The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

ziblot,
if that was an e-mail, please post , if a phone call, please expand.
thanks,
Dexter

strange comment to make ziblot. Please enlarge

Rkausar - What are you confused about? The answer is "NO I haven't sold", I still have all my shares and will continue to hold, as I truly believe PET will come good in the end, the only concern I've ever had is really when these will come good. The de-rampers are out in force else where, shouting about the interim government not being able to award oil contracts, etc, but what none of them seem to understand(or worse still perhaps they do, but just want to scare you) is that PET are intially going for a Development contract(Kirkuk), which falls under a service contract, we have already seen research contracts been given out, which again fall under service contracts. PET have stated from the beginning they hope to change these into risk sharing agreements, but lets face it, it will be 10 months down the road until they have finished putting together the rigs, etc. DH still seems to be very positive about the whole tendering process and at the moment apart for the dip in share price, which was fully expected today, nothing has changed at all.
The real kicker was that everyone was expecting a contract to be announced before the end of November (I am guilty of that too), the contracts have not been awarded so far, and you saw the MM's take full advantage of that this morning, and again in the afternoon. The ministry of oil have far greater concerns than the short term stock price of PET, and will announce the tenders when they are ready (like the rest of you, it pains me to wait, but that is what we will have to do, unless you have purchased these on a T trade)

Sorry I can not offer more words of encouragement, but there really isn't any more information available. PET have been sworn to secrecy, and that is what they have done and are still doing. Food for thought, You don't keep quiet about something for over a month, unless it is in your best interests to do so. BP & shell didn't keep quiet when they were not awarded the research contracts!!!!


IMHO

Tokyo

tokyo,
good evening,
as petrom, dome, and sonoran ,also according to some everasia are out of the running, who does that leave in your opinion?.
i , for one think that it is only PET and that they have to sort the technicalities etc before they can announce anything, because although these are relatively small contracts iraq has to show the world the can handle the rebuilding of the oil industry.
dexter

Excellent and very sensible post from Tokyo. We are in a hiatus period. Serious investors are getting worried because of a statement by the IOM of a contract being awarded by end November. The de-rampers are out in force and may be short selling. But while nothing is said the shrewd investor sits on his hands and waits (no panic buttons!). Except if the price falls too much he/she tops up. So, if you get this impatience to do something, just say "post 1356"; look at it if you need to. How long is a hiatus! Now, there's a question!

Eric

Evening/Afternoon Dexter

Certain does seem like the companies we knew about are out of the running, I just wonder if there were any we didn't know about(but that's me trying to be a sensible and impartical investor*note the word trying!), there could be a hundred and one things they have to sort out on these tenders, I'm sure PET will be as accomodating as possible, but will be looking for adequate risk-adjusted returns. It may also simply be a case of the MOO going through there resubmitted tender, and proposing different clauses, etc.

One thing is for certain we shall find out in the end......now back to the waiting!!!

Tokyo

People,
Posted on otherside 4652, some of the things I said but let him know as a shareholder I was not happy, Reply was almost immediate. z

Ziblot.
Can you paste it please.

I emailed him. He replyed almost immediately:We are asked by the ministry to say nothing until further notice. 30 Nov. 14:15 hrs
Simply put I asked while they were in Amman surely Block 6 had to be discussed.I had already stated that a Russian/Balarus venture Slavneft had bid for and was expected to sign a sevice contract for Subba + Luhais in August 2001 but contracts at that time were delayed, deferred or cancelled. That being the case was Block 6 confirmed in recent discussion at Amman as legally binding and not defered as others were. I said if you can issue RNS based on conjecture, which is why we have a bubble in the share price,why not a press release concerning block 6 based on fact, which has nothing to do with the recent tenders but would surely underpin the SP. Amongst other things which I'm sure he wasn't happy with. If the Iraq Oil Ministry who are there for the benefit of the Iraqi people say they will make a statement by the end of November they should do so and You Mr D.H as OUR LEADER should point out to your friends in the ministry that you also work for the benefit of others and statements that do not materialise do nothing for the share price. Hoped you enjoyed your evening last night. z

It is obvious to me, as it is to others, all contracts have been agreed, so what's the delay? ----------The elections!!
Just some thoughts on what I believe could be causing the delay. quite a long post, but in summary the Interim Iraqi Government have delayed announcements for long term political reasons, their elections are now nine weeks away, 30th January, If I was going for election I would listen to my advisers on the best time for releasing news and not before good news was in place. below could be the 'good news' the Iraqi people would listen to and why I believe the Norwegian Oil company (Statoil) owned 81% by Norway's Government, will certainly be a front runner in our little play that is Iraqi Oil contracts. Could be the reason the Norwegian Oil bosses, were invited for talks sometime since.


