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Traders Thread - Thursday 15th April (GUS)     

Crocodile - 14 Apr 2004 21:18

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Nikkei -282 Hang Seng -272  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

US stocks rallied in late trading after hitting the 10 day support. After the bell Apple posted a quarterly profit that more than tripled on strong sales of its iPod digital music players. Texas Instruments maker of chips for cell phones, reported higher first-quarter profit & rose to $29.20. AMD Advanced Micro reported stronger sales of processors and flash memory& rose to $17.39.

UK Technology stocks could rise on the news but big falls in Asian stocks could drive European markets lower. Smallcap shares seem to be heading back down again after such a good rise over the last 12 months.

GUS, Argos sales grew to 4% up from 3% in Q4, boosted by new season products after a disappointing slip over Christmas. It also owns Experian, which provides credit checks and marketing services rose by 5% in line with forecasts. Its Homebase home improvement stores rose 5% in the five months.

Sage said first half profits were ahead of expectations at approximately 87 million beating expectations and growth of 17% on the same period last year.

Big Food Group sales rose 1.4% in its fourth quarter but this was a slowdown of 2% in its third quarter. Iceland frozen food chain fell 0.2 percent in the quarter while Booker saw sales rise 1.2 percent, down from 1.6 percent previously. Further profits are expected to come for cost cutting rather than sales growth.

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Sage (Trading), Big Food (Trading), GUS (Trading), Associated British Ports (AGM), CW Residential (AGM), Kpn (AGM),

Pendragon (AGM)

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David@SnappyTrader.com    www .SnappyTrader.com  Pre Market Futures FTSE -5 DAX -6 DOW -16 S&P -1.9 NAS -4

Tips & Recommendations

Crocodile - 14 Apr 2004 21:18 - 2 of 17

ftse.gif

ThePlayboy - 15 Apr 2004 07:10 - 3 of 17

THU FTSE PP

R2 4545
R1 4515
PP 4486
S1 4456
S2 4426

Ftse closed below s1 after loosing 1.2pts in the auction, closed at top of 2 day chart, weakness sub 80 on brk of uptrend off wed low, cont strength if dow closes above 10400 imho





Updated 4/14 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/15
UP Above 10,425
DN Below 10,320

Drop and Pop
Dow sells off early, but rallies before finally settling the day slightly lower.

From prior commentary, "...we may see the Dow trade sideways at the lows before another move either way is seen. Markets tend to consolidate at the highs or lows of sharp moves, allowing time to digest recent action. This could be the case tomorrow..."
The Dow sold off early in the session, but immediately rallied off the lows before hitting resistance at 10,420, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index reversed off the highs and trended back down toward the day's lows, essentially forming a clear trading range from 10,320 to 10,420, which we will watch closely tomorrow.

The fact that the Dow has formed a clear range at the lows indicates potential weakness to come. A downside break from the range at 10,320 will very likely spark a continuation lower within the current downmove.

However, we will likely see further sideways movement within the range before another move occurs. Volatility within the range could be high, so wait for a break from the consolidation to indicate that another trend has begun. An upside break through the top of the range at 10,420 will likely spark a move toward resistance at 10,550.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day on a solid note, as the index pushed higher to the Close. Look for further strength above the clear lower trend line that has formed beneath the lows of the advance, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. A break of the line at 10,365 will make for weakness.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,490 and will move stops down to 10,420 for tomorrow's market, locking in 70 points for the trade. We will stay Short below 10,320 and will enter Long above 10,425; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P filled morning gaps to the upside, leading to early strength. However, the index looks to be forming a range at the lows, which could forecast another push lower. Watch the range boundaries closely for action. *

Summary

The Dow rallied off the morning lows this morning, but also reversed off the day's highs, essentially forming a clear trading range in the process. Watch for continued movement within the range until a break occurs. A break from the consolidation will likely lead to a solid push in the direction of the break.


Crocodile - 15 Apr 2004 07:36 - 4 of 17

Morning all

little woman - 15 Apr 2004 08:35 - 5 of 17

Morning all,

Its been an interesting first 30 min!

Diego - 15 Apr 2004 09:03 - 6 of 17

Morning All,

Drugs seem to be taking off! Why?

Diego

stockbunny - 15 Apr 2004 11:22 - 7 of 17

Maybe because more people out there like me have had the 'joy' of
their tax return appearing in the post today - enough to drive anyone
to drink or something!!! Seems the tax office are being efficient this
year!

martin987654 - 15 Apr 2004 11:27 - 8 of 17

little woman: I think you were asking about BT weakness yesterday pm?

see piece in today's Times re possible EU investigation into tax breaks. co-incidentally (?), we have also seen a big buyer of the May 180 Puts today.

Crocodile - 15 Apr 2004 13:23 - 9 of 17

Running a small long on the FTSE but its now flatlined ...... zzzzzz

Crocodile - 15 Apr 2004 13:24 - 10 of 17

Looking for shorts amongst smallcaps

Crocodile - 15 Apr 2004 13:24 - 11 of 17

Small long on GUS

Diego - 15 Apr 2004 13:34 - 12 of 17

Croc -

FTSE seems ready to move out of trading range. Either forms a double top at 4505 or move higher towards 4515/25. AZN seems to be printing a similar pattern.

Diego

little woman - 15 Apr 2004 15:45 - 13 of 17

I was wondering if JVRS could fall any further?

bush - 15 Apr 2004 15:56 - 14 of 17

little woman, it just came off it's lowest in 5 years i think. It looks like an overreaction, but I'm a bit apprehensive in going in, i remember ages ago somebody saying they were going to short it to 100p.

I still think it's a bargain!

little woman - 15 Apr 2004 16:08 - 15 of 17

I agree. I don't tend to worry about exceptional charges (as long as they are one offs, which is what they should be!) I thought coming out of the rail side was the best thing they could do - which is why I started getting interested. A cut is div is not too bad, as long as they still pay one. Before the drop the return was about 8%!

little woman - 15 Apr 2004 16:11 - 16 of 17

JVRS seems to be pulling back - I don't think your friend is going to get 100p

bush - 15 Apr 2004 22:12 - 17 of 17

you may be right (unless he was the finance director!)
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