.

cynic, just like Sea Lion before that discovery. At this stage of the game everyone knows the top slicers are top slicing - so any buyer just has to casually mop up the sells by letting the share price drift.

The first thing you will know about any coming news will be a massive volume spike of over 4.5 million shares in a day - if that happens then watch the share price movement.

Until then, it will drift now - I would expect thousands are watching waiting to buy good news - everyone who wants in, is in already, like me - and so the only people really trading now are those top slicing or selling before results - hence the sideways drift.

maybe, but that has been flagged before, if not here then elsewhere, and nothing at all ..... you rationalise, for i am 97.5% certain that in may other cases of these spivvy companies, sp has been very heavily traded and pretty volatile for several weeks before any result is known ..... in the case of fogl (and yourself) may well prove to be more like rumplestiltskin (or the miller) than sleeping beauty

cynic - there is your problem.

FOGL is not a spivvy company - and you hold no FOGL stock.

Why not just stop pretending and admit you hate the company, you think its going to fail - but just in case there is good news you will be loud mouthed about buying and selling and making profits "in the hand" after the news.

Thats your normal operational mode..........

arsehole! ..... your knowledge of my holdings and trading pattern etc etc is based on as much fact as so many of your posts .... if i say i hold a certain stock, then i do - unlike you, i have no need to lie ..... my holding in fogl is now modest as always admitted, though it was too large for my personal comfort a few weeks back ..... it would profit me greatly if fogl did beat the odds as that would almost certainly have a knock-on effect on rkh, which i note you do not tell me i do not hold

and of course i do not hold DES though i did indeed make a very tidy turn in less than an hour when the lemmings (and you?) got overexcited ..... sp is now back where it belongs, surprise surprise

DES ? I only ever traded it once, and made on it.

Apart from that DES was the ramp baby of markymar.......... nothing to do with me.

i know for sure mark made a fortune on RKH and then blew virtually all of it by failing to bank his profits ..... silly ass, as he readily admits

RKH, in at 37p and out at 300p.

I made loads............. you made a little thanks to your constant buying and selling all the way up.

I was in XEL at 20p - you were posting for months how I was wrong and it was a bad stock as illiquid and nobody should buy it.

Then nearer 100p you brought in........... LOL

I sold that at 400p thanks.

You were wrong on that one, in a spectacular way, when it was dirt cheap and people could fill their boots, as I did.

Its all pointless, and I really do not see why you bother keeping going to the gutter level with your snide comments and nonsense.

If you do not like FOGL - say it.

Far more ramping going on on XEL and you are as quiet as a mouse about it - why ? Because you hold a load of XEL.

That makes you a hypocrite, not a cynic.

Uh oh! Mr C. looks like you may soon be added to the squelch list at the top! Bit like an ASBO really. A badge of honour! ;o)

No, the list at the top are muppets - cynic has not resorted to complete muppet level yet, so no ASBO for him.

LOL!

P - you really are unbelievable (so what's new?) ..... yet again you show that you draw conclusions from thin air with no facts to support ..... i have said my piece about FOGL and why i hold as many (or as few) as i do ..... i hold approx twice as many XEL which are now at more or less b/e ..... i hold an awful lot more (inter alia) of AFR and TLW which i consider to be companies of far more substance

now off to have my crown fitted ...... have a WONDERFUL afternoon everyone without me

So many companies putting themselves up for sale - looks like the "concern" that raising money is getting more and more difficult is correct.

Bad news imo for DES and BOR and ARG - who all need to raise cash before doing any more drilling.

No problem for RKH and FOGL - both with plenty of cash.

i'm now back to plague you :-)
yippeezippeedoodah!!!!

Some interesting posts on here since my last comment.
Apparently there is ramping afoot on the Xcite thread, was that directed at me?
For the record, in the month of September, the Xcite thread has 17 posts, on the other hand this thread has 78 posts, of which 25 have been made by Proselenes. If the accusation is correct that he and grannyboy are the same then add another 10 or so.
Ramping on the Xcite thread? At best amusing, at worst, how two faced can a two faced person be?
Best buy Xcite, it's going up. Even if it doesn't go up anymore, it won't crash by 50% like this will when it it comes up dry or with a gas find.
It's very Xciting. Ta da

A lot of people may not think, when I say FOGL's top 100 prospects, that FOGL has a prospect hopper of over 100 leads/prospects.