"When it comes to oiland investingit's easy to overlook Norway. While political and social upheavals in major oil producersVenezuela, Nigeria, Russia, the Persian Gulfdominate headlines, Norway since 1971 has quietly been pumping massive quantities of crude from the icy waters of the North Sea. Today, Norway is the world's third-largest oil exporter, behind only Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the seventh-largest oil producer. The Norwegians have proven that oil doesn't have to be an obstacle to stability and long-term growth.

Political scientists like to talk about the " 'curse' of oil." Over the past several decades, we've seen the sorry economic state of affairs that ensues when tribal kingdoms, authoritarian regimes, kleptocracies, and left-wing dictatorships get their hands on national oil revenues. Easy oil cash entrenches corrupt establishments, discourages sound long-term economic planning, and is almost never channelled in ways that promote development.

Iraq is on the verge of finding out whether it will succumb to the curse or defeat it. Norway offers an interesting model for the Iraqis to consider. Assuming things ever calm down, Iraq will decide how to use the nation's oil wealth to benefit its putative ownersthe long-suffering Iraqi people. More than a year ago, Steven Clemons of the New America Foundation suggested that Iraq duplicate the Alaska Permanent Fund. Established in the 1970s, the fund guarantees that at least a quarter of all oil revenues received by the state be invested on behalf of the state's hardy residents. It has grown into a huge, highly diversified mutual fund. According to its September 2004 report, the APF has about $28 billion in assets. Each year, it pays out dividends to qualified residents$919.84 per person. And in many ways, it's a classically American approachbuilt on a concept of individual ownership and intended to spur demand and consumption. Last year, the fund injected about $581 million into the state's economy.

Norway has pursued a classically Scandinavian solution. It has viewed oil revenues as a temporary, collectively owned windfall that, instead of spurring consumption today, can be used to insulate the country from the storms of the global economy and provide a thick, goose-down cushion for the distant day when the oil wells run dry.

Less than 20 years after they started producing oil, the Norwegians realized their geological good luck would only be temporary. In 1990, the nation's parliament set up the Petroleum Fund of Norway to function as a fiscal shock absorber. Run under the auspices of the country's central bank, the fund, like the Alaska Fund, converts petrodollars into stocks and bonds. But instead of paying dividends, it uses revenues and appreciation to ensure the equitable distribution of wealth across generations.

Here's how it works. Cash flow from the government's petroleum activitiesthe state owns 81 percent of the aptly named Statoilis funneled into the fund. Last year, the total came to 91.9 billion kroner (about $14 billion). The fund then hires external managers to invest, generally using low-cost indexing strategies. It's conservatively managedmore bonds than stocks, and investments divided equally between Europe and the rest of the world. (Here are the results of six years of active management.)

Of course, the fund's history reveals some of the pitfalls of having socialists manage oodles of cash. The fund didn't start to invest in stocks until 1998, thus missing out on a big chunk of the boom. In 2001, it started a sub-fund to make eco-friendly investmentsgood social policy, dubious asset-management strategy.

But the huge balances mean Norway can happily continue to be heavily socialist without confronting the problems that its Euro-neighbors to the south faceunemployment, high inflation, and huge national debts. Yes, fiscal budget expenditures were a whopping 38.3 percent of gross domestic product in Norway last year. But the country still runs a budget surplus. Last year, per-capita GDP was a healthy $51,755, and both unemployment and inflation are low.

In Norway, the sudden increase in oil prices has meant larger inflows to the fund and enhanced long-term welfare for its citizens. That's not how it goes down in other big oil producing countries. In Russia, the oil boom has enriched oligarchs and increased foreign currency reserves. But the quality of life in Russia continues to deteriorate. Saudi Arabia has been pumping far more oil than Norway and for a far longer time. But its oil revenues tend to flow into the bank accounts of the royal familynot into a segregated account to benefit the public at large. As a result, the richest oil nation on earth still resembles a garden-variety poor country: a 25 percent unemployment rate, tremendous inequality of wealth and assets, a massive public debt, and an undiversified economy dependent on commodity exports.

The Norwegian economy remains heavily dependent on oil (though much less than the Saudi economy): Petroleum industries account for about 17 percent of Norwegian GDP and a hefty 45 percent of exports. But the rapid growth of the fund means Norway won't suffer massively if the oil market suddenly tanks or if production begins to dwindle. (In 30 years, Norway has pumped about 29 percent of its total reserves.) In a land of high taxes, the fund functions as a substitute for national savings. When the government runs deficits, it's allowed to transfer cash out of the funds. Unlike many other oil-dependent economieslike Russia and Saudi ArabiaNorway won't have to alter spending habits dramatically if revenues suddenly decline.

