas in 2003 at prices of around 11.5p (Invesco)

What they have done since I would expect the funds to average out somewhere at around 12-13p, but that is guess.

Why would anyone want to takeover Sterling Energy?

Your question.

Madagascar = Exxon

I'm not buying as I never buy on prospects of a takeover.

you probably speak with the voice of sanity - thank you
if build up had been sudden, then would have been more significant.

The word over the road is one of the arms of Amvescap was touting Sterling around the city last week, according to The Business.

I did not see it so I dont know.

What is significant is that if true, the sp has not responded, unless they are doing a Hardman on Sterling.

Or even a Fusion on Sterling.

Cynic - Here it is..........

The Business

".....Of the Aim-listed companies in Africa, Sterling, Equator Petroleum, and Bowleven are targets. Stockbroker Hargreave Hale, which advises a group of Sterlings shareholders, has been touting the company to potential buyers, as has Bowlevens broker Noble. The aggressive US funds which predominate in Equators shareholder base are known to be looking for a quick exit. Roc Oil could also see itself being acquired......"

I had seen it, I had just forgotten about the Sterling reference as I hold ROC. Frankly ROC is more likely imo than any of the others. They produce 12k bopd all to themselves.

The touting of Sterling does account for the minor move up last week, but interesting that it has not held.

Looks negative to me.