They are probably familiar with only the map below - which simply highlights the shortlisted ones, for now.




However, this is the map below where the top 100 prospects/leads were displayed - and shows just how many prospects/leads there are - and there will be more to come to add to this once 3D seismic is done later this year/early next year.





Enjoy :)

Just how big are FOGL's licenses ? Well look below (they have been trimmed a little since this graphic was done, but not by much !!)




.

Updated 7th Sept.

Apart from GMP comparison I thought I would run my calculations against the prices being quoted for Mozambique offshore gas. The Falklands has a better tax/royalty regime than Mozambique by a few percent, and also the Falklands allows much more costs to be reclaimed via tax deductions - so overall its more attractive fiscally in the Falklands, but anyway.

Mid case 45 TCF recoverable (between 30 and 60) based on link below.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-06-11/news/32175164_1_gas-discoveries-mitsui-e-p-miozambique-lng

45 TCF mid case - 3 billion US$ for 10% as per link below

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-05/dhoot-said-to-seek-3-billion-for-africa-gas-block-stake

10% of 45 TCF recoverable is 4.5 TCF

3 billion US$ for 4.5TCF = circa 666 million US$ per TCF


Loligo 25 TCF recoverable on a P50 basis.


25 TCF with 75% ownership = 18.75 TCF net to FOGL recoverable.


18.75 x 666 million US$ = 12.48 billion US$ = £7.9 billion

£7,900,000,000 divided by 320m shares in issue = £24.68 per FOGL share for a full on gas discovery at Loligo


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I thought I would run my calculations against GMP - who did a report earlier only based on the T1 shallow reservoir.

GMP report is here : http://cgxenergy.ca/cmsAssets/docs/analysts/GMP%20Securities/GMP-Dec15-11-2012ExplorationThemes.pdf

GMP report is based on 60% work in (FOGL having 60%) and only on the T1 reservoir based on 1509 mmBOE (1.509 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent (Equivalent as based on most likely gas find in T1 shallow of 9TCF recoverable = 1.509 Billion BOE). It excludes T1 Deep/Trigg/Trigg Deep/Three Bears.

GMP come up with unrisked 3176p per share just for the T1 reservoir - but we must allow for the placing in 2012 which was to ensure FOGL could drill Loligo Deep and go through all 5 targets.

3176p a share just for T1 shallow (60% WI) was based on 208m shares in issue. There is after the Jan 12 placing now 320m shares in issue, so the figure needs reducing to 2064 pence per FOGL share for just T1 shallow target.

However, its not a 60% WI, it was put back to 100% and then farmed to EDF via Edison SPA - so the FOGL WI is now 75%.

So 2064 pence per share for just T1 shallow with 60% WI, becomes 2580 pence per FOGL share with the 75% WI.

So GMP value a T1 shallow (excluding T1 Deep) strike at Loligo on a 1.509 BBOE P50 basis at 2580 pence per share (thats 25 pound and 80 pence per share).

GMP actually make my calculations look very conservative, but that is what I wanted my calculations to be - very conservative. I have used lowball US$ figures per barrel for oil and per TCF for gas - GMP are using around 8.5 US$ figure in their calculations.

(For very simple conversion 1 TCF recoverable = 160 MMBOE recoverable or
1 BBOE recoverable = 6 TCF recoverable)

The barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) is a unit of energy based on the approximate energy released by burning one barrel (42 US gallons or 158.9873 litres) of crude oil. The BOE is used by oil and gas companies in their financial statements as a way of combining oil and natural gas reserves and production into a single measure.





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My earlier "very conservative" calculation post.




Final Version :

Luckily FOGL have retained 75% of Loligo, otherwise I would have had to re-work this.

A very rough guide on what success, IF ANY, has in terms of monetary value. Given this mornings Noble farm in I would suspect Noble will farm into Loligo as well, but only after drilling results and any success - allowing FOGL to monetise success very quickly.



