STRATEGY

•FOGL seeks to add shareholder value by pursuing an aggressive exploration programme in its licences to the south and east of the Falkland Islands. Exploration drilling will continue in the deep water areas of FOGL’s licences in the first half of 2012. If successful, this drilling could lead to the development of a new hydrocarbon province in the South Atlantic.

Next Phase of drilling

In the first half of 2012 FOGL is planning to drill two wells in the deep water area of its licences.
FOGL has contracted the Leiv Eiriksson rig to undertake this drilling programme. The rig is due to arrive in the Falklands in early 2012 when it will initially drill two wells for Borders and Southern Plc (B&S), before commencing the FOGL drilling programme. The B&S wells are to be drilled on the Darwin and Stebbing prospects. The results of these wells will be of interest to FOGL, because we have similar plays and prospects within the southern part of our licence area.

The first well to be drilled in the FOGL programme will be on the Loligo prospect. A number of options exist for the second well, including potentially a well on Scotia, a prospect within the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play. The final decision on which prospect will be targeted by the second well will be guided by the results from Loligo.

Funding

As at 7 September 2011 FOGL's available funds, including the BHP Billiton settlement, were $150.8 million. The Company is debt free.


2012 Drilling Programme

The Leiv Eiriksson a harsh environment rig has been drilling wells offshore Greenland for Cairn Energy. That campaign is expected to finish by the end of November 2011 after which the rig will head south to the Falkland Islands. The rig will first drill two wells (about 90 days drilling) for Borders and Southern Plc (B&S) before moving on to the FOGL programme. The transit time from Greenland is expected to be approximately 60 days.

A great deal of work has gone into the planning of the FOGL drilling campaign and over the preceding years a large amount of data has had to be collected to so that the drilling can take place.

Seismic data was acquired from 2004 to 2007 and again in 2011, CSEM in 2007, site surveys in 2009 and 2011 and metocean data, from permanent current meters, in 2009/10. Well planning essentially started in 2009 with the drilling of three, 200m deep, geotechnical boreholes. This data helped with the planning of the shallow section of the Toroa well (FI 61/05-1) and has been extensively used in the planning of the deep water programme.

The first well in the FOGL programme will be on the giant Loligo prospect. A second well will also be drilled by FOGL using the Leiv Eiriksson and site surveys have been acquired over the following prospects: The Nimrod Complex and the Vinson prospect in the Tertiary Channel Play, the Scotia or Hero prospects in the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play and the Inflexible or Endeavour prospect in the Springhill Sandstone Play. Options that are currently being considered depend upon the results of the first well on Loligo. The final play in the FOGL acreage is in the Fold Belt in the south west of the FOGL acreage. This play is being tested by B&S at their Stebbing prospect. Similar features exist within the FOGL acreage and the results of the well will be closely monitored. In addition the B&S, Darwin well is targeting a tilted fault block which again shows great similarities with several prospects in the FOGL portfolio (Inflexible, Thulla etc.). Depending on the results of Darwin FOGL may consider a well on Inflexible as the second well in the programme.

FOGL’s main focus is on the two younger plays, the Tertiary Channel and the Mid Cretaceous Fan play. FOGL has been working on the Mid Cretaceous play for some time but it was only in late 2009, when the seismic data had been fully reprocessed, that it became clear that this major new play was viable. The play is analogous to the ones being successfully targeted in West Africa (the Tullow Jubilee field in Ghana and other discoveries along that margin) and the general geology, depositional setting and even the AVO response (Class II response over Scotia and Hero) are remarkably similar. The two main prospects, Scotia and Hero, both contain prospective resources in excess of 1 billion bbls. One of the key features that makes this play so attractive is that the reservoir sands sit directly above the mature Aptian oil source rocks which were sampled in the DSDP wells to the East of the FOGL acreage.

2012 DRLLING TARGET LOLIGO

The shallowest target alone covers an area of over 600sqkm. The Loligo prospect was first mapped in 2006 and has been re-mapped and re analysed several times since then. It is a large stratigraphic trap which is supported by a very consistent Class III AVO response on the seismic data. It is an ‘easy to map’ anomaly which stands out clearly above the background seismic responses when compared to the entire basin. In addition, it sits directly above an old high which used to separate the Southern basin (Fitzroy sub-basin) from the Northern basin (Volunteer sub-basin). This old high seems to be acting as a focus for hydrocarbon migration from deeply buried source rocks in each of the sub basins.

Beneath the southern part of Loligo several other prospects within the Tertiary Channel play, overlap and may be penetrated by one carefully located well. The deeper prospects (each covering an area similar to Loligo) have been called Trigg and the Three Bears. Together these prospects are called the Loligo Complex. The prospective resources (recoverable oil) associated with the Loligo complex, are in excess of 4 billion bbls of oil or over 25tcf of gas.




FOGL is focused exclusively on offshore oil and gas exploration in the Falkland Islands.

We are pursuing an aggressive exploration programme that could lead to the development of a new petroleum province in the South Atlantic. The joint venture operations have now moved into the drilling phase.
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Most prospects in 2,000 – 4,500 feet water depth (610 – 1372m)

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Target horizons: 6,000 – 13,000 feet below sea bed lever (1829 – 3962m)

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Falklands weather is similar to West of Shetland

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Remote location but there were no major issues during 1998 drilling campaign

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Anchored semi-submersible or drillship for exploration drilling

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Tried and tested technology for developments



Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Licence area.