Of course, Iraq isn't directly analogous to Norwayany more than it is directly analogous to Alaska. And I'm sure most Iraqis would rather have a dividend check than see their oil wealth pile up in a vast investment pool. But Iraq has endured enough internal and external shocks in the past few decades. Maybe the shattered nation needs a fiscal shock absorber more than a gift certificate"


Adopting one of the above options could surely be a means to unite a fractious and distrusting people- the Iraqi People could see the New and interim Government in a new light and could, to some degree, see how their resources will aid the People and Iraq.
The reverse of this scenario, are the Iraqi people their Government and the region ready to adopt and welcome the first Democracy in the Middle East?

One thing for sure, setting the terms of any such 'adoption' will take a LONG TIME.

Not sure how this will help the 'half-full' or the 'half-empty' brigade or anyone else, but my hope for the Iraqi People (and Pet holders) is that the delay in announcements is in the name of democracy.

Good Luck
AF

scottie7,
i read something like that a few months back, not sure if the same article or not, i don`t think norway will affect PET`s chances on these contracts, but at least it`s good reading some different articles!.
strange today how lots of buys and the price hardly moves, then a few sells and it drops right away, don`t think the MM`s want our stock do you??!!.
regards,
dexter

Hi
It's a strange stock is Petrel, But as the man/woman said 'a Petrel comes around once in a lifetime' so how would the MMs have greater knowledge than us. They hav'nt got a clue and seem to be playing safe. Probably because no news, end of November etc.
Do you remember back in the dark days, I think it was July!! the article equating Petrel to the wildcat oil man of the 19th Century (his name escapes me at present)they all laughed at him until he struck the first US gusher.

but whatever the MMs reasoning it does make one twitch seeing the steady down trend.
lets see what tomorrow brings.

AF

dexter

I suspect the answer is that the MMs have been marking small-cap and AIM stocks down across the board. ASC is very similar to PET; MPH (Marchpole) had some dramatic buying late in the day without the price budging. With negativity in the market generally I suspect that it is an effort to stop too much selling taking hold when they don't want the stock.

We are bound to get stories like scottie's Norwegian one as people try to explain the delay. The most likely answer is much more simple, that there is a lot of work involved to agree the detail of the contracts and it has spilt over into December. There could be politics involved bit I would have thought that would have surfaced earlier. Keep coming back to the fact that they ahve asked PET to stay mum. As time passes the price may well drift so I hope that folk don't have stop losses in place. But I don't feel like investing more in a hiatus, so its back to sitting on my hands!

Eric

If you have a stop loss you should review it about twice aday, i have lowed my stop loss from 90p to 85p today, with a share like this it would be mad not have a stop loss, no contracts = 40p-60p.

aldwickk

Well, there are arguments both ways. Felt sorry for chap a little while ago who suddenly lost his shares because the stop loss was triggered on a temporary intra-day drop. If you have one you need to keep a weather eye on it but what if you are off playing golf, even working (!) or something. If, heaven forbid, there was an RNS saying it was all off then the MMs are going to have the priced marked heavily down at the opening, so will you actually get a better price? OK, I'm mad, but aren't we all? As has been said many times on this column, the money you have in PET must be money that you 'can afford' to lose.
Having said that, my bet is still 3:1 on although that is down a wee bit in the last few days. What are other's odds?

Eric

Don't think a stop loss will matter with this stock. Any bad news and this will take a 30% hit in one go. Last dog I had with comdirect the share went straight thru' my stop loss and 15% leeway and was shocked to find I was still in it as the stock did not hit my parameters. The stock bounced tho' so I was better off not selling.The MMs create dead cat bounces because they don't want the stock either and a mark up fools the punters into coming back in for a cat thats had its last bounce. Remember they have been told not to make an announcement.z

I have got a guaranteen stop loss on 75% and non-guaranteen on 25%.

very hard day to stomach yesterday, been looking everywhere for anything to cheer me up! Why do i get the feeling im gonna like Friday? Hopeful or stupid ha ha!

Morning one and all,
Something that just occurred to me, the IOM said they expected to AWARD the contracts on 2 tenders in November and SIGN them in December. Now, we know that PET have been "sworn to secrecy" by the IOM, surely it would make good business not to put out an rns saying that they have got whatever until they sign on the dotted line,this would mean an rns in December.

This might seem like i`m clutching at straws, but we have all been hanging on every word that has been said and then disecting it even further, but if you stand back and look at the whole picture it does make sense not to announce something until it is set in stone, especially when you have been told not to.
just my thoughts,
Dexter

interesting to see a mm to mm trade this morning