Loligo - Interpreting the results of the drill


Loligo is 75% FOGL and 25% Edison SPA (EDF), as according to the recent farm in deal.

First up one should consider the strategic importance of Edison SPA as the farm in partner. Edison are highly experienced in gas and oil exploration/production/distribution. You can see there latest gas PDF brochure on the below link :

Edison SPA (majority owned by EDF)

15.2 billion cubic meters of available natural gas supply. Edison accounts for 19.60% of Italy’s demand for natural gas, 83 concessions and exploration permits in Italy and abroad, 3 natural gas storage centers, 1 LNG terminal, 49.8 billion cubic meters of hydrocarbon reserves.


http://www.edison.it/media/brochure-edison-gas2012.pdf


As can be seen, Edison is a major part of the Italian energy supply system, and its parent company EDF is majority owned by the French government. This brings both the Italian and French governments in with the UK government as having direct opposition to any Argentinean harassment, add on an upset Spanish government over the nationalization of YPF (stealing it from Repsol) and you are seeing a clear picture of major world powers all becoming aligned against Argentina.

.


In the South Falklands Basin the weather/sea conditions are similar to the Norwegian North Sea / West of Shetland. Water depths are not extremely deep (Loligo is around 1400m water depth) and most targets are shallower than 1500m water depth.

However, owing the remote location the criteria for a commercial discovery is higher than it would be elsewhere in the world.

Before proceeding some companies quote OIP or GIP figures (these are Oil in Place or Gas in Place figures and are not the same as "recoverable barrels" or "recoverable gas" which is the Oil or Gas figure after the "recovery factor" is applied. Owing to decent reservoir formations one assumes a 32% oil recovery factory and a 50% gas recovery factor on the OIP/GIP figures)


Oil - a find needs to be at least 200 million barrels recoverable to be commercial as a stand alone project. Smaller sizes that this would only be commercial when tied into a bigger development nearby. In reality to gain maximum value from a discovery it needs to be 400 million recoverable barrels in size - owing to economy of scale, the larger the find you hit a point at which its very attractive to develop, as opposed to being able to develop and make money, you come into being able to develop and make a lot of money.

Gas - a find needs to be at least 5 TCF recoverable to be commercial as a stand alone project. Smaller sizes that this would only be commercial when tied into a bigger development nearby. In reality to gain maximum value from a discovery it needs to be 10 TCF recoverable in size - owing to economy of scale, the larger the find you hit a point at which its very attractive to develop, as opposed to being able to develop and make money, you come into being able to develop and make a lot of money.

Condensate - no idea on this. Condensate is more complicated as there has to be gas re-injection in order to gain the maximum recovery of the oils. If you produce the gas and remove it then very soon the well will stop producing condensate and the total recoverable condensate will be very low. You have to therefore re-inject the gas back into the reservoir to maintain pressures so that gas again lifts the condensate out. Condensate often trades at higher than Brent crude per barrel - but its extraction costs are higher than oil due to the processes needed.


MAKE NO MISTAKE AT THIS POINT - LOLIGO IS A 4.7 BBOE recoverable target - thats 4.7 billion barrels of "oil equivalent" that are recoverable based on P50 estimates. THE UPPER TARGETS WILL LIKELY BE GAS - and owing to their mammoth size very commercial as well (which is why Edison SPA farmed in and Falklands gas via LNG could be a major part of Italys future energy supply) - the lower targets could be oil or could be more gas.

As FOGL are drilling well away from the high pressure/temperature area of the Southern South Falklands, they are drilling in the Northern South Falklands, there are no undue concerns about high pressure as was seen by BOR who were drilling in the high pressure Fold Belt area of the Southern South Falklands.


Loligo's 5 targets :


OIL BASIS - This is the LEAST likely end result, IMO.


T1 = 1509 million recoverable barrels - P50

T1 Deep = 644 million recoverable barrels - P50

Trigg and Trigg Deep is 969 million recoverable barrels - P50

Three Bears = 1588 million recoverable barrels - P50


Based on Sea Lion of RKH and therefore using a 4.7US$ per barrel valuation and taking 75% of that for FOGL's share and 320 million shares in issue.