FINANCIAL SUMMARY http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/Investors/performance

FOGL HOME http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/home

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/falkland-oil-and-gas-2012-its-time-63024/

From their RNS 28th June:
"FOGL expects to announce the preliminary results of the Toroa F61/5-1 well in the week commencing 5 July 2010. "

it would be very nice indeed if the mega-flurry the other day was from inside info

Rumours are rife nowadays, can't believe any of them.

Regret I sold out of FOGL, but have large enough holdings in DES & RKH, which I am sure will rise or fall (temporarily) on the back of the FOGL duster or gusher.

Westhouse broker note out today:
"We expect results from the well on the Toroa prospect within days.
Ahead of this imminent result, we are establishing a target price of 347p for Falkland Oil and Gas. Clearly success with the well will result in significant upside to this target.
Nimrod and Hersilia are also possible target prospects after Loligo. However for our valuation we have selected Endeavour, in what is likely to be a flexible drilling schedule based on results.
Based on the significant premium our target price represents to the current share price, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the company. We should inject a note of caution, however, as FOGLs share price will be very dependent on the upcoming drill results. In the event that the Toroa exploration well is unsuccessful, holders should expect a sharp fall in the share price."

That's the problem, I've already made a few bucks on this and would hate to lose it....toss of a coin for this one...and be prepared to be stuck in this for possibly up to a year if it is a failure because there are no signs of a rig for future drilling. It will be a year before a follow up at the very least.

You have a good point there rf. A duster means hanging on to stock for a considerable amount of time.

The same can be said almost the same for Sterling Energy, I'm in that one and not at a profit for the moment : the only thing is that they have encountered signs of hydrocarbons...but coming back to this one....it is so tempting but I'm holding off for the moment....plenty of others to look out for....

Can already see some future posts from the know-it-alls, that sometimes post.

Gusher comes in....Posts to those who sold...Idiots, or worse.
Duster comes in....Posts to those who held or bought....Idiots or worse.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
There is nothing wrong, with getting it wrong.

Contradiction in terms if ever there was one, but I am sure you know what I mean.

None of us make the right decisions 100% or anywhere near that percentage all of the time. the best we can hope for is to be right more times than we are wrong.

Still won't have long to wait to see if we jumped the right way.

Me....I bought and held after a bit of a top up a few week ago.

True.....I hate crowing.....as I already have a risky one in SEY which probably might go down the drain.....so I'm not in this.....I'll try to jump in if I can...but already have made an excellent profit so can't complain.....

i think this is a pretty risky punt, and though i am making a profit here, i have already banked some and would not want to be holding more than 30/50% of normal stake.

if the call is correct, then goody goody and there will be plenty more to come, and if it's wrong, then the damage will not cause hysterics

Problem is as well is that it is valued at more than 300 million.....it would have to be a discovery like sea lion to take this a pound more or so.....Plenty more wells to be drilled yet from DES and RKH, but FOGL and BOR badly need a rig.

i never know how to value any damn company, let alone a one trick pony like this one

Over 60 posts already on iii this am regarding this mornings RNS.
Over 90% of these posts contain the usual rubbish.

Oil found/It's a duster.

One of these predictions is obviously going to be right, but at present we 'Just don't know which!
Although we can never predict what the markets will do, there was always going to be one certainty.
If Fogl put out an RNS re a delay, some plonkers (not a nasty insult, just think of Delboy and Rodney) would post, "Oil Found" or "It's a Duster".
How predictable!

Thank goodness, it's the opposite on MoneyAm with over 90% of posts well worth reading. Those few that are not have been on my ignore list for ages.

"FOGL, the oil and gas exploration company focused on its extensive licence areas to the South and East of the Falkland Islands, announced on 1 June 2010 that the Toroa F61/5-1 exploration well had spudded on Monday 31 May. The well is being drilled to an estimated target depth of circa 2,700 metres. The Toroa prospect is located in Licence PL15, in which FOGL has a 49% interest.

As previously announced, the Company had been expecting to announce preliminary results of the well during this week; however, there have been some further delays due to some minor operational issues and weather related downtime.

FOGL now expects to announce the preliminary results of the Toroa F61/5-1 well during the week commencing Monday 12 July 2010."

One thing I don't quite understand is that we are expecting preliminary results, so drilling must have been completed, which means that neither the weather nor the operational problems should affect the issuing of the results. My immediate (& uninformed) reaction is that the news is not as good as expected & they are therefore double checking their data. Sp down 10% which implies that the market is concerned, imo.

If oil had been discovered...you would like to think that the company would say so......if there is none : sp will drop by a third....at least.

My Take.

All the RNS means is what it says. "There have been some further delays due to some minor operational issues and weather related downtime".
I don't think it means anything more.
I have been following the weather reports and they have had some high winds, heavy swell, that presumably has resulted in that related downtime comment.

If they had struck oil or found the well to be a duster, they would not risk breaking market rules by keeping quiet, especially due to the fact that there would be so many who would know, including most of the rig workers.

If they had not put out the RNS, no doubt the sp would have gradually dipped down well below the 10% it initially did due to ever increasing rumors.

As to the sp being down 10%, I did expect that, re any delay as investors, including myself become more nervous. The sp is now balancing out at 4% down.

I am holding.

almost hohoho!

father xmas.....get back to your wine sampling.,.