T1 = 1509m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £10.72 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil
T1 Deep = 644m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £4.57 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil
Triggs = 969m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £6.88 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil
3 Bears = 1588m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £11.28 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil

If all targets are oil, based on Sea Lion price - potential £33.45 per share.

As FOGL already have a farm in partner and reservoirs are going to be, if there, large massive thick sandstones and simple to develop the price should be higher than Sea Lion's 4.7US$ per barrel, however, I will use that for now to be conservative.

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GAS BASIS - this is a VERY POSSIBLE outcome to the well on success.


T1 = Circa 9 TCF recoverable - P50

T1 Deep = Circa 3.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Trigg and Trigg Deep is circa 5.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Three Bears = Circa 9.5 TCF recoverable - P50


Based on Cove's (COV) sale and therefore using a 513 millions US$ per TCF recoverable and taking 75% of that for FOGL's share and 320 million shares in issue.

T1 = 9*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £6.98 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
T1 Deep = 3.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £2.94 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
Triggs = 5.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £4.49 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
3 Bears = 9.5*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £7.36 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas

As FOGL already have a farm in partner and reservoirs are going to be, if there, large massive thick sandstones and simple to develop the price should be higher than Sea Lion's 4.7US$ per barrel, however, I will use that for now to be conservative.

If all targets are gas, based on COV price - potential £21.77 per share.


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GAS UPPER, OIL LOWER - This is the MOST LIKELY end result on success, imo.


Most likely outcome, if successful, would be IMO, gas in T1 and T1 deep, gas in Triggs and a bonus API 18+ oil discovery in 3 Bears.

This combo of oil and gas would give as below, if all were successful and P50 size.

T1 = 9*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £6.98 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
T1 Deep = 3.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £2.94 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
Triggs = 5.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £4.49 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
3 Bears = 1588m*75%*4.7/1.55/320m = £11.28 per FOGL share value if P50 size oil

Total gas upper/oil lower result = Potential £25.69 per share.


The strategic importance of having Edison SPA on board now in the farm in is very clear. Had FOGL discovered gas, as is to be expected in the upper zones, then they would, like RKH and the small and complex Sea Lion, had to probably accept a low ball offer to get the project moving.

With Edison SPA on board and their expertise in gas FLNG, storage, transportation and with them having a market already which needs much more LNG pumped into it, as in the earlier PDF, any gas discovery with over 5 TCF recoverable in size is likely to get developed. If T1 and T1 deep come in as gas as is expected then immediately Loligo is well past the 10 TCF threshold at which it becomes very commercially attractive to develop, meaning we would see pretty quick development of Loligo imo.

The joker in the pack is Three Bears, this will be the last reservoir target to be drilled and could well be the one that contains the oil there - exciting that if T1 and T1 deep are gas, we have a commercial success and then we have the icing on the cake possibly down below that. If T1 and T1 deep fail, there is still the big one down below to save the day.

Obviously if they have a duster then its a duster and none of the above matters, but it should act as some sort of rough guide with which to value success on a reservoir target by reservoir target basis, be it gas or oil.



Drill hole / casing of the Loligo Well below :




Drilling depths (below mud line - actual drilling depths) rough comparison between RKH Sea Lion well and FOGL Loligo below :




As Loligo has 4 independent potential "company making" targets (putting Trigg/Trigg Deep together as one) I fully expect them to make multiple RNS announcements of progress during drilling, and not just a single one at the end. Had there been a main target and some small secondary ones then yes, maybe one RNS, but with 4 potential company making finds on the way down, I expect updates to come as drilling progresses. The first 2 targets, T1 and T1 deep are under half the actual drilling depth from sea bed/mud line that the Sea Lion main fan was for the RKH drill, so I expect some news fairly soon, perhaps in 3 weeks or so.

The values for oil in the ground and gas in the ground are low, imo, but its worth starting there at low points to please the bears a little.



As ever, all is IMO, NAG, DYOR !! etc..